While Brock Purdy’s fantasy football outlook for 2024 could strongly correlate to a potential trade of Brandon Aiyuk, the talented wide receiver is still with the San Francisco 49ers at the time of this writing.
Still, Purdy showed plenty of reasons in 2023 why he’s vastly underpriced in fantasy drafts. Purdy is known for being criminally underpaid, given his accolades, but prospective fantasy team names like “The Brockness Monster” are warranted, thanks to his production.
Below, I’ll examine Purdy’s fantasy value and tell you whether or not he’s a good pick in your draft.
Brock Purdy’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
My ideal fantasy football strategy is to wait on the quarterback position, and Purdy’s current ADP allows for that.
Right now, Purdy is QB11, directly behind Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, and Joe Burrow.
In fantasy leagues that ended in Week 17 last season, Purdy finished as QB6 after throwing for 4,280 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, adding 144 rushing yards and two TDS on the ground.
Purdy saw massive improvements on deep passes 20+ yards downfield. In 2023, 10.6% of his attempts fell into this category, and he threw for 956 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception.
The team around Purdy hasn’t really changed. If anything, it’s only gotten better with the addition of WR Ricky Pearsall in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Could his drop in ADP be due to some speculating regression in throwing the deep ball? Do some expect Aiyuk to be traded?
I ask these questions because I simply cannot figure it out.
The 49ers have a bye week in Week 9 and have nine games against teams who, last season, ranked in the bottom half of average passing yards allowed over the final three games.
Is Brock Purdy a Good Fantasy Pick?
There’s no question that Purdy is an excellent pick in fantasy drafts. He is currently going somewhere in the sixth round, right around where the running back dead zone starts.
Players like Jayden Daniels, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Caleb Williams, and Justin Herbert are behind Purdy. All of those players are either rookies or have some health concerns.
Purdy has proven to be an efficient passer, completing 69.4% of his passes last season (498 dropbacks) and producing a 67.1% completion rate in 2022 (188 dropbacks).
Among quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks, Purdy was second in completion percentage only behind Prescott, who was 0.1% better, and Purdy played in one less game.
The only potential downside to Purdy is that he’s not exactly the most mobile. However, the weapons in his offense — coupled with his ability to deliver passes and complete them at a high rate — make him an incredibly comfortable asset to have. He’s surrounded by perennial All-Pro players.
Even if Aiyuk is traded, he still has Pearsall, running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, and tight end George Kittle to work with.
Also remember that Purdy attempted just 444 passes, which, across quarterbacks with 400 or more dropbacks, only exceeded Joshua Dobbs, Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder, Zach Wilson, and Burrow — all players who played 15 games or less.
Remember, he finished as QB6 with those numbers.
Now, according to Matt Barrows and David Lombardi of The Athletic, they’re expecting the 49ers to be more pass-heavy than ever, which can only help Purdy’s statistical output.
I’d strongly argue that Purdy belongs closer to the QB5 range, and I’d take him ahead of players like Love, Prescott, Burrow, C.J. Stroud, and, potentially, Kyler Murray.