The Washington Commanders will face the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship Game. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Brian Robinson Jr.
Is Brian Robinson Jr. Playing vs. the Eagles?
Robinson was not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Commanders’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Brian Robinson Jr. in the NFC Conference Championship Game?
Last week was wonderful for the select few who were Brian Robinson Jr. supporters this season, took their lumps, and remained loyal in Detroit. Everything was trending away from him (under 2.5 yards per carry in three of four contests and a five-game scoring drought), but Washington was able to keep up with the Lions and thus keep its commitment to the ground game for an entire 60 minutes.
I wasn’t sure that was likely to happen last week and I’m not too sure this week, either.
My concern is less with the projected game script and more with what the Commanders are telling us with their early-game play-calling. Here are their highest first-quarter dropback rates this season – let me know if you see a trend:
- Week 18 at Cowboys: 75%
- Week 16 vs. Eagles: 73.3%
- Week 17 vs. Falcons: 72.7%
- Wild Card at Buccaneers: 69.2%
- Week 1 at Buccaneers: 66.7%
- Divisional Round at Lions: 63.2%
There’s certainly a late-season thread to that list and that’s logical — Jayden Daniels has proven himself to be a game-wrecker and Washington wants the ball in his hands as often as humanly possible across four quarters
Robinson was targeted on 14.7% of his routes in 2022 before making significant strides in 2023, upping his rate to 19.7% and looking like a viable three-down threat. He, however, has given back all of those gains and then some this season (14.2%), making him a one-dimensional back who carries a low floor in games in which the Commanders are underdogs.
I love the fact that he has seen at least three red-zone touches in six of his past seven games (the lone exception was Week 18 at Dallas, a game Daniels left early). That gives him the potential to bail you out, but I’m not comfortable in betting on that profile against EPA’s best run defense.
- Wild Card at Buccaneers: 19.7 expected points and 7.8 PPR points
- Divisional Round at Lions: 16.3 expected points and 19.7 PPR points
The upset of Detroit was a run-pure instance for Robinson. If you like the Commanders in this game, I’d suggest you go overweight on Robinson and hope for a repeat performance. Sadly, that’s not the camp in which I fall, so I’m going to be underweight on Washington’s RB1 this week, even after a standout performance.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Conference Championship Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Fantasy Points Projection in the NFC Conference Championship Game
As of Sunday morning, Robinson is projected to score 18.2 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 23.9 rushing attempts for 95.6 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. It also includes 1.3 receptions for 30 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Eagles' Defense
With Jalen Hurts MIA for the second straight week, the Philadelphia Eagles held on against the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round thanks to the disruptive playmaking of their defense.
Philly generated its fourth-highest sack rate in 2024 thanks to an uncharacteristically blitz-heavy game plan. The Eagles blitzed 22% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks, their fifth-highest rate all season. It worked spectacularly, as they generated two sacks and five pressures when blitzing the Rams, along with a 46% pressure rate.
There isn't a single statistical flaw in Philadelphia's defense, which ranks top 10 in every metric that encompasses the Defense+ grades (except for sack rate, where they're 15th). That makes them favorites to win the NFC Championship Game, even with how spectacular Jayden Daniels has been as the presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) James Cook | BUF (at KC)
3) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
4) Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. BUF)
5) Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at PHI)
7) Ray Davis | BUF (at KC)
8) Ty Johnson | BUF (at KC)
9) Samaje Perine | KC (vs. BUF)
10) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. WAS)
11) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at PHI)
12) Will Shipley | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Carson Steele | KC (vs. BUF)
14) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (at KC)
15) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
Commanders at Eagles Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders won 23.5% of their games last season – the fourth-worst win percentage for a team that took part in a Conference Championship the following season.
QB: Jayden Daniels became the first player in NFL history with 15 rushes and 20 completions in a postseason game where he averaged 9.5 yards per pass.
QB: Daniels became the first player in NFL history with two touchdowns and 12 rush attempts without an interception in consecutive games.
Offense: Including the playoffs, there have been 15 instances in which a team starting a rookie QB score 34 points this season – the Commanders have accounted for seven of them.
Defense: How impactful has the offense been in Washington? They’ve now allowed over 2.5 points per drive nine times this season – they’ve won seven of those contests. It should be noted that their six worst point-per-drive defensive showings have all come on the road.
Fantasy: Brian Robinson ran for 77 yards and two scores on 15 carries against the Lions on Saturday night. In his previous four games, he ran for 110 yards and zero scores on 38 carries.
Betting: Do you think we'll see points in this game? Washington has covered each of the past four games that have gone over the total.
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: The Eagles lost two games in September and have lost one game since (at Washington, Week 16). In that loss, Philadelphia became the first team to score 21 points in the first quarter in a losing effort since the 2019 Texans (Divisional Round at Chiefs).
QB: Jalen Hurts is averaging 6.3 yards per pass in the postseason, down from 8.0 during the regular season.
Offense: Saquon Barkley has more rushing yards in touchdowns against the Rams this season (282) than any other player has for the season as a whole.
Defense: The Eagles have forced a turnover in 11 of their past 13 games (this coming on a streak of three turnover-less games in Weeks 6-8), including multiple in four of their past five games.
Fantasy: Hurts’ 44-yard TD on Sunday was the fourth longest by a QB inthe postseason, and he has now run for 29+ yards in 11 straight games (T-9th longest streak by a QB, the second longest streak of his career)
Betting: Since Week 10, overs are 2-0 when the Eagles play the Rams and 2-7 when Philadelphia plays any other team.
