While the weather has been good to the NFL and fantasy football managers in recent weeks, as we head deeper into autumn and towards the winter months, that could be set to change.
The first game of Week 6 is set to be impacted by Mother Nature potentially. Let’s take a look at the latest weather report for the Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs game in GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
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Kansas City Weather Report for Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Temperature: Low 70s
- Precipitation: <10% chance at kickoff but increasing throughout the game
- Wind: 21 mph with gusts up to 35 mph during the game
The weather forecast is from the National Weather Service and is correct as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 12.
The current weather forecast for Thursday Night Football does not make pretty reading. One positive is that it looked better as we got closer. Early on Wednesday, there was a 70% chance of rain forecast and gusts up to close to 40 mph. However, as is the way with the weather, we have seen that shift a little.
The rain and the temperature are not a major issue themselves. A wet ball can result in more fumbles and dropped catches, but it does not tend to have a significant impact throughout the game. There might be an odd moment here and there, but it is not like this will be monsoon-level weather.
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The bigger issue is the wind. Gusts up to 35 mph are not insignificant and can impact both the passing and kicking games. It is not quite to the level we saw when the New England Patriots played the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in 2021, but it is not a million miles away.
Can confirm: it's windy.
📺: #NEvsBUF on ESPN
📱: https://t.co/wsVL8IokGf pic.twitter.com/PTfPm0IewN— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2021
That game saw sustained winds of around 25-35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. In that game, New England threw the ball just three times, choosing to run the ball 46 times.
The Bills were bold with their passing game, throwing the ball 30 times, but even Josh Allen’s cannon for an arm struggled, completing just 50% of his attempts.
Now, it should be reiterated that the weather is not expected to be “that” bad in Kansas City, but it certainly could have an impact. Passing numbers may be a little deflated, and we may see teams choosing not to kick field goals or extra points.
Fantasy Football Impact of the Kansas City Weather
Unless we see pictures similar to that of Buffalo in 2021, where the goalposts are swaying, and the ball is boomeranging in midair during pregame, some element of calm needs to be exercised.
Benching Patrick Mahomes would be an overreaction, but his pass catchers might take a blow in terms of their efficiency if deep passing is reduced.
In terms of the Broncos’ offense, they have lived on the deep ball at times this season, and that will be tough in this weather. If you were on the fence about what to do with Russell Wilson, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Marvin Mims, you might consider sitting them down for this contest.
The running backs should all get a boost if this game is wind-impacted. That will force the ball into the hands of the backs more and could lead to some big numbers purely through volume.
In that 2021 game, Damien Harris broke a big run to finish with 110 yards and a touchdown, while Rhamondre Stevenson volume himself to a solid day with 78 yards on 24 attempts.
Isiah Pacheco would seem a reliable starting option in these circumstances, but we thought that about Devin Singletary in that 2021 game, and the Bills only let him touch the ball 10 times. The Chiefs should be smarter than that, especially if they open up a lead.
When it comes to the Broncos, their RB situation is a mess, and the trio of Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Samaje Perine all potentially being involved makes it tough to trust any of them.
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This could well end up being a Thursday Night Football game where the weather renders it largely useless from a fantasy aspect.
Betting Impact of the Kansas City Weather
Weather like we are expecting to see on Thursday usually brings the under into play. Per @Bet_Labs, the under is 612-484-8 (56%) in NFL games since 2003, when the average wind speed is greater than 10 mph. We have already seen the total coming down on this game at the sportsbooks as the weather forecast became more set for the game.
The other thing to note is that suppressed scoring can also bring the underdog into the game more. In that 2021 game between the Patriots and Bills, Buffalo was the favorite, but the weather leveled the playing field. If scoring is tougher to come by, it may be hard for the Chiefs to cover the spread, which is sitting at 11 on DraftKings as of the time of writing.
