The 2023 fantasy football season is back and better than ever as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into New York Jets running back Breece Hall’s 2023 fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value in fantasy drafts. Will Hall be held back by his season-ending knee injury in 2023, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Breece Hall’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Although his rookie season was cut short, the impact Hall had was massive. And while some concerns persist entering the 2023 fantasy football season, all signs have been positive for Hall coming into Year 2.
Appearing in seven games, Hall rushed 80 times for 463 yards and caught 19 of 32 targets for an additional 218 yards, scoring a total of five touchdowns. But we need more context as Hall was on the verge of doing something special.
The rookie out of Iowa State was the RB6 in half-PPR points per game at 15.4, averaging 5.8 yards per carry as a rusher while finishing fourth in yards after contact per attempt at 4.13.
Additionally, Hall was fourth in receiving yards with an absurd 34.4% target per route run rate and was seventh in points per opportunity, first in juke rate and yards per touch, second in breakaway run rate, and third in yards created per touch. Hall did all of this while facing the fourth-highest stacked box rate and the sixth-highest average number of defenders in the box.
What makes it slightly more ridiculous is the fact we only got to see Hall as the Jets’ RB1 for three weeks. Between Weeks 1-3, Hall averaged seven rushing attempts per game but saw 17, 18, and 20 rush totals, respectively, over the next three games.
Breece Hall Has Some Concerns in His Profile Entering 2023
Teams knew what the Jets were trying to do offensively, given their ineptitude at quarterback, and still couldn’t stop Hall. Unfortunately, in Week 7, Hall suffered a torn ACL. It could have been a monster day for Hall, who already had 72 yards and a touchdown on four carries against the Broncos.
As we’ve seen in years past with guys like Saquon Barkley and J.K. Dobbins, there will be some trepidation by the fantasy football committee on whether or not they should draft Hall and his first-year post-ACL tear.
We can’t treat every case the same way, though. Everything being reported has Hall ahead of schedule, and he fits the mold of athletes above the 90th percentile in athleticism that has come back quicker simply due to the way they’re built. There have been zero setbacks for Hall. Not only has he been jogging, but he’s been clocked at a ridiculous 22 mph and has been planting and cutting with seemingly no hesitation.
I’m not saying he’ll be 100% by the start of the season, but Weeks 4-5 are a realistic timeline. Even if we only saw Hall at 90% of what we saw last year, that’s still a low-end RB1 with mid-RB1 upside on an offense now led by Aaron Rodgers and not Zach Wilson, Mike White, or Joe Flacco.
Hall will seed some opportunities to Michael Carter and Israel Abanikanda but nothing that will significantly impact his fantasy value. Once given the green light, from that point on, it’s wheels up for the Jets.
It’s still early, so there will be several iterations between now and the start of the season. Still, my current projections have Hall with approximately 200 rushing attempts for about 1,000 yards with seven touchdowns and catching roughly 40-45 of his 60 targets for 400-420 yards and three additional scores. I’m treating Hall as a low-end RB1 for fantasy football in 2023.
Should You Draft Breece Hall This Year?
In fantasy football leagues, it’s common for players who are returning from ACL tears to be drafted at a discount in their first year. This is because managers want to avoid picking an early player who may perform poorly. However, the medical community is divided on the impact of Year 2 after ACL injuries, so this approach may not always be applicable.
Hall may not be a budget-friendly choice, but there’s some good value at his current ADP. In high-stakes formats, Hall’s ADP is around 33 (RB13). But there are a wide range of opinions on Hall’s draft position, with some being very optimistic and selecting him as early as pick 21. At the same time, others wait until the last possible moment at pick 47.
The ADP discrepancy between Hall and Broncos RB Javonte Williams is interesting and worth pointing out. Williams also tore his ACL last year, but he’s going a few rounds later due to the offseason narratives that he might not be ready at all in 2023, which were never accurate. He’ll play, but it does sound like he’s behind Hall in his recovery.
In a perfect world, Hall slides a little bit further, but there’s too much optimism about his recovery to expect a discount on draft day, which is fair. Everything he showed us on the field in the NFL and at Iowa State has been electric.
I would have no complaints with a roster build where I started with two WRs and then grabbed Hall as my first RB. For some baked-in protection, alternate a running back and a receiver in the first two rounds, and then come back with Hall as likely the best RB2 in your entire league. This gives you a bit of cushion at the beginning of the season as Hall gets up to speed. From then on, you’re RB room likely has an advantage over everyone else.