Washington Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. played better than anyone could have expected last season, providing fantasy football managers with great value. With the addition of Austin Ekeler to the team, will Robinson fade into the background? Or does Ekeler’s presence only make Robinson a value in Best Ball drafts once again?
Brian Robinson Jr.’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Last year, I had no interest in Robinson. In retrospect, that looks like a bad take. After all, Robinson was relatively cheap in fantasy drafts and posted 13.2 fantasy points per game, finishing inside the top 24 running backs. That’s great value. However, I don’t regret the position.
Robinson was your typical “three yards and a cloud of dust” inside runner as a rookie. He had no involvement whatsoever in the passing game, commanding just a 3.5% target share. Given that the Commanders did not project to be a team frequently in a positive game script, I expected Robinson to cede considerable work to Antonio Gibson. So, how did Robinson prove me wrong?
Robinson averaged 5.1 yards per touch (15th in the NFL). Meanwhile, a strong 4.5% of his carries went for at least 15 yards (24th), and he created 4.11 yards per touch (seventh).
#Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. has averaged 13.6 yards after the catch this season.
This is the best among 36 qualified #NFL RBs, per @IE_NFL. 🔥#HTTC
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 14, 2023
Where Robinson made the most surprising improvement, though, was as a receiver. His 8.0% target share is nothing special, but it was more than double his rookie year. Most importantly, it was enough. His leading all RBs in yards per reception (10.2) and sitting fifth with 1.72 yards per route run seems more random than anything else, but there’s no denying his progression in that area.
I’ve seen enough from Robinson to believe he can be a lead back. He’s not a true three-down back, but few running backs are. Fantasy managers will be fine if Robinson handles 15 carries a game and gets goal-line carries. The problem is, I don’t see that happening.
Last season, with Gibson as his backfield mate, Robinson only averaged 11.8 carries per game. I do think he can repeat his nine touchdowns, but the receiving work is almost certainly going to take a hit with Ekeler in town.
I don’t know if Ekeler will start over Robinson. It feels like the Commanders will give the incumbent a ceremonial start each week, but this is also a new coaching staff that wasn’t part of the decision to draft Robinson but was part of the decision to sign Ekeler.
Regardless of who starts, Robinson is likely going to out-carry Ekeler each week. Ever since Melvin Gordon III left the Chargers, they had been looking for a power back to pair with Ekeler to enable them not to give him so many touches. Rather than bring that back to L.A., Ekeler went to a place with the perfect complement to what he does well.
With Ekeler in that satellite back-plus role, he’s going to dominate passing game work while taking a few carries away from Robinson each game. Essentially, Robinson should be the same player he was last year, except with a lower target share and reduced efficiency through the air.
Should You Draft Robinson in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
It would be inadvisable to draft Robinson on the presumption he can repeat last season’s production. Fortunately, fantasy managers don’t have to.
Robinson is going just outside the top 30 running backs. There is a justifiable discount based on the Ekeler signing. Even so, I struggle to see to see much upside in Robinson.
Especially in Best Ball, fantasy managers want players who have the potential for big weeks. How exactly is Robinson going to do that? He would likely need to score multiple touchdowns. And even then, 80 total yards and two touchdowns are only 20 fantasy points. If he’s not catching passes, that’s roughly his weekly ceiling and one which I wouldn’t expect him to reach more than a couple of times at best.
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Plus, Robinson will be on an offense that will likely feature a rookie quarterback. How many offensive touchdowns can really project this team to score? They scored 38 total last season and would do well to merely repeat that.
Ultimately, while Robinson’s price is reasonable, he lacks the upside to be a difference-maker. I would only be interested in him if he was my RB4 and fell significantly below his ADP.