Looking at the 2020 NFL QBs draft class | Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Taken as the third QB in the 2020 QB draft class after Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, Herbert’s raw statistics are impressive. He has put a lot of good work on tape, including several pinpoint deep passes and an ability to make good decisions and sharp throws on the run. There are no red flags to report right now, just some typical rookie blunders (and not that many of those).
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It’s important to note that the Chargers’ late-game collapses have not been Herbert’s fault. In fourth quarters, Herbert is 38-of-53 for 411 yards, two TDs, and one interception with an impressive 71.1% completion rate and 98.9 efficiency rating against tough opponents like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, and Kansas City Chiefs. Those would be solid numbers for a veteran. It’s the Chargers defense that gets gouged for big plays and commits too many penalties late in games.
The Chargers turned out to be an ideal landing spot for Herbert. Keenan Allen leads a receiving corps that’s better than the ones most rookies are saddled with, head coach Anthony Lynn is a clever play designer and game planner, and the offensive line isn’t horrendous. The Chargers face the Raiders, Dolphins, and Jets over the next three weeks, so Herbert should have some better opportunities to turn impressive stats into victories.
2020 QB draft class | Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow was the first overall pick last year and was probably the most sought after prospect in the 2020 QB draft class. The Bengals certainly aren’t coddling Burrow. He has thrown 112 passes of 10-plus Air Yards this season, the second-highest total in the NFL behind Matt Ryan. That’s a remarkably high rate of downfield passes for a rookie, even accounting for the fact that the Bengals are often playing from behind: Most coaches scheme up lots of shorter throws to protect young quarterbacks, padding their stats with lots of three-yard passes on third-and-15.
Burrow is completing just 50% of those 10-plus yard passes: Not great, but not bad for a rookie (Lock, by contrast, completes just 32% of such passes). Burrow’s numbers would be better if he weren’t taking so many extra-deep shots. Burrow is 7-of-34 on passes of 20-plus Air Yards: The fifth-highest total of throws out of all NFL QBs, but the second-lowest completion rate (to poor Lock).
Burrow is just 1-of-15 targeting A.J. Green deep: The Bengals would be better off just not trying to make that connection happen anymore. Rookie Tee Higgins (4-of-12 deep, with one drop) is more likely to grow into a role as Burrow’s home run threat. Burrow lacks a bazooka arm, so he will need experience to master the touch and timing on his deeper throws.
It’s always an encouraging sign when a rookie quarterback is handling what appears to be a veteran’s playbook and keeping his team in most games, no matter what the final results. Burrow needs a real offensive line and more weapons who aren’t holdovers from the mid-2010s. But even with his current supporting cast, he looks like a franchise quarterback in the making.
2020 QB draft class | Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Let’s be honest: Tua Tagovailoa did almost nothing noteworthy in his NFL debut and crediting him with some mystical “poise” because the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17 on turnovers and punt return touchdowns would just be silly.
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We did learn something about Tua Tagovailoa’s supporting cast on Sunday, however. The Dolphins defense is developing into a legit playoff-caliber unit: They rank 11th in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and third in the NFL in DVOA pass defense. That means Tua should continue benefiting from short drives after turnovers.
The offensive line wasn’t spectacular, but it didn’t get completely clobbered by Aaron Donald and company (A healthy lead and a game plan full of quick throws and rollouts helped). The Dolphins proved that Tua is in a pretty good situation. That’s an important variable when determining if someone will develop into a franchise quarterback.
Tua Tagovailoa faces the Cardinals, Chargers, Broncos, and New York Jets over the next four weeks, which means a) the Dolphins schedule gets easier as he gains experience, and b) he’ll be facing three of the other quarterbacks we just discussed. Murray and Herbert will probably outclass him. But we would hesitate before taking any action on Sam Darnold or Lock.