With uncertainty surrounding the offense in Houston, what is the fantasy football outlook for WR Brandin Cooks in 2021? Can Cooks return value on his ADP as he enters this season as one of five active receivers to exceed 1,000 receiving yards in at least five seasons since 2015?
Brandin Cooks’ fantasy outlook for 2021
Cooks has caught passes from Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Jared Goff throughout his career and has thrived. The perception surrounding him is that he misses games due to concussions, but the reality is that Cooks has only missed three games over the last six seasons.
The veteran receiver has averaged 7.1 targets, 4.7 receptions, 66.7 receiving yards, 88 receiving air yards (indicating how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught), and 14.1 PPR fantasy points per game in his career. Cooks has finished as a WR2+ in 41% of his 103 career games. He’s played 82% of the offensive snaps.
Cooks is now in a position to finish 2021 as the most targeted Texans receiver. Will Fuller signed with the Dolphins during free agency, and Randall Cobb was traded to the Packers. Given Cooks’ statistical body of work, he’s unlikely to be out-targeted by Nico Collins, Anthony Miller, Chris Conley, or Keke Coutee.
The soon-to-be 28-year-old receiver should be provided a similar target share as 2020. Cooks finished with 37% of the Texans’ WR targets and 21.4% of the team’s target share. Tight ends Jordan Akins and Pharaoh Brown will not be major contributors in the passing game. It would be surprising to see this duo surpass 90 combined targets.
Houston averaged 34.1 pass attempts (23rd) and 21.5 (31st) rushing attempts per game last season. This trend is likely to continue whether or not Deshaun Watson is under center. Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills are both capable of running the Texans’ offense.
The Texans have the same offensive coordinator returning in 2021
The Texans hired David Culley to be the new head coach. Culley decided to keep Tim Kelly on as the offensive coordinator while hiring former NFL head coach Lovie Smith to be the new defensive coordinator. The continuity with Kelly is a good thing for the offense heading into 2021.
Houston is most likely to continue leaning heavily on the passing game
Houston is coming off one of their worst seasons in franchise history in regards to running the football. The Texans only averaged 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game (30th).
As a result, Watson and the passing game carried the Texans’ offense. He finished with 4,823 passing yards and a franchise-high 33 touchdowns. The Texans averaged 283.6 passing yards per game, which ranked fourth in the NFL.
Houston did, however, attempt to stabilize the running game this offseason. David Johnson, Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead are the Texans’ top running backs.
The most exciting addition was Lindsay, who signed a one-year contract. Lindsay has two 1,000-yard rushing seasons on his NFL résumé. All four running backs will see targets out of the backfield and are likely to combine for around 100 targets.
Will the Texans’ offensive line improve in 2021?
The Texans enter this season with nine new offensive linemen. Houston has adequate depth to handle the ups and downs of an NFL season. The Texans project to have a mediocre offensive line. It’s important to have the proper expectations this season.
Cooks is in a great situation to lead the Texans in targets and receiving air yards. He has accumulated targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns throughout his career, and that is unlikely to change in 2021. Furthermore, Cooks has shown the ability to transcend mediocre quarterback play.
The Texans will be a pass-heavy offense in 2021. They will also likely be chasing a lot of games, with their defense unlikely to be significantly improved this season.
Fantasy projection
Cooks projects for around 130 targets, 85 receptions, 1,100 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns.
Brandin Cooks’ ADP
Cooks is usually available in the ninth round when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker. In pay-to-play fantasy formats, such as the National Fantasy Championship, Cooks has an ADP of 92.35. Meanwhile, his ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is 89.3.
Should you draft Cooks in 2021?
Cooks currently looks to be a great value at his current ADP. He is a high-end WR3 in PPR formats, with the potential to finish as a WR2 in the Texans’ offense.