At moments last season, San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk didn’t just look like the team’s WR1, he looked like a fantasy football WR1. He then underwhelmed when the lights were brightest during the playoffs and dealt with trade rumors this offseason. What can we expect from Aiyuk in his fifth professional season in terms of counting numbers?
Should You Select Brandon Aiyuk at His Current ADP?
ADP: 33rd Overall (WR16)
With just one DNP over the past three seasons, the availability grades out as a strength, something you very much want to have in any player you’re taking in the first three rounds. Aiyuk is being drafted as a solid WR2 in the middle of the third round, and I think that’s about right.
That lands him in the Michael Pittman Jr., Stefon Diggs, and Mike Evans tier at the position. I like him sin the middle of that range (behind Pittman but ahead of Diggs and Evans), making him a nice situational buy.
I find myself often going WR-RB-WR to open drafts, which means picking from this class to fill my WR2 roster slot. That said, if I liked the value of a pair of receivers with my first two picks, I’m opting for a bell-cow back in the Derrick Henry range over Aiyuk.
With the potential for extreme regression, Aiyuk isn’t highlighted on my cheat sheet as a must-target player at his current cost, but that’s not to say that I’m actively avoiding San Francisco’s WR1 either.
Aiyuk’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Aiyuk has made strides in consecutive seasons, and there is plenty to like in his profile. We will see where the Deebo Samuel situation lands, but even if he remains on the team, there’s no denying how impressive Aiyuk’s 2023 campaign was.
In his fourth season, Aiyuk proved himself to be a true game-wrecker as the go-to option in the most efficient offense in the league. His yards per catch increased by 37.7% from 2023, and he was consistently making big plays (30+ yard grabs in seven games during the regular season), a common trait among the very best in the game.
Brandon Aiyuk in Week 11: 5 catches for 156 yards including a 76-yard TD 👏@THE2ERA | @49ers pic.twitter.com/kJon4fEhCR
— NFL (@NFL) November 21, 2023
That said, some sustainability red flags make a repeat season, let alone continued growth, difficult to project. Aiyuk’s 1,342 receiving yards last season were good for seventh most in the league. But among those seven, he went about his business in a very different way.
Percentage of YAC among the top seven in receiving yards:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 44.1%
- Puka Nacua: 43.1%
- DJ Moore: 39.5%
- CeeDee Lamb: 38.9%
- Tyreek Hill: 36.2%
- A.J. Brown: 32.5%
- Brandon Aiyuk: 28.5%
The ability to win air-yard battles is a good skill to have, but it creates a fine line in terms of projecting forward. Is there any doubt that we just saw the best season of Brock Purdy’s career? His 9.6 yards per attempt was the best mark since Kurt Warner of the Greatest Show on Turf Rams (2000). No matter how good you think Purdy is, expecting efficiency like that isn’t logical.
What if that falls back to 8.0 (the rate of MVP Lamar Jackson)? What if it sinks to 7.0? That may seem drastic, but it’s what Patrick Mahomes delivered in 2023.
The math goes both ways. With a decline in efficiency, Aiyuk’s volume could rise due to longer drives, but if we’re penciling in significant regression for his signal-caller, he’s going to fall victim to at least some of that.
In 2023, Aiyuk had one double-digit target game and saw no more than six targets on eight occasions. With a target-earning tight end and running back, not to mention at least one receiver who will be involved (Samuel is the obvious name here, but the team did invest first-round draft capital in Ricky Pearsall and figure to get him involved one way or another), that is bound to happen somewhat frequently.
Aiyuk is a special player and will produce, but be careful not to pay for his 2023 production in your draft.