The Washington Commanders will face the Dallas Cowboys in Week 12. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Brian Robinson Jr.
Is Brian Robinson Jr. Playing in Week 12?
Robinson is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Commanders’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Brian Robinson Jr. in Week 12?
Brian Robinson Jr. has run for seven touchdowns on 117 carries this season (career prior: seven rushing scores on 383 attempts), capitalizing on the improved offensive environment despite a snap share that has reached 65% just once this season.
With multiple red-zone touches in every one of his games this season, the opportunity to sustain this scoring rate is there. Robinson’s ypc after contact is up 21.8% this season from last, something that I credit to Daniels’ presence and defenses unable to swarm.
Robinson’s regression in the passing game isn’t ideal (nor unexpected with the acquisition of Ekeler in the offseason), but with north of 15 carries in five of his past six healthy games to complement his scoring equity, there’s no reason to run away from this profile.
The ceiling may be capped, but so is the floor. So long as his hamstring holds up, Robinson is someone fantasy managers can count on.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 12
As of early Sunday morning, Robinson is projected to score 15.5 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 20.4 rushing attempts for 81.6 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. It also includes 1.1 receptions for 25.6 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Buccaneers' Defense
Quietly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has improved since returning from their bye in Week 12. A soft schedule helped, but the Bucs rank third in EPA per play, first in third-down defense, and fourth in red-zone defense over that span.
The pass-defense numbers ended up ugly for the season, but that may not be a true reflection of how the Buccaneers are currently playing. That the surge came with a litany of injuries in the secondary makes it even more impressive and offsets some of the questions about the closing schedule.
A Wild Card matchup against the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year in Jayden Daniels will be a bigger test. However, the December and January version of the Bucs has a better chance to compete than if this matchup had taken place in the middle of the season.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 12. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. GB)
2) Bucky Irving | TB (vs. WAS)
3) Derrick Henry | BAL (vs. PIT)
4) Kyren Williams | LAR (vs. MIN)
5) Josh Jacobs | GB (at PHI)
6) Joe Mixon | HOU (vs. LAC)
7) Aaron Jones | MIN (at LAR)
8) J.K. Dobbins | LAC (at HOU)
9) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at TB)
10) Jaylen Warren | PIT (at BAL)
11) Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN (at BUF)
12) Najee Harris | PIT (at BAL)
13) Cam Akers | MIN (at LAR)
14) Justice Hill | BAL (vs. PIT)
15) Javonte Williams | DEN (at BUF)
16) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at TB)
17) Gus Edwards | LAC (at HOU)
18) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. GB)
19) Emanuel Wilson | GB (at PHI)
20) Rachaad White | TB (vs. WAS)
21) James Cook | BUF (vs. DEN)
22) Ray Davis | BUF (vs. DEN)
23) Audric Estimé | DEN (at BUF)
24) Ty Johnson | BUF (vs. DEN)
25) Kimani Vidal | LAC (at HOU)
26) Dameon Pierce | HOU (vs. LAC)
27) Dare Ogunbowale | HOU (vs. LAC)
28) Cordarrelle Patterson | PIT (at BAL)
29) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at TB)
30) Chris Brooks | GB (at PHI)
31) Will Shipley | PHI (vs. GB)
32) Sean Tucker | TB (vs. WAS)
33) Hassan Haskins | LAC (at HOU)
34) Ronnie Rivers | LAR (vs. MIN)
35) Keaton Mitchell | BAL (vs. PIT)
36) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at TB)
37) C.J. Ham | MIN (at LAR)
38) Michael Burton | DEN (at BUF)
39) Rasheen Ali | BAL (vs. PIT)
40) Patrick Ricard | BAL (vs. PIT)
41) Ty Chandler | MIN (at LAR)
42) Tyrion Davis-Price | PHI (vs. GB)
43) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (vs. DEN)
44) Tyler Badie | DEN (at BUF)
45) Ellis Merriweather | GB (at PHI)
46) Michael Wiley | WAS (at TB)
47) Cody Schrader | LAR (vs. MIN)
48) Blake Watson | DEN (at BUF)
49) J.J. Taylor | HOU (vs. LAC)
50) Aaron Shampklin | PIT (at BAL)
51) Jaret Patterson | LAC (at HOU)
52) Khari Blasingame | CHI ()
53) Jonathan Ward | PIT (at BAL)
54) Frank Gore Jr. | BUF (vs. DEN)
Commanders at Buccaneers Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: In Year 1 of the Jayden Daniels era, the Commanders matched their win total from the two seasons prior (12) and posted their best point differential since the Super Bowl champion 1991 team.
QB: Daniels has completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during the current five-game win streak, a drastic improvement from his 49.1% rate over the previous five games.
Offense: The Commanders have converted eight of their last nine fourth-down attempts (four for four over the past two weeks).
Defense: Washington has held the opposition out of the end zone on at least half of their red zone drives in four of their past five games (one TD on six such drives on Sunday against Dallas).
Fantasy: Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes this season, more than his best two seasons combined prior.
Betting: The Commanders have failed to cover three straight road games after opening the season 3-1-1 ATS on the road.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: The Bucs haven’t lost a game in regulation by more than three points since October.
QB: In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season.
Offense: In Weeks 9-14, the Bucs picked up just 38.3% of their third downs. In the four weeks to close the regular season, that rate spiked to 61.4%.
Defense: Just three times through 15 weeks did Tampa Bay fail to force a turnover – they enter the postseason having failed to do so in each of their past three.
Fantasy: Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season.
Betting: Tampa Bay went 5-4 ATS at home this season after going 5-11-1 over the previous two seasons in front of their home fans.
