Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has never lost to the Denver Broncos, and very few people are expecting that 11-game winning streak to come to an end tonight. For the second time this season, we have a double-digit point spread for Thursday Night Football, with Kansas City giving 10.5 points.
After losing the season opener to the Detroit Lions, the Chiefs have won every game since and are one of two AFC teams with a 4-1 record, along with the Miami Dolphins. The Broncos, meanwhile, are sitting at 1-4 and have allowed the most points in the NFL this season — 21 more than the next worst team.
Since the Broncos vs. Chiefs betting odds came out on Sunday night, there hasn’t been any movement on the point spread, but the total has dropped considerably from 51.5. This is despite the Broncos’ historically bad defense and the over hitting in each of their last four games.
Should you lay the points with the Chiefs tonight or take the divisional underdog on a short week? Let’s dive into the Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions and favorite bets from the PFN betting team.
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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.
- Spread
Chiefs -10.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +410, Chiefs -550 - Over/Under
48 - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Arrowhead Stadium - How To Watch
Amazon Prime Video
Bearman: As stated numerous times in these columns, I’m not a fan of laying double digits in the NFL, and I definitely don’t like doing it for Thursday Night Football on short rest. The Chiefs also are usually not ones to cover big spreads either, as they are just 9-12 ATS laying double digits in the Mahomes era.
I would lay the 10.5 before I took the 10.5 because the Broncos are just awful and have allowed a ridiculous 181 points in five games, but I am going a different route here.
Last week, I teased the Dolphins down as double-digit favorites for the same reasons and paired them with the Texans who I teased up. It won fairly easily, and I am going to do the same thing this week, teasing the Chiefs to -4.5 and pairing them with the Bears, getting them up to 8.5 (home vs. the Vikings).
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I only do roughly 5-6 teasers per year and only when I can tease through two key numbers, and you can do that with the Chiefs here.
I’m going going to take the over on Mahomes’ passing touchdowns prop. Just like Mahomes watching tape of the Broncos defense, my eyes are wide when I see +140 on him to go over 2.5 TD passes.
I know the Chiefs offense hasn’t been the same as we have seen in the past, and Mahomes has only reached this number once this season, but he passed for three TDs in both games vs. the Broncos last season, and this defense is far worse and historically bad.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Picks: 6-point teaser Chiefs -4.5 and Bears +8.5 (-120 at DraftKings), Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing TDs (+140 at FanDuel)
Blewis: If someone told you before the season that the Broncos would be 1-4 through five weeks, you would have assumed that Russell Wilson would be the main reason. But he’s been quietly efficient so far this season, with the sixth-best EPA + CPOE composite and leading the 12th-best offense by EPA/play.
Although the Chiefs offense hasn’t been playing up to their standards, they have still been one of the best units in the NFL so far this season. When it comes to the second half, however, it has been a different story.
Through five weeks, they’re averaging the fifth-most PPG in the first half but the 27th-most in the second.
This disparity can be at least partially due to their 41-point win over the Chicago Bears, in which they only scored seven of their 41 points in the second half, but like tonight against the Broncos, they were double-digit favorites that game.
The only concerns here are 1) these teams coming out slow off a short week, and 2) the Chiefs defense shutting down the Broncos, but I like my chances enough to play the first half over while it’s below a key number, especially in a matchup featuring the best quarterback in the NFL going against a historically bad defense.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Pick: Over 23.5 1H points (-120 at FanDuel)
Katz: In four games, Travis Kelce has yet to exceed 69 yards receiving in a single game. He’s 34 years old and has dealt with multiple injuries already, including his current low ankle sprain.
Even if fully healthy, 67.5 yards is a lofty number for a guy averaging just 8.22 yards per reception. Kelce caught 10 passes last week for only 67 yards. He can easily catch 6-8 balls this week and not reach 60 yards.
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Currently banged up, I could easily see Kelce not playing his usual complement of snaps on a short week. The Broncos may have a historically bad defense, but that doesn’t automatically mean Kelce is going to suddenly be efficient.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Pick: Travis Kelce under 67.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: In four straight games, the Broncos have allowed the opposing WR1 to lead the receiver room in receiving yards. That may not seem like a big deal, but it rarely works out that cleanly.
That tells me that teams are having success in scheming “their guy” open, something that is evident by WR1s garnering at least a 26.9% target share in four of five games this season against Denver.
So who is that guy in Kansas City these days? Rashee Rice leads the WR corps in targets and catches this season, thriving with a tiny aDOT (5.6 yards). That not only should be a valuable role if the weather is as bad as projected, but it also picks at the scab of a Broncos defense that allows the seventh-most yards per catch after the reception.
Rice has seen at least five targets in four of five games and was targeted three times in the red zone last week against the Vikings. He has proven the ability to separate from coverage and is a top-15 player in yards per route run.
The fact of the matter is that he is an ascending player in a Mahomes-led offense. He’s in a good spot to produce without a role expansion, and I believe that as he continues to impress, his snap share should rise.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Pick: Rashee Rice over 30.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)