San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is entering a critical season as the franchise contemplates a quarterback change. What is Aiyuk’s fantasy football outlook for 2022 fantasy managers, and what’s his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Brandon Aiyuk’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Finishing 2021 as the WR34 in standard formats, Aiyuk had a few flashes of brilliance in his second season filled with frustration. Aiyuk fought off being “benched” early in the season to become a regular contributor by the middle of the year.
There were certainly several positive developments for Aiyuk last season that bode well for his fantasy managers in 2022. First, he stayed healthy. Aiyuk played in every game after missing four contests the previous year with a hamstring injury.
His increased availability and whatever he learned from his benching paid off. By the middle of the season, Aiyuk went from sporadic targets to a consistent flow of 6+ opportunities a game. From Week 7 until the end of the season, Aiyuk was targeted six times or more in eight of 11 games.
He rewarded the 49ers with a major increase in efficiency. Aiyuk increased his yards per target from 7.8 to 9.8 and his catch rate from 62.5% to 66.7%. Though his yards per game dropped, those numbers are skewed by his first six games, where he caught just nine passes for 96 yards. Over the last 11 games, Aiyuk averaged 66 yards per contest, a slight increase from his rookie campaign.
Who will be the 49ers’ starting QB?
There are multiple factors that play into what Aiyuk will be capable of in 2022. The obvious one is that Aiyuk may be playing with quarterback Trey Lance instead of Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo has been on the trade block all offseason as the franchise looks to make a major change. Lance was erratic in his first few games played but connected with Aiyuk in Week 16 for four receptions for 94 yards.
It’s likely safe to assume Lance earns the starting job considering their massive investment of draft capital to get him. Aiyuk was already a bit boom or bust as a flex option but will be especially so moving forward. Remember, he’s competing with stars in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle in a scheme that filters targets their direction.
Aiyuk ranked 23rd in red-zone points despite only 10 targets. Only Samuel and Elijah Moore were more productive with their touches among receivers. Aiyuk caught five of his 10 targets for 39 yards and five touchdowns for 33.9 fantasy points.
There’s room for Aiyuk to grow even if Lance isn’t able to match Garoppolo’s level of play right away. It’s hard to know whether head coach Kyle Shanahan will rely on his play designs or allow Lance to make his own progressions in the red zone. However, his offense did not produce a high-volume red-zone receiver last year.
There’s certainly reason for fear of a self-imposed ceiling on Aiyuk’s production just by the Lance factor and design of Shanahan’s offense. Aiyuk will get touches, but he’s not a priority in the pecking order. Unless Lance develops some otherworldly chemistry with Aiyuk, his 2021 season looks like a good indicator of what to expect for 2022.
How the 49ers’ depth chart impacts Brandon Aiyuk’s fantasy projection for the season
The best thing that could have happened for Aiyuk’s 2022 fantasy stock would have been for San Francisco to keep Garoppolo as the starting QB and trade Samuel after his request to be dealt. Neither of those things happened, putting Aiyuk in a tough position in his quest to improve.
The target distribution heavily favors Samuel (121 targets, 24% of total passes) and Kittle (94 targets, 19% of passes). Aiyuk earned 84 targets, then the next-highest receivers in targets were fullback Kyle Juszczyk and Jauan Jennings at 38 each.
The only notable addition who could take some targets away is third-round rookie Danny Gray. The speedster was a surprise selection but has drawn positive reviews this offseason. Gray is a deep threat who could rotate in with Aiyuk on schemed deep shots.
San Francisco only ran three-receiver personnel 48% of their snaps last year (tied for fifth-least). It’s unlikely we’ll see all three receivers and Kittle on the field too often. This is a potential pitfall for Aiyuk if Gray emerges as more than just a deep decoy or occasional pot-shot threat.
Overall, it’s hard to see Aiyuk bottoming out and having a lesser season than what he produced from start to finish last year. He may not continue growing on the success he found from Week 7 on in 2021 due to factors out of control. Just be willing to accept that his WR34 finish last year is likely the same range he’ll end up in 2022.
Aiyuk’s ADP for 2022
Aiyuk’s ADP has remained largely stable in recent weeks as the WR39 off the board and around the 95th selection overall. A big part of the reason for that is that since the 49ers said Trey Lance would start and signed Deebo Samuel to an extension, things have been really quiet in terms of news for that offense. That stability has made it easy for fantasy managers to find a settled spot where they feel comfortable with Aiyuk.
The ADP for Aiyuk is very close to where he is ranked in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings. He currently sits 92nd overall as the 36th WR. He sits in a region of the position where we have other potential third pass catchers who should have a role but have limited upside.
There is nothing wrong with drafting Aiyuk at his current price, but it just isn’t exciting. Being the third target in an offense with a QB that likes to run is hardly likely to result in a high-value output. He is a perfectly fine option, but would you rather have the upside of Drake London, Robert Woods, Christian Kirk, or Allen Lazard at a similar price? All of those options feel like they have more upside without carrying that much more risk.