The Jacksonville Jaguars spent a first-round draft pick on WR Brian Thomas Jr. Stepping into a situation where he can immediately be the team’s WR2, how high is Thomas’ fantasy football upside, and should managers target him in drafts?
Brian Thomas Jr.’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
There is a clear “big three” of the 2024 rookie WR class: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. After those three, there wasn’t much consensus from scouts and analysts about who the next one should be, but the Jaguars believe that guy is Thomas.
Taken at No. 23 overall, Thomas was the fourth of seven first-round wide receivers in the 2024 NFL Draft. An early declare, Thomas enters the NFL coming off a truly spectacular junior season. Playing alongside Nabers at LSU, Thomas caught 68 passes for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Thomas’ prospect profile certainly shows a lot of upside, but he’s also far from a complete prospect. While his junior year was fantastic, it was his only quality season at college, having not done much as a freshman or sophomore, totaling 720 yards in 25 games.
It’s too soon to draw any definitive conclusions about Thomas as a talent. However, he does project to be a useful NFL receiver. If not a true X receiver, Thomas could become a very respectable complementary WR2, which still can be an effective role for fantasy purposes.
Thomas also landed in a pretty favorable spot. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are the favorites to lead Jacksonville in targets, but there’s room for a third guy, even for a mediocre QB like Trevor Lawrence.
Thomas isn’t the only newcomer. The Jaguars signed former Buffalo Bills WR Gabe Davis as well, but he’s not exactly the type of guy who is going to command volume.
Davis should be more of a situational deep threat who doesn’t play nearly every snap. It would be very surprising and a major indictment on Thomas’ ability if he’s unable to significantly out-target Davis. I fully expect Thomas to play over Davis in two-receiver sets.
Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones are both gone, leaving behind 41% of the targets. That is plenty to go around for Thomas and Davis, the majority of which I would expect to go to the rookie.
Even if Thomas doesn’t start out strong, your interest in him shouldn’t be based on his overall numbers, but rather an expected natural progression during the season. Thomas may very well be an unstartable WR4/5 over the first few weeks before emerging into an every-week WR3 by midseason. I would sign up for that right now.
I’m not certain Thomas will be good, but I like investing in the unknown, especially when it’s relatively inexpensive. Thomas’ ADP sits at WR49, No. 126 overall. Having ranked him as my WR40, it appears I’m quite ahead of consensus when it comes to Thomas.
Rookie wide receivers are historically good investments in redraft leagues. Given how late Thomas goes at his position, he’s definitely someone fantasy managers should be looking at as their WR4, or perhaps even WR5.