The Denver Broncos are 9-6 with a top-tier defense and some promising play from rookie Bo Nix. All they need in the next two weeks is a win to get in the playoffs and end the second-longest playoff drought in the league (eight seasons).
The Cincinnati Bengals have been the epitome of a two-faced team this season. One of the league’s most dynamic offenses and worst defenses has caused them to go 7-8 up to this point. Yet, despite all their woes; they aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. They need literally everything to go right to sneak in as the No. 7 seed.
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Bengals -3.5 - Moneyline
Bengals (-175); Broncos (+145) - Over/Under
50 total points - Game Time
4:30 p.m ET - Location
Paycor Stadium
Broncos vs. Bengals Preview and Prediction
The Bengals are ranked fifth in offensive EPA (expected points added) per play, ninth in success rate, and score the sixth-most points per game this season, according to TruMedia. Cincinnati’s offense lacks explosives, ranking 15th in passes of 20 or more yards and 24th in rushes of 10 or more yards. One would think a team with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins catching passes from Joe Burrow would be explosive but that has not been the case.
Instead, the Bengals’ offense has found success being efficient on early downs and Burrow making up for it when needed. The Bengals have the lowest average third-down distance in the league at 7.05 yards to go. They also rank fourth in EPA in likely pass situations and sixth in late-down situations. What I find impressive is they do this with a league average rushing game that ranks 18th in yards per rush and 18th in rushing EPA.
While still good against the blitz, the Bengals drop to 0.09 EPA per play (14th) when blitzed. This is especially important to evaluate when playing a Denver defense that blitzes at the third-highest rate in the league. Interestingly, the Broncos are much more effective in non-blitzes (first in defensive EPA) than blitzes (14th in EPA).
Denver ranks first in defensive EPA per play, second in success rate, 15th in passing explosive rate allowed, and fifth in rushing explosive rate allowed. Denver’s defense is much more effective in zone coverage than man (first in EPA vs. 21st in EPA). This perfectly aligns with a Bengals offense that also prefers zone coverage (fourth in EPA vs. ninth in EPA).
Offensively, the Broncos rank 21st in EPA and success rate. They predicate themselves on dump-off passes and yards after the catch (YAC), ranking third in proportion of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage and 14th in YAC per game. They rank ninth in scramble EPA and 12th in designed quarterback runs, often leaning on Nix’s ability with his legs.
Cincinnati ranks 29th in defensive EPA per play, 30th in success rate, and 24th in pressure rate. Despite being awful in general, they are slightly above average against designed quarterback runs and scrambles, ranking 13th in both. The Bengals should be effective against a YAC-heavy offense, considering they have the seventh-least missed tackles per game.
The Broncos’ offensive line is arguably the best in the league this season, ranking first in PFF pass blocking grade, sixth in pressure rate allowed, and seventh in quick pressure rate allowed. Because of its stout blocking, Denver has not had to worry about an offense that ranks 26th in EPA when pressured. The Ravens, Chargers, Steelers, and Seahawks are the four teams that were able to generate an above-average pressure rate against Denver.
The Chargers were likely able to get pressure based on their blitz rate and coverage schemes. They are one of the best teams at varying coverages, and pairing this with a high blitz rate is what helped them get pressure on Nix. Both the Steelers and Seahawks have top-flight defensive lines that get pressure on everyone. The Bengals don’t have the matchups along the defensive line, outside of Trey Hendrickson, to get pressure on Nix.
Overall, this should be a very good game. Both teams have a lot to play for, and the Bengals’ offense will find out if they can dominate the league’s best defense. I am going to give the Bengals the slight edge here as I think their defense matches up surprisingly well.
My pick: Bengals ML (-175)