The Denver Broncos will travel to take on the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9. Here are our betting picks and predictions for this matchup from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-9, 45.5)
Katz: Things you can’t do against the Baltimore Ravens: run the ball. Things you can do against the Ravens: throw the ball. That’s pretty much the crux of the process here.
The Ravens have -0.19 defensive EPA per dropback, the fourth worst in the league. Their 291.4 passing yards per game allowed is the most in the league by a whopping 20 yards.
Sutton is the clear WR1 for the Denver Broncos, and Bo Nix has been playing very good football over the past month. Sutton had that zero-target hiccup against the Saints in Week 7. Otherwise, he’s been over 50 yards in four of his last six. He’s coming off an 11-target, eight-reception, 100-yard game. The Broncos should be trailing and throwing. Sutton should hit 50 in this one.
Pick: Courtland Sutton over 49.5 receiving yards
Soppe: Which of these things isn’t true?
- The Ravens are the perfect team when it comes to betting overs.
- The Broncos are performing above expectations and offer offensive versatility.
Overs are 7-1 in Baltimore games this season, and history is on the side when it comes to this total as well — overs are 36-23-3 (61%) in the last 62 when a team is favored by more than seven points with a sub-47-point total. Lamar Jackson is playing better than he did a season ago, and this game features the only two quarterbacks that ranked top-five in rushing yards in October while also completing two-thirds of their passes.
For me, this is a cheap way to bet on Nix while getting access to the most dangerous offense in the league — I like the number of outs we have in what is projected to be a lopsided contest.
Pick: Over 45.5
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Denver Broncos
Team: Both the Broncos and Ravens are 5-1 over their past six games, with Denver (+66) holding the significant edge in point differential (Baltimore: +43).
QB: Over the past two weeks, Bo Nix is just 1-11 when pressured (43-52 when not pressured). The Ravens rank 27th in pressure rate this season and are coming off of their two lowest pressure rates of the season.
Offense: The Broncos picked up 64.7% of third downs on Sunday, their first game over 36.4% this season.
Defense: The Broncos allow a first down on just 19.% of opponent rush attempts, the third lowest rate in the league (Vikings and Ravens).
Fantasy: Nix is still a raw prospect, but he’s cleared six fantasy points with his legs in four straight and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of those games.
Betting: Denver has covered seven of their past nine games when installed as an underdog by more than six points.
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The Ravens are 1-2 outright when favored by at least seven points this season (they were 17-3 in such spots over the previous four seasons).
QB: Blitz at your own risk – Lamar Jackson has completed 28-of-36 passes against the blitz over the past three weeks.
Offense: In Weeks 1-5, Jackson’s sack-per-pass attempt rate was 3.3%. Since then, it has remained at 8.1%.
Defense: Baltimore’s defensive success rate through four weeks stood at 62.3%, but it has plummeted to 53.4% since
Fantasy: Over his past six games, Zay Flowers has three with over 110 receiving yards and three with no more than 20. On the plus side, three of his five end zone targets this season came on Sunday in Cleveland.
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in six of Baltimore’s last eight home games (2-1 this season).