Facebook Pixel

    Brandon Aiyuk’s Fantasy Outlook: Low Volume Will Limit the 49ers’ Top Target

    There’s little debate as to who the best wide receiver on the San Francisco 49ers is — it’s Brandon Aiyuk. Nevertheless, this offense has a ton of weapons.

    While Aiyuk is very good, the lack of forced volume may prevent him from being great. Should fantasy football managers pay a second-round price tag for the talented WR?

    Brandon Aiyuk’s Fantasy Forecast

    Fantasy managers may be viewing Aiyuk as a WR1, but even his high-WR2 numbers should be looked at as impressive. After all, the 49ers have been the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL over the past two seasons.

    Aiyuk seemed destined for greatness after his stellar rookie season, which saw him average 15.4 fantasy points per game. He took a step back as a sophomore, averaging just 10.0 points per game, but then, in his third year, the true climb began.

    In 2022, Aiyuk averaged 13.4 fantasy ppg before setting a career-high 15.6 points per game in 2023.

    It’s clear Aiyuk is the No. 1 wide receiver in San Francisco’s offense. While that, alone, is important, what’s more important for fantasy is what being an NFL WR1 typically means for a player’s volume.

    The target share threshold for WR1s is about 25%, which is exactly what Aiyuk earned last season. Unfortunately, not all 25% target shares are created equal.

    Due to the 49ers’ low-volume passing attack, Aiyuk only caught 75 passes. On the positive side, the efficiency of his offense enabled him to turn that into 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns.

    Aiyuk has always been a decent downfield receiver, but he took it to another level in 2023. His 13.8 aDOT (average depth of target) was 17th in the league. That resulted in him averaging a stellar 12.8 yards per target and 3.18 yards per route run, second and third in the league, respectively.

    Aiyuk burst out of the gate last year, posting his best week of the season in Week 1, scoring 32.9 fantasy points. Overall, he didn’t have many spike weeks, with just four games of 20+ fantasy points. However, Aiyuk registered just three games under 10 fantasy points, proving that he rarely completely fails.

    While Aiyuk’s efficiency was elite last season, volume is king in fantasy football. It’s difficult to envision a scenario where Aiyuk is ever targeted at the level of guys like CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, or Tyreek Hill.

    To be fair, we’re not asking Aiyuk to be any of those guys. However, he’s being drafted as the WR17, No. 34 overall.

    I like Aiyuk. He’s a very good player in a very good situation. I would not be upset if he was on my fantasy team. At that price, he’s a fine pick. The problem is I don’t buy the price. I believe it is a product of fear over his contract/trade situation. If you draft after that is resolved, his ADP is going to move.

    Regardless of what happens, though, Aiyuk unlikely to completely bust. But I have a difficult time figuring out how Aiyuk can significantly improve upon last season.

    Aiyuk is competing for targets with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and now Ricky Pearsall. We know targets are a skill statistic and earned by good players. We know Aiyuk is a good player, but so are all of these other guys.

    In the 49ers’ offense, Aiyuk is never going to be a heavy total volume guy. With that in mind, I once again pose the question: How does Aiyuk improve upon last season?

    In 2023, Aiyuk was second in the league at 17.9 yards per reception, a jump of 4.9 ypr from the previous season. Even if we project him to maintain that (which we shouldn’t), it’s hard to project any increase in target share. That leaves the only path to improvement in the touchdown department.

    Can Aiyuk score more than seven times this season? Sure, but touchdowns are flukey. He can just as easily score five touchdowns as he can 12.

    If Aiyuk falls to me at the right price, I will gladly scoop him up. However, he’s my WR15 for a reason.

    It’s because I believe every player I have ranked above him has a similar floor with a much higher ceiling. There are a handful of guys ranked below him with higher upside as well (but lower downside). As a result, Aiyuk is not necessarily someone to target in fantasy drafts.

    2025 NFL Mock Draft Simulator

    The PFN Mock Draft Simulator features hundreds of prospects, scouting reports, and free trades -- jump into the FREE mock draft machine and get ready for the 2025 NFL Draft.

    2025 NFL Season & Playoff Predictor

    PFSN's 2025 NFL Season and Playoff Predictor is a tool that allows you to play out various weekly scenarios to see how the NFL playoff picture changes with each scenario.

    NFL Offseason Manager: Salary Cap, Free Agency, and More

    Do you think you can manage your favorite team’s roster better than the real-life general managers? PFN's Offseason Manager is here to help you prove it.

    Guess the NFL Player

    Test your NFL knowledge with PFSN's Guess the NFL Player game, the ultimate NFL player guessing game for football fans!

    NFL Offensive Line Rankings 2025: Insights Into All 32 OLs Following Jaylon Moore and Morgan Moses Deals

    Our NFL OL rankings break down the performance of all 32 units across the regular season and playoffs using our OL+ metric.

    Top 121 NFL Free Agent Rankings: Josh Sweat, Chris Godwin, Sam Darnold Lead Massive Free Agent Class

    After the flurry of re-signings took top talents off the market, who is still available in time for the legal tampering period and the start of free agency?

    Raiders Star Maxx Crosby Sends Bold Message to Rest of NFL About His Lofty Goals After Signing $106.5 Million Deal

    Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby says he wants to be the "Greatest Raider ever" after signing three-year, $106.5 million extension.

    Steelers Legend Ben Roethlisberger Makes Feelings Clear on Pittsburgh’s Trade for 2-Time Pro Bowler DK Metcalf

    After expressing his special wish on DK Metcalf's trade to the Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger looks excited for his former team's future.
    Join the Conversation!

    LEAVE A REPLY

    Please enter your comment!
    Please enter your name here