Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson overcame a preseason gunshot wound to become his team’s lead RB. Can he build on a solid rookie campaign, or will Antonio Gibson cap his upside? What is Robinson’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Brian Robinson’s Fantasy Outlook
Robinson was able to make an impressively quick recovery from getting shot to return to football in Week 5. In his NFL debut, he barely played as the Commanders eased him into action. However, the very next week, he immediately became the Commanders’ lead back.
On the season, Robinson only saw a 42% snap share, but he averaged 17.1 carries per game. Over the second half of the season, more specifically from Weeks 10-17, Robinson had four games with 20+ carries. For a guy who was barely even drafted, his 9.4 PPR fantasy points per game and RB36 finish were certainly good enough for him to be considered a value relative to his cost.
With all that said, fantasy managers have no real reason to be excited about Robinson’s 2023 prospects. For starters, he is a pure two-down grinder. There is virtually no hope for any receiving work.
Robinson saw just a 3.5% target share last season. Even with J.D. McKissic gone, the Commanders are finally going to use Gibson, a former college receiver, in the role he always should’ve played — the passing-down back.
That leaves Robinson to score all of his fantasy points from rushing yards and touchdowns. Historically, that’s not a recipe for fantasy success. It’s even less so on a team that projects to be one of the weaker offenses in the league.
If there is some good news for Robinson, it’s that the Commanders want to run the ball. Last season, they had a 52% neutral-game-script-run rate, the third-highest in the league. With sophomore quarterback Sam Howell under center (or Jacoby Brissett), it’s difficult to see the Commanders wanting to throw the ball much.
Robinson should have a safe volume projection of at least 15 carries a game. Unfortunately, Robinson wasn’t particularly efficient last season. He averaged just 3.9 yards per carry and just 2.05 yards created per touch, 47th in the league.
The yards created per touch relative to his 28% evaded tackles per touch rate, which was 18th in the league, is even more concerning. That means Robinson was making defenders miss but wasn’t able to do anything with it. Of course, this shouldn’t be surprising for a guy who is completely devoid of any burst or agility.
Robinson can run in a straight line, and that’s really it. He should dominate goal-line work, but how valuable will that be on an offense that scored a mere 33 touchdowns last season?
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Robinson at His ADP?
My projections have Robinson carrying the ball 258 times for 1,031 yards and 6.5 touchdowns while adding 12 receptions for 85 yards through the air. That comes out to 9.7 ppg and an RB37 finish, not much different than what he did as a rookie.
Robinson’s ADP is right in line with where he finished last season, as well as my projection for this season. He’s being drafted as the RB34, No. 97 overall, three spots behind Gibson at the running back position.
I have to agree with the notion that Gibson should be taken ahead of Robinson. While there’s no guarantee Gibson outscores Robinson, there is plausible upside for Gibson that Robinson simply does not possess.
If Robinson gets hurt, Gibson will likely take on a larger role on the ground. If Gibson gets hurt, someone else will step into the passing-down role — it won’t be Robinson. His only upside lies in increased rushing efficiency or more touchdowns.
When targeting a middle-round running back, Robinson is the exact type of guy you should avoid. You want running backs that are either on good offenses or that catch passes, preferably both. Robinson is neither.
I have Robinson ranked at RB37. Of course, I will take any player if the value is there. But for Robinson, the only way I’m drafting him is if he’s much cheaper than he should be.