After being largely an afterthought heading into 2023, Washington Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. wound up being one of the better fantasy football values at the position. On a revamped offense with a mobile rookie QB and one of the best receiving backs of all time, how should fantasy managers approach Robinson in 2024 drafts?
Should You Select Brian Robinson Jr. at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 94th Overall (RB32)
- 2023 Recap: Robinson Jr. surprised many by being one of the better fantasy values at running back last season. Despite being an afterthought in drafts, he finished inside the top 24 RBs, averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game.
- Improved Efficiency: Robinson showed marked improvement in his efficiency, averaging 5.1 yards per touch and leading all RBs in yards per reception (10.2). His increased target share and efficiency in the passing game contributed significantly to his fantasy success.
- 2024 Outlook: Robinson’s role as a lead runner seems more secure, but there are concerns about his workload and target share with the arrival of Austin Ekeler. While Robinson may handle more carries, Ekeler’s presence could reduce his receiving opportunities.
- ADP Value: Robinson is currently being drafted as the RB32, 94th overall. This is a reasonable ADP for a player with his role, though I have him ranked slightly lower at RB34. He should provide consistent RB3 value with touchdown upside.
- Challenges: The addition of Jayden Daniels at quarterback could limit Robinson’s touchdown potential, as mobile QBs often vulture rushing scores. While Robinson’s efficiency may remain high, his overall fantasy upside could be capped.
- Final Verdict: Robinson is a solid value at his current ADP, but the presence of Ekeler and Daniels may limit his ceiling. He’s a safe pick for RB3 production but lacks the upside to significantly outperform his draft position.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Brian Robinson Jr.
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
70) Evan Engram, TE | Jacksonville Jaguars
71) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
72) Jonathon Brooks, RB | Carolina Panthers
73) George Pickens, WR | Pittsburgh Steelers
74) Kyler Murray, QB | Arizona Cardinals
75) Brian Robinson Jr., RB | Washington Commanders
76) Tyjae Spears, RB | Tennessee Titans
77) Ladd McConkey, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
78) George Kittle, TE | San Francisco 49ers
79) Raheem Mostert, RB | Miami Dolphins
80) Ezekiel Elliott, RB | Dallas Cowboys
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
Last year, Robinson was not on my board at all. In retrospect, that looks like a bad take. Fortunately, bad results don’t necessarily mean bad process.
Robinson was relatively cheap in fantasy drafts and posted 13.2 fantasy points per game, finishing inside the top 24 running backs. He wound up being a great value. Nevertheless, I don’t regret my position.
As a rookie, Robinson was mostly a “three yards and a cloud of dust” guy. He was nowhere to be found in the passing game, commanding just a 3.5% target share. Given that the Commanders did not project to be a team frequently in a positive game script, I expected Robinson to cede considerable work to Antonio Gibson. So, how did Robinson make me a fool for not believing in him?
Robinson averaged 5.1 yards per touch (15th in the NFL). Meanwhile, a very respectable 4.5% of his carries went for at least 15 yards (24th), and he created 4.11 yards per touch (seventh).
While Robinson was undoubtedly a better runner, the real key to his better-than-expected fantasy value was a better-than-expected receiving role.
Fantasy managers may look at Robinson’s 8% target share and not think much of it, but that’s more than double his rookie season. Robinson was also anomalously efficient on his receptions, leading all RBs in yards per reception (10.2) and finishing fifth with 1.72 yards per route run.
Robinson has done enough to win me over in terms of his ability to be a lead runner for an NFL team. If he can see 15 carries a game and goal-line work, that will get the job done. Unfortunately, we have no evidence Robinson can do that.
Last season, with Gibson as his backfield mate, Robinson only averaged 11.8 carries per game. I think he can repeat his nine touchdowns, but the receiving work is almost certainly going to take a hit with Austin Ekeler in town.
Ekeler may not start. The team may give the incumbent that honor each week. However, this is also a new coaching staff that wasn’t part of the decision to draft Robinson but was part of the decision to sign Ekeler.
Regardless of who starts, Robinson will handle more carries. It’s quite ironic that after years of the Chargers trying to find the right guy to pair with Ekeler to reduce his workload, it took Ekeler joining a team with the right guy for it to actually happen.
Ekeler should settle in nicely to his satellite back-plus role — the same role he played when he was sharing a backfield with Melvin Gordon III. That leaves Robinson in the same role he was in last year, except with a lower target share and reduced efficiency through the air.
Is Robinson a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
I am torn on Robinson. On the one hand, his RB30 ADP is incredibly reasonable. I have him slightly lower at RB34, but that’s not a huge difference when we’re talking fantasy RB3s. Robinson should have enough games with a touchdown to at least be an RB3.
On the other hand, where’s the upside? I guess if Ekeler were to go down, Robinson’s passing game role would increase somewhat. However, it’s likely the Commanders would use someone else in that role anyway.
Additionally, the presence of Jayden Daniels, while good for Robinson’s rushing efficiency, will be a drain on his touchdown upside. Daniels is not about to take all of Robinson’s touchdowns, but even a couple could be really damaging to Robinson’s fantasy value.
