The Kansas City Chiefs have won each of the past 15 meetings with the Denver Broncos and are heavily favored to extend that streak. Will they? Let’s dive into the numbers and get more than just a pick against the spread. Here is how I am constructing my same game parlay picks for the first game of Week 6!
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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds
- Spread
Chiefs -10.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +400, Chiefs -535 - Total
48
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Who led Major League Baseball in home runs the last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs?
A big spread, questionable weather, and a game played on short rest amongst divisional opponents who play twice in 2.5 weeks — if there was ever a spot for a weird result, this is it.
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The Broncos ran the ball successfully last week against the Jets (22 carries for 139 yards) and have been routinely gashed on the ground (5.9 yards per carry) this season, leading the betting lines to skew toward run-heavy script on both ends. The weather concerns are fueling that as well, and I think that actually buys us an opportunity to target the pass games in this spot.
Denver will certainly want to establish the ground game in an effort to keep the possession count in check, and that means if we can properly evaluate where the limited number of passes will be directed, we can profit.
This season, Jerry Jeudy has out-targeted Courtland Sutton just one time. Is there a passing of the guard happening in Denver?
Asked to be traded, no.
Followed the entire Panthers team, yes. https://t.co/v61sTEAJL4
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) October 11, 2023
Jeudy’s aDOT is 34.7% higher than that of Sutton, a tough skill set to back in potentially a wind-impacted game. Even if the wind doesn’t wreak havoc on this game, this Chiefs defense is playing at a high level right now, so the 82.1% to 70.6% edge that Sutton holds in catchable target rate (thanks to the lower aDOT) is significant.
The perception remains that Jeudy is the WR1 in Denver, and that’s fine by me. In four of five games this season, a secondary pass catcher has led the team in receiving against the Chiefs. If not for a 46-yard grab with the Broncos down 50 in Week 3, Jeudy would still be searching for his first game this season with more than 52 receiving yards.
How about on the other side of the ball, where Denver has been historically poor through five weeks?
In four straight games, the Broncos have allowed the opposing WR1 to lead the receiver room in yards. That may not seem like a big deal, but it rarely works out that cleanly.
That tells me that teams are having success in scheming “their guy” open, something that is evident by WR1s garnering at least a 26.9% target share in four of five games this season against Denver.
So who is that guy in Kansas City these days? Rashee Rice leads the WR corps in targets and catches this season, thriving with a tiny aDOT (5.6 yards). That not only should be a valuable role if the weather is as bad as projected, but it also picks at the scab of a Broncos defense that allows the seventh-most yards per catch after the reception.
Rice has seen at least five targets in four of five games and was targeted three times in the red zone last week against the Vikings. He has proven the ability to separate from coverage and is a top-15 player in yards per route run.
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The fact of the matter is that he is an ascending player in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense. He’s in a good spot to produce without a role expansion, and I believe that as he continues to impress, his snap share should rise.
- Trivia Answer: Chris Davis (47 homers) edged out Nelson Cruz (44) for the 2015 home-run crown.
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Jerry Jeudy under 56.5 receiving yards, Courtland Sutton 50+ receiving yards, Rashee Rice 40+ receiving yards
- Odds: +699 (on FanDuel)