There are plenty of tough decisions for fantasy football managers in Week 2, and RB is often the toughest of the lot. This week, one decision could be between Najee Harris, Brian Robinson Jr., and J.K. Dobbins. All three RBs went in an area of fantasy drafts where you could have taken all three of them. Which of the three backs should you start this week?
Which RB Should You Choose from Brian Robinson Jr., Najee Harris, and J.K. Dobbins in Week 2?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Harris is the player to start. His projected 12.3 points include 55.5 rushing yards, 2.5 receptions, and 14.7 receiving yards. That projection outperforms the consensus projections for Robinson (12.0 points) and Dobbins (11.6 points), but not by much.
Robinson’s Fantasy Outlook this Week
The Washington isn’t a committee. The overall snap shares were similar, but break it down further and there is only one answer as to which running back in Washington you want sniffing your lineup.
Snap share between the 30s:
- Robinson: 50%
- Ekeler: 50%
Snap share inside the 30:
- Robinson: 77.8%
- Ekeler: 33.3%
Robinson has made nice skill set strides up to this point in his career and is a legitimate threat as both a between-the-tackles runner and a receiver in space. He gave fantasy managers 15.2% more production given his area of touches than the average back last season, and that rate was 24.2% in the Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers.
I think it’s fairly safe to assign Robinson a 15-20 opportunity projection with decent scoring equity weekly – that’s going to land him in your fantasy lineups consistently.
Harris’ Fantasy Outlook this Week
If you’ve played in the same league for a while, the odds are good that everyone has had their turn rostering Harris, plugging him in as an unsatisfying RB2, and moving on with their life. It’s a right of passage. And once every manager in your league has shared that experience, you’ve formed a bond.
Sadly, nothing is different this time around. With a compromised Warren, Harris wasn’t any different than you would have guessed – he just did it on a few more touches.
Harris accounted for 20 of 26 Pittsburgh running back carries and, if not for an outlier 20-yard “burst,” we are looking at a 19-carry, 50-yard day at the office along with two catches for nine yards.
If that’s not vintage Harris, I don’t know what is.
With Warren still at far less than full strength and the Steelers facing the Broncos and their blitzing, I’d expect something very similar this week.
Against the Falcons, Harris finished as RB35 in fantasy points and RB19 in expected points. Split the difference; move him up a few spots for the safety of his role and poor matchups for others – yep, an unappealing RB2 for the 47th consecutive week.
Dobbins’ Fantasy Outlook this Week
Was there a more impressive player in Week 1 than Dobbins? He became the third Chargers back this millennium to have multiple carries of 45+ yards in a single game (LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Turner) and was running so hard that he earned a 59.3% snap share in a backfield that was believed to be Gus Edwards’ to open the season.
Harbaugh may not be a fantasy-friendly head coach, but he did tell us heading into last week that he’d ride the hot hand in the running game and he stayed true to that.
Of course, there are two sides to that coin. What happens when the big plays don’t happen?
Dobbins has played 25 games in his 4+ seasons as a pro, and that creates reasonable doubt when it comes to evaluating his long-term value.
But that’s not what this article is about. The touch count is never going to be elite, but the “hot hand” approach suggests that we should get another 12-15 touch afternoon in a good spot this week, and that lands Dobbins as a RB2 for me that I’m comfortable plugging in.
Selling Dobbins is an easy suggestion, but is anyone buying given his résumé? Enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts. Wins this time of year mean just as much as those in November when it comes to qualifying for the postseason.
