The primetime game on Saturday sees the Detroit Lions host the Denver Broncos in a clash of two teams jockeying for playoff positioning. Denver has won six of their last seven games, while Detroit has lost two of their last three.
In this Broncos vs. Lions matchup, should you bet on Russell Wilson and Co. to keep it rolling or on a bounce-back performance from Jared Goff? Let’s dive into the Broncos vs. Lions odds, predictions, and best bets.
Broncos vs. Lions Betting Lines
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- Spread
Lions -4 - Moneyline
Broncos +170, Lions -200 - Total
47.5
Broncos vs. Lions Predictions and Expert Picks
Bearman: This is a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions, as the Lions have lost two of their last three games, and the Broncos have won six of their last seven. If only betting on the NFL was that easy.
It’s hard to understate the turnaround the Broncos have done this year — from an 0-3 start and allowing 70 points against the Miami Dolphins to now being over .500 and right there in the playoff hunt (but no, Sean Payton is not COY).
The Lions, despite recent struggles, will still win the NFC North and likely will fix things before the postseason, but they aren’t this many points better than the Broncos right now. Maybe in Week 10.
Pick: Broncos +4.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)
Blewis: Forgive me that after this 6-1 stretch in their last seven games that I’m still not a believer in this Broncos team. And this is coming from someone who bet them to make the playoffs before the season.
The Broncos continued to get lucky with turnovers last week, and they now lead the NFL in takeaways this season. While their defense is much improved, I’m still not totally sold on their offense, even against a Lions defense that is 30th in EPA/play since their 5-1 start.
The key to beating this Lions’ defense is through the air, and I’m not sure the Broncos have the firepower to do so. Their offense is similar to those Seahawks teams early in Russell Wilson’s career, as they’re a run-first unit that either throws check downs or deep shots. For the season, they’re 25th in pass rate over expected and 27th in completions.
I also like this as a bounce-back spot for the Lions offense. Last week, with Jared Goff playing outdoors in Chicago in December, it was an obvious situation in which to fade the Lions. This week, Goff is back at home and indoors, a significant advantage for him and the passing game. Plus, their RB duo shouldn’t have any issues against the Broncos’ 32nd-ranked rush defense in average yards allowed per carry.
Pick: Lions -4.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: This Week 15 primetime Saturday matchup sees a surging team that is 6-1 in the past seven games facing a team that is flailing around a little after losing two of their last three. It doesn’t quite make sense to me that the Lions are favored, let alone by four points.
On a neutral field I am giving the edge to the Broncos, given how they have been playing recently, so even with a home-field nod to the Lions, that would still be less than a field goal if I were setting the line on this one.
My heart is screaming to take to the Broncos ML with odds as high as +188 in places. However, my head is telling me that feels too easy. My sensible side says to take the Broncos and the points and parlay it with the over.
Four of the Lions’ past five games have gone over 50 points, and two of them have topped 60 points. Both of their last two games in Ford Field have broken the 50-point mark. If you want to play it a little safer, then you could tease the line to Broncos plus a touchdown, and bring the total down to the low 40s.
Pick: Broncos +4.5 and over 48 (+267 at DraftKings)
Katz: For as great as Sam LaPorta has been, he’s actually only gone over this number once in the past five weeks. But matchups matter, and this is a good one.
The Broncos allow 69 receiving yards per game to tight ends, the second-most in the league. 27.3% of their total receiving yards allowed have gone to the position.
The Lions are in for a big-time bounce-back performance, and the way to move the ball on the Broncos through the air is via the tight end. It should be a big night for the rookie.
Pick: Sam LaPorta over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Over their past 10 home games, the Lions are averaging 31.2 PPG. Usually I take home/road splits with a grain of salt, but there is no denying that the indoor nature of Ford Field is comforting to Jared Goff:
- 2022: 23 TDs against 3 INTs on 319 attempts at home.
- 2023: CMP% is 5.2 percentage points higher at home.
Joe Flacco ruined the “elite” word for quarterback evaluation, but Goff is certainly trending in that direction when he plays in front of the Detroit faithful.
MORE: FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
This season, Goff leads active/qualified quarterbacks in on-target rate (81.4%), and I like that to continue against a Broncos defense that creates pressure at the seventh lowest rate. The Lions ranking second in rush rate over expectation also lines up nicely for a clean sheet from Goff, as their role as a favorite suggests that a running script down the stretch is likely.
Pick: Jared Goff under 0.5 interceptions (-125 at FanDuel)
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