At the start of the season, Breece Hall was a consensus top-three overall pick in fantasy football drafts. The explosive New York Jets running back seemed primed for an All-Pro level season entering Year 3. Rookie fourth-rounder Braelon Allen felt like more of an upside dart throw in dynasty leagues at best.
Yet, through the first month of the season, Allen has decisively outperformed Hall. With the rookie gradually earning a larger share of snaps, is Hall still the clear top option for fantasy managers entering Week 5?
Should You Start Breece Hall or Braelon Allen in Week 5?
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s consensus rankings still have Hall as the clear Jets running back to start. His projected 14.1 PPR points include 52 rushing yards and three receptions for 28 yards. Allen, meanwhile, is projected for 9.5 points.
Hall’s managers likely feel burned by his shockingly inefficient start, capped by his ugly 10-rush, four-yard rushing performance in the Week 4 loss to the Denver Broncos.
Nevertheless, Hall’s history, coupled with his still-clear RB1 usage rate, should warrant patience from his managers. For that reason, he remains the clear option to play over Allen.
Hall and Allen’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Hall ranks 45th out of 49 qualifying running backs with 3.1 yards per carry, while Allen ranks 15th with 4.8 yards per rush. Last week, Allen played a season-high 24 snaps, producing 46 yards on nine touches.
That has the fantasy community speculating about a potential timeshare, but the evidence just doesn’t support that despite Hall’s underwhelming start.
Hall has played exactly 71.4% of the offensive snaps in each of the last three games after playing 83.7% in the season opener. For the season, he’s played 73.9% of the snaps, the sixth-highest participation rate of any running back.
Moreover, Hall remains the clear goal-line option, having taken all five of the team’s carries from inside the 10-yard line this season. When asked about a potential timeshare earlier this week, Jets coach Robert Saleh seemed to squash the notion.
#Jets HC Robert Saleh was asked about whether they’d integrate Braelon Allen more into the offense & whether the #Broncos game was an outlier for Breece Hall:
‘Breece was batting 1.000 in goal-line situations this year. He’s been doing great in short yardage situations also.’… pic.twitter.com/TZN8SvQWD9
— Paul Andrew Esden Jr (@BoyGreen25) October 2, 2024
It’s important to remember Hall’s track record. From 2022-23, he averaged 4.8 yards per rush, 12th among running backs. That included 3.6 yards after contact per carry, the best of any RB in that span.
Hall’s production will also improve if the environment around him simply becomes a little less dysfunctional. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Hall’s expected yards per carry is 3.2, which ranks last in the NFL. Conversely, Allen’s expected ypc is 4.5, which ranks 14th in the league.
This week, the Jets face tough sledding against the Minnesota Vikings in London. Minnesota has allowed the third-fewest fantasy ppg to running backs (12.1), though some of that is due to game script.
The Vikings have led for all but three minutes and 26 seconds this season and have consequently seen the most dropbacks in the league entering Week 5 (200).
Hall managers may have to deal with at least one more frustrating week given those circumstances. Still, his volume and monopoly of the goal-line work makes him a tough player to bench as well as an intriguing buy-low candidate for other league members.
