With NFL free agency behind us, the fantasy football landscape now looks quite a bit different.
Brian Robinson Jr. spent last season proving he deserves to be the Washington Commanders‘ RB1 but now has some stiff competition for touches in Austin Ekeler. Where does Robinson’s dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Dynasty Outlook
After a rookie season where Robinson was your typical “three yards and a cloud of dust” inside runner, I was admittedly not very high on him for 2023. He saw a 3.5% target share as a rookie, making him entirely touchdown-dependent … or so it seemed.
As a sophomore, Robinson proved me and all the doubters wrong. He legitimately just got better at football.
Robinson averaged 5.1 yards per touch (15th in the NFL). Meanwhile, a strong 4.5% of his carries went for at least 15 yards (24th), and he created 4.11 yards per touch (seventh).
Robinson averaged 13.2 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB22. That may not be exciting, but given his cost and perception, it was a massively positive return on investment. He certainly gave fantasy managers more than they expected after his rookie season.
The main point of excitement surrounding Robinson was his increased role as a receiver. His 8.0% target share was only 32nd in the league, but Robinson was incredibly efficient through the air. He led all RBs in yards per reception (10.2) and ranked fifth with 1.72 yards per route run.
Of course, the counter to this would be that Robinson benefited from multiple long receptions that were somewhat flukey. He was still being pulled on most passing downs in favor of Antonio Gibson.
MORE: FREE Fantasy Football Dynasty Trade Analyzer
The optimistic side of the coin was hoping Robinson could maintain a respectable receiving role. Unfortunately, we can completely close the door on that happening anytime soon, probably ever.
Even a receiving role where he catches two to three balls a game would be enough to stabilize Robinson’s floor and make him not entirely dependent on touchdowns to produce RB2 numbers. However, with the Commanders signing Ekeler, we know who the passing-down back is going to be — and it’s not Robinson.
Robinson’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Robinson land in the dynasty RB landscape as we look ahead to the next stage of the 2024 offseason? Here are our latest consensus RB rankings, examining where Robinson sits in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Christian McCaffrey | SF
2) Bijan Robinson | ATL
3) Kyren Williams | LAR
4) Saquon Barkley | PHI
5) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
6) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
7) Breece Hall | NYJ
8) Rachaad White | TB
9) De’Von Achane | MIA
10) Alvin Kamara | NO
11) Josh Jacobs | GB
12) Derrick Henry | BAL
13) Nick Chubb | CLE
14) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
15) Tony Pollard | TEN
16) Joe Mixon | HOU
17) James Cook | BUF
18) Isiah Pacheco | KC
19) D’Andre Swift | CHI
20) Austin Ekeler | WAS
21) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
22) Javonte Williams | DEN
23) Najee Harris | PIT
24) David Montgomery | DET
25) James Conner | ARI
Should You Trade Robinson in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Robinson? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!
Robinson is a tricky one. He’s only entering his third year in the league, but having spent five years in college, he’s already 25 years old. Sadly, he doesn’t profile as the type of running back who is going to remain valuable for an extended period.
With Ekeler in Washington for the next two years, not only is Robinson’s receiving upside gone, but he’s going to lose more carries to Ekeler than he did to the likes of Gibson (who is now in New England) or J.D. McKissic.
Last season, Ekeler’s efficiency as a runner cratered. But as we’ve seen in the past, receiving ability tends to age far better than rushing ability. For years, Ekeler was forced to handle more of the “dirty” work than the Chargers wanted him to. That was due to the team never being able to find a viable power back.
The Commanders have an ideal 1-2 punch in Robinson and Ekeler. That’s great for the team … not so much for fantasy.
Even without an overly threatening backfield mate last season, Robinson only carried the ball 11.8 times per game. While his nine touchdowns look repeatable, it’s hard to envision his receiving work holding. Even if his rushing efficiency increases, that’s not going to move the needle. We’re looking at a guy who will struggle to do better than 12-13 fantasy points per game.
With two years left on his rookie deal, Robinson will remain in Washington for the time being. The concern is that the Commanders just fired Ron Rivera, and the organization is very much in flux. Washington doesn’t have any semblance of defense, and their answer at quarterback is not currently on the team.
Last season, the Commanders’ offense benefited greatly from playing fast and being the most pass-heavy attack in the NFL. Running more may appear like it’s good for Robinson, but if the offense doesn’t score as much, that will lower his upside. Plus, he is not going to benefit as much with Ekeler involved.
In my pre-free agency version of this outlook, I wrote: “It’s also entirely possible the team signs or drafts a running back to push ahead of Robinson. Gibson is set to hit free agency, and I’d be surprised if he returns. The new regime may want the running back of its choosing.”
At 29 years old, Ekeler isn’t exactly the new regime’s long-term answer, but he’s clearly the running back they chose.
Robinson is way more talented than I initially gave him credit for, but he’s not this game-breaking talent who is going to command a starting job. I tentatively expect him to handle more carries than Ekeler, but even that’s not a guarantee. There’s easily a world where he fades into the wrong side of a committee.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
Before free agency, I advised fantasy managers with Robinson to consider cashing out. If you were unable to do so, it’s going to be much more difficult now. Robinson’s value has undoubtedly dipped a bit over the past month.
At this point, the best course of action is likely to hold. Hopefully, Robinson will hold onto a larger share of the backfield than expected. If the rookie QB the team inevitably drafts turns out to be a hit, he could also score more touchdowns than expected. Essentially, fantasy managers need to roll the dice on Robinson again exceeding expectations.
Read More 2024 Dynasty Profiles
Using the table below, browse our 2024 dynasty profiles for more than 170 players so you can dominate your dynasty drafts!
You can sort by player, team, or position. For mobile users, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.