The Denver Broncos will face the Buffalo Bills on Wild Card Weekend. We have fantasy football start-sit advice for every fantasy-relevant player for the Broncos and Bills so you can make the best decisions for your lineups.
Are you looking for advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Josh Allen, QB
The presumptive MVP set the NFL record for games with multiple passing touchdowns and a rushing score (six), and we could see such a game this week after getting last week off to rest.
For his career, Allen is averaging 27.8 fantasy points per playoff game, clearing 30 points in half of those contests. If you think he plays a friendly style of game during the regular season, just wait until his season is on the line — 56.3 rushing yards per playoff game with multiple passing touchdowns in each of his past four.
Excluding the one-snap effort from Sunday, Allen has been held without multiple passing touchdowns OR a rushing touchdown just once since Week 5 (Week 16 vs. Patriots). There’s no reason to think that the Allen takeover season ends this week, even against a tough defense (Lamar Jackson completed 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards and three scores when the Broncos came to town).
Bo Nix, QB
Bo Nix made NFL history as the first rookie QB with 3+ TD passes and a 75% completion rate in four games. He also matched the franchise record for such games in a season (Peyton Manning had four in both 2012 and 2013). We knew that Sean Payton got his guy in the draft, we just had no idea that this would be a fantasy-friendly situation from the jump.
Everyone is picking the Bills to win this game, but few people figure to land on Nix. In what figures to be a fantasy-friendly script for this passing game, Nix could very well be put in a position where he needs to do it all, a nice role given the discounted price in the DFS streets.
Buffalo has plenty of strengths, but they are the worst playoff team in getting off the field (43.8% opponent third-down conversion rate; NFL average: 39.7%) and struggle against the slot (fifth-highest completion percentage). Those weaknesses can elevate Nix’s floor, something that is very appealing given that we are aware of his ceiling potential via Courtland Sutton and/or his rushing ability.
I’m not clicking on Nix in a cash setting where half the field is paid out, but if you’re in a top-heavy payout contest, he’s a very lively option.
James Cook, RB
James Cook was one of the more valuable fantasy assets during the regular season (18 touchdowns), and while your instinct might be to fade him with the thought that Josh Allen will put on the cape now that we are in the postseason, I’d fight that thought.
There are six players since 2000 to record 18 carries and four catches in consecutive playoff games — Cook’s name is on that list (Curtis Martin, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Christian McCaffrey, and Isiah Pacheco being the others). The touch floor has been stable this season, and given this offense’s potency, his volume holds significant value.
With Ray Davis and Ty Johnson not posing much of a threat, the carries are safe, and we’ve seen the passing-game role stabilize (3+ targets in six of his past seven). The stingy nature of this Denver defense is a clear concern (tops in success rate against the run and third-best red-zone unit), but I expect that to very much be accounted for in terms of ownership.
The way the pricing is laid out, Bucky Irving will garner more attention in this range and Josh Allen’s managers will naturally gravitate away from this backfield. You’ve got my green light on Cook in all formats, and I’ll be even if not ahead of the market when it comes to ranking him for 2025.
Ray Davis, RB
Ray Davis exploded in one game as the lead back, but with James Cook healthy and the rookie seemingly hitting something of a wall, there’s not nearly enough meat on this bone to have my interest in any format.
Over the last four weeks, 30.3% of Davis’ carries have failed to gain yardage. For a player living in the 5-8 touch range weekly, a trend like that is more reason than I realistically need to look just about anywhere else. If I’m paying down this week, it’ll be at the WR or TE position — I’m not getting cute with a player like Davis against the NFL’s fourth-best run defense by EPA.
Audric Estimé, RB
Audric Estimé has scored in two of his past three games, but you’d have to really be looking to be different to go this direction with Denver being such a big underdog.
NFL dropback rates, 2015-24:
- Trailing: 67.7%
- Tied: 58.2%
- Leading: 51.7%
Rushing attempts could be limited for the Broncos, and that’s a death sentence when it comes to any hope for Estimé. Is it true that a running back in a Sean Payton scheme can scam his way to PPR points? It sure is, but we have no proof that the rookie would be used in such a role.
In a blowout win over the Falcons, he caught three passes in five plays – he has two other catches on his NFL résumé. We are looking at a player who doesn’t have a touch gaining 10+ yards in two months and projects for, at best, 6-8 touches.
I’m fine with targeting uncertainty in a playoff setting, but we seem to have a level of certainty in Estimé not being a consistent part of this offense.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB
I’m going to do a few irresponsible things here to prove a point. Stick with me here.
In Year 2, Christian McCaffrey picked up 41.8% of his rushing yards after first contact and gained at least 10 yards on 14.2% of his carries.
In Year 2, Jaleel McLaughlin picked up 41.2% of his rushing yards after first contact and gained at least 10 yards on 14.2% of his carries.
Want some more propaganda? You’re in the right spot.
Since Week 12, McLaughlin’s 10+ yard carry rate was up to 18.5%, the highest in the league. The next players on that list among qualifiers:
2. Derrick Henry: 17.2%
3. Jahmyr Gibbs: 16.2%
4. Bijan Robinson: 14.6%
We clearly only have so much film to go on for McLaughlin, but he looks like more than just the best back in Denver. Sean Payton loves what Bo Nix brings to the table, but I don’t think getting into a shootout with Josh Allen is on the to-do list this week, furthering my belief that we could get a true breakout performance from this backfield against a Bills defense that ranks 23rd at preventing running back yardage before contact.
I’ve got him penciled into my first run of a DraftKings GPP lineup for the entire Wild Card slate:
- QB: Jayden Daniels (at TB)
- RB: Bucky Irving (vs. WAS)
- RB: McLaughlin (at BUF)
- WR: Ladd McConkey (at HOU)
- WR: Cooper Kupp (vs. MIN)
- WR: Marvin Mims (at BUF)
- TE: Zach Ertz (at TB)
- FLEX: Keon Coleman (vs. DEN)
- D/ST: Eagles (vs. GB)
Javonte Williams, RB
Thanks, but no thanks. Javonte Williams’ role has been trending in the wrong direction for a while now, and what I saw last week was more than enough for me to have zero interest.
With their season on the line, Jaleel McLaughlin (41.7% share) out-snapped Williams (29.2%) in a meaningful way, and that was the game plan coming in — McLaughlin’s edge was 61.9% to 23.8% in the first quarter.
Williams has multiple receptions in all but two games this season, so if you think the Broncos aren’t competitive in the least, maybe he will get there, but that’s a thin path to success and not one I believe in. Williams is in the final year of his deal, so even if that game script were to play out, wouldn’t Sean Payton be more likely to get his younger options some playoff reps?
I’ll have exposure to plenty of players this weekend, but Williams will not be on that list.
Keon Coleman, WR
The Broncos ranked second in the league in pressure rate this season and are the only team inside the top five to qualify for the postseason. Could that open the door for a Keon Coleman breakout? His target rate is the least impacted when Josh Allen is under duress among Bills receivers, and the Broncos have quietly allowed the eighth-highest completion percentage on deep balls since Week 11.
Bills pass catchers’ target splits with Allen, 2024:
- Coleman: 16.3% when pressured vs. 18.2% when not
- Khalil Shakir: 21.2% when pressured vs. 31.3% when not
- Amari Cooper: 12.8% when pressured vs. 29.3% when not
- Dalton Kincaid: 21% when pressured vs. 32.2% when not
I’m nothing if not a sharer of information, so while I’m not labeling Coleman as the next DK Metcalf, the profiles are similar.
Metcalf’s profile, 2024:
- Second-round pick standing 6’4” tall
- 18.8% regular season on-field target share (13.7 aDOT)
- TD on 7% of targets
Coleman’s profile, 2024:
- Second-round pick standing 6’4” tall
- 17.6% regular season on-field target share (15.5 aDOT)
- TD on 7% of targets
That’s at least interesting, isn’t it? Metcalf, like Coleman, had a mid-season explosion game with 120+ yards and a 50-yard reception while earning double-digit targets in the regular season finale.
Metcalf’s introduction to the postseason was a 7-160-1 showing in Philadelphia. Asking for that is a lot, but I like the way things line up for the 33rd-overall pick.
Amari Cooper, BUF
Amari Cooper was heavily used in the shootout loss to the Rams but has largely been underwhelming since coming to Upstate New York (37.1 receiving yards per game).
His 14.4-yard aDOT with the Bills creates a path to the upside against a stingy Broncos defense, but if Denver elects to stick Patrick Surtain II on him and make other receivers beat them, this could be another disappointing performance.
It was Tee Higgins, not Ja’Marr Chase, who led Cincinnati receivers in fantasy points against Denver. It was Tyler Lockett, not DK Metcalf. It was Chris Godwin, not Mike Evans.
I still have Cooper ranked the highest of the Buffalo WRs, but not by much — this is an interesting spot for Keon Coleman, and if Denver gives him single coverage, this could be another situation where the secondary receiver puts up primary production.
Marvin Mims Jr., WR
It’s not what you said, it’s how you said it.
We’ve all heard it and we all fear what comes next – luckily, the fantasy football version is a positive. For Marvin Mims Jr. in this Sean Payton offense, it’s not how often he is on the field, but how he’s used. He ran 146 routes this season, just three more than a season ago, but he generated 22 more targets and scored 47.1 more fantasy points.
We often preach patience with young receivers throughout their rookie season, but considering that growth is not linear at the position, why not extend that courtesy into Year 2 with a changing offensive structure?
Mims has been coming on in a big way and played a critical role in the Broncos qualifying for the postseason … and I think he could keep the good times rolling!
The Bills own a bottom-five blitz rate and a bottom-10 pressure rate this season (their pressure rate sits at 32.5%, the lowest among playoff teams). Not to be overly dramatic but Mims turns into an All-Pro receiver when Bo Nix isn’t sped up.
Yards per route run when their QB is not pressured, 2024:
- CeeDee Lamb: 2.70
- Malik Nabers: 2.66
- Justin Jefferson: 2.64
- Mims: 2.62
- Drake London: 2.61
- Tee Higgins: 2.54
The Bills rank 20th in opponent deep completion percentage (45%) and 21st in deep touchdown rate (7.3%), leaving the door open for Mims to make the type of splash play that will be needed for the road team to pull off the upset.
The risk goes without saying – the next game Mims runs 15 routes in a Nix game will be his first. We can force Sean Payton’s hand to put him on the field, but we can be impressed with the chances he has gotten: 28 catches (32 targets) on his 84 routes since Week 10.
The Broncos rank sixth in pass rate over expectation this season after checking in at 24th in Payton’s first season. It’s almost like having a hand-picked QB to run your system helps, go figure. I expect that “expectations” part of that metric to work in our favor with Denver opening as an 8.5-point underdog.
There’s no flier I like more in Wild Card DFS contests this week. For playoff formats, the math changes a bit, as you’d have to like Denver to advance more than I do, so tread lightly there. In weekly GPP formats, by all means, shoot your shot!
Khalil Shakir, WR
My initial thought with this matchup was that I’d be in on Khalil Shakir. The idea that he’d likely be able to avoid Patrick Surtain II while in the slot and that Denver’s second-ranked run defense (by EPA) could force Buffalo to supplement the traditional ground game with short, quick-hitting passes had me intrigued.
Upon further review, the call on the field has been overturned.
The Broncos are the best defense against the slot in terms of touchdown rate and rank third in opponent passer rating when throwing there. Now, they are only average when it comes to completion percentage and yards per attempt, so maybe there is a path for Shakir to pay off his price tag, but I don’t see much in the way of a ceiling for him.
You just read why I’m high on Keon Coleman as a value play this week, and I’m only willing to take on this Denver defense in so many ways. Shakir’s catch rate was what made him a special fantasy asset for the better part of 25 straight weeks, but the road has gotten a little bumpy of late.
- Weeks 1-9: 93.3% catch rate
- Weeks 10-17: 61.8% catch rate
If we can no longer take efficiency as a given, I’m not willing to do the mental gymnastics it takes to roster a player like Shakir in this specific matchup. That’s a shame because I think he’s a solid player who means a lot to a team that should win. Unfortunately, we have to make some tough calls in a six-game slate – leaving him out of my lineups is one of them.
Courtland Sutton, WR
Courtland Sutton has scored 18 times on 225 targets over the past two seasons (previous two seasons: four touchdowns on 207 targets). Touchdowns can be fluky on a game-to-game basis, nevermind season-to-season, but the usage trends are very much in his favor, and that is what I’m comfortable with in this profile
This season, Sutton has seen a career-high 17 end-zone targets and has been thrown at on 31.8% of his red-zone routes (up from 23.3% last season). This offense is better than we could have imagined and they are routinely trusting their WR1 with finishing drives, something that makes the spike in scoring rate much more sustainable.
And it’s only getting better.
During the second half of the season, Sutton has seen 11 end-zone targets, a number that trails only triple-crown winner Ja’Marr Chase, future Hall of Famer Davante Adams, and maybe the best receiver in the sport in Justin Jefferson. The Bills are an average red-zone defense that allows touchdowns on 24.6% of all drives (22nd), giving us every reason to think that Denver’s WR1 can once again produce.
All the signs look great, including the projected game script, but this is the spot where I’m getting my leverage. I’m not confident that any member of Denver garners a ton of ownership. Thus, I’m doubling down in a non-correlated way for my upside lineup and it doesn’t include their alpha target earner.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
I’m bullish on the Bills from a trending standpoint, even in a matchup that finished the regular season atop our Defense+ metrics, and Dalton Kincaid is a part of that optimism.
- 2024: Targeted on 27.2% of routes
- 2023: Targeted on 19.8% of routes
Being on the field has been the problem, and that’s a real problem. Kincaid hasn’t played half the snaps in any of his three games back after missing a month, though the underlying metrics support the skill set, and I’m okay with betting on talent at this position more than others.
A fully functional version of Kincaid was on the field for 63.4% of snaps last season. To me, that potential is in play now that we are in a win-or-go-home setting, and Dawson Knox just doesn’t offer the same juice to an offense that needs to produce at a high level for this team to excel.
With Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta on bye this week, I wouldn’t look at you sideways if you projected Kincaid to lead the position in PPR points during the NFL’s second season, an upside that isn’t being priced into his playoff-long ADP right now.
Dawson Knox, TE
We are nearing the three-month anniversary since the last time Dawson Knox found paydirt, and Jan. 22 will mark two years since his last game with five receptions.
Knox is a nice veteran presence on a team that needs to be buttoned up if they are going to earn the first championship in franchise history. However, that doesn’t make him a viable fantasy option, no matter the format.
Knox’s participation rate:
- Week 14 at Rams: 81.5% snap share (29 routes)
- Week 15 at Lions: 73.5% snap share (26 routes)
- Week 16 vs. Patriots: 56.9% snap share (20 routes)
- Week 17 vs. Jets: 46.8% snap share (14 routes)
It’s never the wrong time to make the right call. Dalton Kincaid is the superior target earner, and Knox’s role is going the way of the dinosaur. There are punt options available across the board in any slate that are more worth your time.