The Denver Broncos entered this season with no shortage of question marks. The first year under Sean Payton was a success, as this team saw its win total improve by three. However, that growth could have easily swung in either direction, as they played a league-high seven games decided by a field goal or less.
Payton is as aware as anyone that quality quarterback play is needed to make the NFL’s second season, so it ultimately wasn’t a surprise that he opted to go that way with the No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
But was Bo Nix the right man for the job? Could he learn on the fly, or would it take time to develop into a true threat?
Using PFN’s Playoff Predictor, we break down the scenarios needed for Denver to get a postseason invite.
What Is the Denver Broncos’ Current Playoff Picture?
After a bumpy start to the season with a pair of losses, Denver has put itself in a spot where it controls its own destiny. The ordering of the AFC Wild Card teams is very much in the air heading into the weekend, but Denver’s magic number sits at one with a game at Cincinnati on tap this week and a game against a Kansas City Chiefs team that has the conference’s top seed locked up to finish its regular season.
A win on Saturday against the desperate Cincinnati Bengals would ensure an invite to the dance for the Broncos, their first since winning it all in 2015. They are currently a 3.5-point underdog and are just 2-6 outright this season when sportsbooks label them as the lesser team (25% win rate; NFL underdog average: 28.9%).
Rooks stepping up 👐
📺: #TNFonPrime pic.twitter.com/YP8gM1yvmQ
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 20, 2024
Since beating the undermanned New Orleans Saints in Week 7, the Broncos are just 1-3 on the road, making this a tough spot to lock up a postseason berth.
A Week 18 win against the Chiefs may not sound like a spot you want to be, but with Kansas City having zero motivation, Denver will likely be favored to win that game should their fate still be up in the air. Don’t forget that the Broncos had every chance to win the Week 10 game in Arrowhead, as the reigning champs needed a blocked field goal at the end of regulation to secure the 16-14 victory.
Going winless in their final two games wouldn’t eliminate the Broncos by itself, but it would open the door for the Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, and Miami Dolphins all to pass them in the hierarchy of the AFC.
Of course, those three teams are two games back, so they’d need to win out just to make this a conversation. That said, if any of them do, they’d all be prioritized over Denver.
- Bengals: Would have beaten the Broncos head-to-head in Week 17
- Colts: Would have a better record against the AFC than the Broncos
- Dolphins: Would have a better record against the AFC than the Broncos
As of Saturday afternoon in Week 17, PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives Denver an 86.2% chance of making the playoffs.