There’s no debate over the best running back in fantasy football. That’s Christian McCaffrey. But who comes next? One of the names in contention is Breece Hall.
On the heels of an RB1 finish where he lit the world on fire down the stretch, is the New York Jets RB poised to challenge CMC for overall RB1 status in 2024?
Should You Select Breece Hall at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 4th Overall (RB2)
- RB1 Potential: Breece Hall emerged as an elite fantasy running back down the stretch in 2023, finishing as the overall RB6 despite battling through an ACL recovery and a tumultuous season for the Jets. His strong finish, where he averaged 25.8 fantasy points per game over the final five weeks, highlighted his immense upside.
- 2024 Outlook: Hall enters 2024 fully recovered from his injury and potentially with a full season of Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Even behind a less-than-stellar offensive line, Hall showed he can produce elite numbers on his own. With the Jets’ offense expected to be much improved, Hall is in prime position to challenge Christian McCaffrey for the overall RB1 spot.
- ADP Comparison: Hall is currently being drafted as the RB2, 4th overall. He’s in contention with Bijan Robinson for the RB2 spot behind McCaffrey, and there’s no wrong choice between the two. Hall’s ADP reflects his potential to be a top-tier running back in 2024.
- Final Verdict: Hall is a strong candidate for a top-five pick in fantasy drafts. Whether you choose him over a wide receiver or Robinson depends on your draft strategy and how you want to construct your team. Hall’s upside makes him a viable selection as high as No. 2 overall.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Breece Hall
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
1) CeeDee Lamb, WR | Dallas Cowboys
2) Christian McCaffrey, RB | San Francisco 49ers
3) Tyreek Hill, WR | Miami Dolphins
4) Bijan Robinson, RB | Atlanta Falcons
5) Breece Hall, RB | New York Jets
6) Ja’Marr Chase, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
7) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Detroit Lions
8) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
9) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
10) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Detroit Lions
Hall’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Remember back in 2022 when Hall played behind Michael Carter for about a month? That was fun. Then, just as Hall was emerging into an elite fantasy RB1, he tore his ACL.
That injury noticeably slowed Hall to start the 2023 season. Still recovering from the injury, Hall wasn’t ready for a full workload. Fortunately, he was going to have his fantasy value bolstered by a massive upgrade at quarterback … until Aaron Rodgers went down four plays into the season.
Essentially, everything went wrong for Hall and the Jets last season. Yet, he still averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB6.
Hall’s final numbers don’t tell the whole story, though. Through 13 weeks, Hall was only at 13.5 fantasy points per game. I can see you sitting there, mathing this out in your head. Wait … Hall was able to raise his average 3.6 points per game in a span of just five weeks? What the …?
#Jets RB Breece Hall dashes to the end zone to extend the lead over the #Commanders 💨#TakeFlight
pic.twitter.com/E7NPP7vN8o— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 24, 2023
Watching Hall in November and December compared to the guy we saw in September and October is like two different players. He regained confidence in his knee. That slight hiccup in his gait from favoring his knee was gone. Hall looked like Hall. He played like him, too.
From Week 14 onward, including Week 18, Hall averaged 25.8 fantasy points per game. He carried the ball a whopping 37 times in the final game of the season (please never do this again, Jets. Thanks!).
Even with a knee that was nowhere near 100%, Hall averaged 3.9 yards created per touch and posted a 25.8% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate. In a bad offense running behind a weak offensive line, Hall proved capable of producing on his own. Now, he should get a full season with Rodgers.
Is Hall a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Once McCaffrey is off the board, Hall should be considered. Depending on where you look, he either has an RB2 or RB3 ADP of No. 4-8 overall and is absolutely worth being selected in the top half of the first round.
There are two questions fantasy managers need to answer when deciding who to draft this early. The first question is whether they want Hall or Bijan Robinson. I am super high on both players this season (not exactly a hot take), and I don’t think there’s a wrong answer. I slightly lean toward Robinson, though, making Hall my overall RB3, right in line with consensus.
The second and more important question is whether to draft Hall or a wide receiver. I can’t answer that for anyone. Hall isn’t objectively better or worse than the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, or Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Whether you go with Hall or a wide receiver comes down to the manner in which you are looking to construct your team. Conducting mock drafts and seeing how your roster looks when you go RB early compared to WR early will help guide you. Just know that you can consider Hall as high as No. 2 overall.