The Denver Broncos were one of the most pleasant surprise stories of the 2024 NFL season. Despite an 0-2 start with rookie quarterback Bo Nix, Sean Payton’s team rallied to seal the final AFC Wild Card spot in Week 18.
Now, the Broncos will head to Orchard Park to face the second-seeded Buffalo Bills in the franchise’s first playoff game since Super Bowl 50. If Denver pulls off the upset, who would the Broncos see in the Divisional Round of the playoffs?
What Are the Denver Broncos Playoff Scenarios?
As the No. 7 seed, there is only one potential opponent for the Broncos in the Divisional Round.
The key point to remember is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. The lowest remaining seed visits the highest remaining seed, unlike the majority of playoff formats (such as the College Football Playoff), where subsequent matchups are fixed based on the pre-existing bracket.
As the lowest-seeded team in the AFC field, the Broncos can only face the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs will be coming off a bye, with many of their top players receiving three weeks of rest after sitting out the majority of the team’s top players in the 38-0 loss in Week 18 that sent Denver into the postseason.
Pro Football Network projects Denver with a 36.8% chance of upsetting Buffalo, which is the same as its chance to face Kansas City next round. The other two games in the AFC Wild Card round are irrelevant to the Broncos’ Divisional Round path.
Denver came closer than any team to beating Kansas City on its home turf in the regular season, giving the Broncos reason for confidence in a rematch. In Week 10, Denver lost 16-14 after a 35-yard Wil Lutz field goal was blocked on the final play of the game. For perspective, it was tied for the shortest blocked field goal of the season, and teams were 81.6% on field goals of exactly 35 yards in the regular season.
Could the Broncos Host the AFC Championship Game?
As the lowest-seeded team, the Broncos are the only team that mathematically cannot host the AFC Championship Game. Denver’s Week 18 triumph over Kansas City will be its final home game of the season.
Since the 14-team playoff format was implemented in 2020, No. 7 seeds are 1-7 in the Wild Card round. The only win came last season when the Green Bay Packers beat the Dallas Cowboys 48-32 at AT&T Stadium.