It’s only fitting that the final game of the NFL Week 10 slate is another underwhelming prime-time matchup featuring the Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have player prop bets to give out!
Top Broncos vs. Bills Player Prop Bets To Target
Russell Wilson Player Props
- Passing Yards: 210.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +170/Under -220)
- Rushing Yards: 21.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Soppe: With Wilson coming off of the bye, there are a few moving pieces here, so I’ll lay things out:
- BUF: Second-lowest opponent aDOT
- DEN: 28th in time of possession (BUF: top 10 prior to Week 9)
- Both: Bottom 10 in pace of play
- Wilson: 0 INTs in four of his past five games
Over those past five games, Wilson’s aDOT has dropped by 21.4%. Denver has embraced who they are, and a drag-it-out style of offense is just that. With them and Buffalo playing slow, a low possession count is what I’m banking on, which helps both of my Wilson legs in this play.
Picks: Russell Wilson under 210.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings), Russell Wilson under 0.5 interceptions (-105 at DraftKings)
Jerry Jeudy Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 51.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Longest Reception: 21.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +250
- First Touchdown Scorer: +1700
Blewis: Of quarterbacks that have started in every game this season, Russell Wilson has the fourth-highest percentage of deep throws according to PFF (20 yards or more). Jerry Jeudy leads Broncos pass catchers in deep targets yet trails both Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims in receptions of 20+ yards.
Considering the lack of efficiency there, Jeudy seems due for some regression in converting these big catches, and has a good opportunity here against a struggling Bills defense.
Pick: Jerry Jeudy longest reception over 21.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Josh Allen Player Props
- Passing Yards: 274.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -190/Under +145)
- Rushing Yards: 32.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Blewis: Over his last two games, Josh Allen has rushed for 85 yards on 42.5 yards per game, which is more than double his average from the first seven weeks of the season.
It would be one thing if he was just breaking longer runs, but his attempts are up as well. In fact, he has as many rushing attempts over his last three games as the previous six games combined. At 32.5, I’m not sure the oddsmakers have made a big enough adjustment here.
Pick: Josh Allen over 32.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
James Cook Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 55.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Receiving Yards: 18.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 2.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +130
- First Touchdown Scorer: +800
Soppe: If the game is tight or moving in the favor of the home team, they figure to remain committed to the run game. In wins this season, James Cook is averaging 98.4 scrimmage yards per game, with 71 being his floor.
I understand the danger in looking at Denver’s season-long defensive numbers (league-high 5.4 YPC) because Miami’s 70-piece skews that data. Fine. In the games since…
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- Isiah Pacheco (two games): 67.5 yards/game
- AJ Dillon: 95 yards
- Khalil Herbert: 122 yards
- Breece Hall: 194 yards
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Cook’s role might not be perfect for fantasy football managers due to a lack of scoring equity, but with a stable touch count and explosive potential in his bag (18+ yard touch in six of his past eight games), he should be just fine in this matchup.
Pick: James Cook over 78.5 scrimmage yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Stefon Diggs Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 85.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 6.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
- Longest Reception: 25.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -150
- First Touchdown Scorer: +450
Blewis: A few weeks ago, this would be a smash spot for Stefon Diggs, as this Denver defense was on pace to be the worst in NFL history and allowed Tyreek Hill and DJ Moore to have monster games against them. But since those two games, the Broncos pass defense has improved from 32nd in EPA/play to 17th.
With a yards prop this high, it seems like the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted yet to the new-and-improved Broncos defense, especially when he should see a lot of Patrick Surtain II, perhaps the best cornerback in the NFL.
Pick: Stefon Diggs under 87.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Dalton Kincaid Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 51.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Receptions: 5.5 (Over +124/Under -160)
- Longest Reception: 19.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +185
- First Touchdown Scorer: +1100
Soppe: Dawson Knox got banged up in Week 7, paving the way for Kincaid to earn 26 targets over the past three weeks. That’s not a mistake — he came into the league with a pedigree — and with 23 catches over that stretch, he has very much rewarded the Bills for their confidence in him.
Prior to the Knox injury, one of every 19 Kincaid targets came in the red zone. Since? One of every 6.5, a spike that is even more impactful with the uptick in overall volume. With the Bills a heavy favorite and ranking fourth in pass rate above expectation this season, seeking value on this offense through the air is the play, and Kincaid offers nice value.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown scorer (+185 at DraftKings)
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