The Jacksonville Jaguars made a concerted effort to add some vertical playmakers to this passing attack entering the 2024 NFL season. The headliner of this group was Brian Thomas Jr., who the Jags spent the No. 23 overall pick on in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Possessing an elite blend of size and speed, can Thomas emerge as a productive deep threat in this Jacksonville offense in 2024?
Brian Thomas Jr.’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 193.0
- Receptions: 63.8
- Receiving Yards: 956.8
- Receiving TDs: 5.3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Thomas This Year?
If you watched Thomas’ highlight tape from his final year at LSU, I have a hard time imagining you wouldn’t get a little excited about the prospect of him catching bombs 40 yard down the field from Trevor Lawrence to start his NFL career.
Thomas’ exceptional size (6’3”, 209 pounds), elite speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine), and explosive athleticism (38.5” vertical jump) all appeared on the tape from his 2023 season — which gives him the physical tools to be a menace as a vertical threat operating as an X or Z receiver at the professional level.
Additionally, the foot suddenness and lateral agility for a player that size suggest Thomas had some of the essential building blocks to be an effective separator along the vertical plane outside of just running a post or go route.
Yet, Thomas’ lack of consistent route-running refinement has led to some reports of a disappointing slow start to training camp — which is certainly quieting some of the buzz around his fantasy outlook entering his rookie year.
The target competition in Jacksonville isn’t exactly terrible. Christian Kirk is a very effective hybrid slot operator, Evan Engram is quietly one of the best receiving TEs in the league, and Gabe Davis, who may be volatile, does have a proven track record of being a capable vertical weapon in the passing game during his time in the NFL.
A slow start to training camp for a rookie wideout whose best attributes entering the pros weren’t about the technical refinement shouldn’t be too concerning yet. A pessimist would likely start to wonder if Thomas’ 68 receptions for 1,177 yards and 17 TDs last year — which was his lone season of noteworthy production in college — were more a product of his exceptional athleticism flourishing alongside another elite WR while catching passes from a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback at a lower level of competition.
Fantasy managers should likely temper there fantasy expectations for Thomas early in the season and bank on his role expanding significantly over the back half of his rookie year.
Thomas’ ADP at No. 121 overall in the 11th round as the WR49 helps shift any high expectations to a more reasonable place for a rawer prospect entering his rookie year.
Given Thomas’ immense amount of physical ability combined with the departure of Calvin Ridley — who operated as an outside vertical playmaker in this offensive scheme in 2023 — gives the rookie the type of upside fantasy managers should be targeting in the later rounds.
In order to take Thomas in this range, you would be passing on other proven veteran wideouts like Tyler Lockett, Curtis Samuel, and Romeo Doubs. If you are looking for a reliable weekly floor in this spot, then I would go with all three options over Thomas.
Yet, if you wanting to take a chance with the WR4 or WR5 on your fantasy roster who could blossom into a WR2-type contributor over the back half of the season — then Thomas would be the pick.
