While the draft and waivers impact a fantasy football team, nothing else matters if you make the wrong lineup decisions. As managers make the final tweaks to their lineups for the opening round of the playoffs in Week 15, should you start San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk against the Seattle Seahawks in your fantasy football lineup?
Brandon Aiyuk Has Turned Into a Significant Fantasy Contributor
The easy thing to do this year was to be down on San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. He was firmly entrenched in Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse for the majority of 2021; there was no upside.
However, things took a turn towards the end of last season, which gave me hope for 2022. Aiyuk was the WR14 in Weeks 10 through 17 with 31 receptions on 46 targets for 489 yards and three touchdowns while playing on at least 90% of the snaps in every game, finishing 13th in YPRR.
MORE: Fantasy Injury IR Updates Week 15
Even in the pre-draft process, I was saying Aiyuk was a better draft day value than Deebo Samuel. So far, that’s not entirely wrong. Aiyuk has a 21.3% target share this season and leads the team in receiving touchdowns (seven) and air-yard share (30.2%). He sits 31st in YPRR and is the WR26 in points per game at 13.4 PPR. Not bad for a guy who is now on his third quarterback.
Speaking of Brock Purdy, Aiyuk’s numbers have dropped a touch since the rookie took over, which is to be expected. With Purdy under center, Aiyuk has a 19.4% target share while averaging six targets and 51.5 receiving yards in their two games together.
However, we should expect to see a boost in Aiyuk’s target share, given the absence of Samuel, who is dealing with both an ankle injury and a knee injury, which has ended his fantasy football season.
Since 2020, in his eight games without Samuel, Aiyuk has gone from averaging six targets, 3.9 receptions, 54.3 yards, and 12.2 PPR to 7.9 targets, 5.1 receptions, 60.12 yards, and 15.4 PPR points.
With Purdy expected to play on Thursday night against the Seattle Seahawks, is Aiyuk a must-start for fantasy managers in Week 15 in the opening round of the playoffs?
Should You Start Brandon Aiyuk Against the Seahawks in Week 15?
For me, if you’ve had Aiyuk on your team, he’s been a starter for you for the majority of the season. Heck, I’ve been ranking him ahead of Samuel, even when the latter was healthy, ever since Christian McCaffrey joined them.
Since Week 6, Aiyuk is the WR9 overall and is 14th in points per game at 15.9 PPR while averaging 7.4 targets, 5.1 receptions, 65 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per contest. That’s a 17-game pace of over 1,100 yards and 13 touchdowns on 125 targets with nearly 90 receptions.
MORE: Week 15 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings
I do want to give Seattle credit, as their secondary has seen massive improvement, primarily thanks to the acquisition of first-year CB Tariq Woolen, who is giving Sauce Gardner a run for his money for the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. However, since Week 10, Seattle is 24th in passing DVOA, 24th in EPA, and 29th in success rate.
If you have Aiyuk on your team, even though Thursday Night Football has been wacky, he’s a must-start low-end WR2 for Week 15.