The San Francisco 49ers’ Super Bowl hopes undoubtedly took a hit when Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a season-ending foot injury against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13. Now that they’re forced to start seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy, the only “Mr. Irrelevant” to ever complete an NFL pass, it might not be realistic to think the 49ers will be hoisting the Lombardi in February.
Yet, there is a path forward for San Francisco. Even if a Super Bowl trophy no longer seems like an achievable goal, the alignment of the NFC playoff picture means a deep playoff run and a conference title game appearance aren’t out of the question, even with Purdy under center.
How the San Francisco 49ers Fit Into the NFC Playoff Picture
In some NFL seasons, entering the playoffs as a third seed wouldn’t have been all that different from starting the postseason as a No. 4 seed. Seeds 1-4 are always division winners, and with the top seed securing a first-round bye, the other three division champions are left to play the three Wild Card winners, which are generally less talented and less accomplished clubs.
But that isn’t the case in 2022. The Cowboys are one of the five best teams in the NFL — you could make a case they’re the best team in the league without making too many waves. DraftKings gives Dallas the NFL’s fourth-best Super Bowl odds despite the fact they’re unlikely to get a first-round bye.
And yet, they’re stuck as the NFC’s No. 5 seed because they just happen to play in the same division as the 11-1 Eagles.
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The Cowboys have a 78.1% chance to stick in that fifth spot, according to Football Outsiders’ playoff odds. There’s a chance they could overtake the Eagles for the NFC East lead and the No. 1 seed, and a much slimmer possibility they slip to a lower Wild Card slot.
But Dallas is overwhelmingly likely to enter the tournament as the top Wild Card team and take on the No. 4 seed, which will probably be the NFC South champion Buccaneers.
This is all good news for the 49ers, who have a 72.7% chance to land the second or third seed, per FO. San Francisco is currently in the third spot, meaning they’d get to avoid the Cowboys in Round 1 and instead face a Wild Card team like the Giants, Seahawks, or Commanders.
If we assume the 49ers will stay as the NFC’s No. 3 seed, we can outline an extremely favorable playoff journey that could culminate with an NFC Championship Game appearance.
If the Cowboys defeat the Buccaneers on Wild Card Weekend, and the second-seeded Vikings and the 49ers take down their opponents, Dallas would travel to Philadelphia to play the Eagles while Minnesota and San Francisco would square off in the Divisional Round.
So not only could Purdy and the 49ers steer clear of the Cowboys in the first round, but they could avoid both Dallas and Philadelphia through the first two rounds and not face either team until a potential NFC title game. This would create a significantly less challenging postseason path for San Francisco, all made possible by the Cowboys’ strength and the NFL’s re-seeding protocols.
There’s still a lot that could go wrong for the 49ers in this scenario. Getting to play, say, the Seahawks and Vikings in the first two rounds instead of the Cowboys and Eagles would obviously be preferable, but it’s not as if Seattle and Minnesota are pushovers.
Plus, we really don’t know what Purdy is or isn’t capable of. The Iowa State product was little more than a game manager in his relief appearance against the Dolphins, ranking 25th in adjusted net yards per attempt on the week while posting the shortest average depth of target (5.4 yards) on the slate.
Purdy will likely improve as his career track record extends beyond a single game, but he probably represents a steep dropoff from the always-underrated Garoppolo.
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Still, there are reasons to be excited about the 49ers even without Jimmy G. San Francisco boasts an above-average offensive line and one of the best collections of skill talent in the NFL. Kyle Shanahan is an excellent play-caller who’s helped quarterbacks like Nick Mullens succeed. And DeMeco Ryans’ defense can shut down even the most explosive of offenses, as evidenced by their effort against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins on Sunday.
Th 49ers’ season isn’t over. Can they compete with the truly elite teams like the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, and Cowboys with Purdy under center? Probably not.
But a campaign that ends with two playoff wins and an NFC Championship Game appearance is still a feasible outcome, which is relatively astounding for a team on its third quarterback of the year.