The Denver Broncos will face the Buffalo Bills on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Bo Nix.
Is Bo Nix Playing vs. the Bills?
Nix is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Broncos’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Bo Nix on Wild Card Weekend?
Nix made NFL history as the first rookie QB with 3+ TD passes and a 75% completion rate in four games. He also matched the franchise record for such games in a season (Peyton Manning had four in both 2012 and 2013). We knew that Sean Payton got his guy in the draft, we just had no idea that this would be a fantasy-friendly situation from the jump.
Everyone is picking the Bills to win this game, but few people figure to land on Nix. In what figures to be a fantasy-friendly script for this passing game, Nix could very well be put in a position where he needs to do it all, a nice role given the discounted price in the DFS streets.
Buffalo has plenty of strengths, but they are the worst playoff team in getting off the field (43.8% opponent third-down conversion rate; NFL average: 39.7%) and struggle against the slot (fifth-highest completion percentage). Those weaknesses can elevate Nix’s floor, something that is very appealing given that we are aware of his ceiling potential via Courtland Sutton and/or his rushing ability.
I’m not clicking on Nix in a cash setting where half the field is paid out, but if you’re in a top-heavy payout contest, he’s a very lively option.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Bo Nix’s Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
As of Sunday, Nix is projected to score 18.1 fantasy points on Wild Card Weekend. This includes 278.5 passing yards, 1.2 passing touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions. It also includes 3.2 rushing attempts for 17.6 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Buffalo Bills finished 18th this year. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
For the season, Buffalo had a strong run defense (sixth in EPA per rush) but a leaky pass defense (26th in EPA per dropback). Dominating the AFC East cellar-dwellers was a nice palette cleanser before potential playoff matchups against the likes of Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes (if they escape the Broncos).
Buffalo's offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo has met that threshold against lesser competition but will be challenged in the playoffs to help the Josh Allen-Sean McDermott era reach its first Super Bowl.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head over to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Bo Nix’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 12. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (vs. DEN)
2) Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs. PIT)
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. GB)
4) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at TB)
5) Baker Mayfield | TB (vs. WAS)
6) Sam Darnold | MIN (at LAR)
7) Bo Nix | DEN (at BUF)
8) Justin Herbert | LAC (at HOU)
9) Jordan Love | GB (at PHI)
10) Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs. MIN)
11) Russell Wilson | PIT (at BAL)
12) C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs. LAC)
13) Justin Fields | PIT (at BAL)
14) Kenny Pickett | PHI (vs. GB)
15) Jimmy Garoppolo | LAR (vs. MIN)
16) Kyle Trask | TB (vs. WAS)
17) Devin Leary | BAL (vs. PIT)
18) Nick Mullens | MIN (at LAR)
19) Mitchell Trubisky | BUF (vs. DEN)
20) Marcus Mariota | WAS (at TB)
21) Jarrett Stidham | DEN (at BUF)
22) Easton Stick | LAC (at HOU)
23) Davis Mills | HOU (vs. LAC)
24) Malik Willis | GB (at PHI)
Broncos at Bills Trends and Insights
Denver Broncos
Team: Bo Nix got this team to 10 wins. Their last double-digit win season came in 2015, a season that ended with a Super Bowl.
QB: Bo Nix made NFL history as the first QB with 3+ TD passes and 75% complete in four games as a rookie. He also matched the franchise record for such games in a season (Peyton Manning had four such games in both 2012 and 2013).
Offense: Since Week 11, the Broncos have been the third-highest scoring team in the league (32.6 PPG).
Defense: The Broncos beat the Chiefs on Sunday, their first win this season in a game in which they didn’t force a turnover (lost the previous four).
Fantasy: Courtland Sutton has scored 18 times on 225 targets over the past two seasons (two seasons prior: four touchdowns on 207 targets).
Betting: Over the past two months, the Broncos have two losses on normal-to-extended rest – an overtime loss to Joe Burrow and a two-point loss to Patrick Mahomes (GW 35-yard FGA was blocked at the buzzer).
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills have made the postseason in seven of eight seasons under Sean McDermott (he was hired with the franchise on a 17-year playoff drought).
QB: This is the sixth straight season in which Josh Allen is playing on Wild Card Weekend – he’s completed at least 70% of his passes in three of his past four, with multiple TD tosses in each of those contests (one touchdown pass for every 13.5 attempts across those four contests).
Offense: The first 30-30 team in NFL history (passing and rushing touchdowns). Balance is good until it’s not – only twice in NFL history has a team with 30+ rush TDs won their conference (2022 Eagles and 1983 Commanders).
Defense: Excluding Week 18, when most of the starters were very limited, if not out altogether, the Buffalo defensive trends on third down are concerning.
- Weeks 6-13: 36.5%
- Weeks 14-17: 57.1% converted
Fantasy: Remove the outlier shootout game against the Rams in Week 14 and Amari Cooper has been targeted on just 15.4% of his routes as a member of the Bills (Weeks 1-6 with Cleveland: 22.8%).
Betting: The Bills went 5-3 ATS at home with overs going 6-2, a change of pace from their 4-5 ATS mark and 3-6 overs record a season ago.