Bo Nix is in the running for Offensive Rookie of the Year thanks to a second-half surge that has the Denver Broncos firmly in the playoff mix.
Nix got off to a rough start, but as his college career attests, he’s capable of finishing strong. Let’s revisit Nix’s decorated college career.
Bo Nix’s Collegiate Career
Nix’s career, in hindsight, will be a case study on football players, how their initial surroundings can impact them, and how a change of scenery can be a catalyst for growth and development.
Nix originally signed with the Auburn Tigers as a four-star recruit out of high school, following in his father Patrick Nix’s footsteps. At Auburn, Nix was under the SEC spotlight, and that stage earned him early notoriety — for reasons both good and bad.
Nix’s true freshman season went about as well as one could hope. Nix led the Tigers to a 9-4 record and an incredible Iron Bowl win over Alabama, and Nix won SEC Freshman of the Year. But through 2020 and 2021, Nix began to wear down. He posted a combined 23 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions over those two years, suffering a season-ending injury in 2021.
On Dec. 12, 2021, Nix announced he was entering the transfer portal, describing himself as “miserable” while playing under Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin, who had been hired in 2021.
This enabled him to join up with his offensive coordinator from 2019 — Kenny Dillingham — in Eugene, Ore.; the move not only united Nix with his trusted coach but also gave the young QB a chance to focus on his development.
Oregon proved to be exactly what Nix needed, but Nix also gave the Ducks some of the best QB play in the modern CFB age.
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Nix went a combined 22-5 over two seasons at Oregon, and in 2023, he completed an FBS-record 77.4% of his passes at 9.6 yards per attempt for 4,508 yards, 45 touchdowns, and just three picks.
As a result of his early beginnings as a starter and an extra year of eligibility due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Nix ended up starting 61 games between Auburn and Oregon. That’s the most in NCAA history for a quarterback.
When Was Nix Drafted?
Nix was expected to be a Day 2 pick for most of the 2024 NFL Draft process. However, he began to surge up boards late and was eventually picked 12th overall by the Broncos.
Nix was actually the sixth quarterback drafted despite his high selection, the earliest ever for the sixth QB to be drafted. The 2024 class tied the famed 1983 NFL Draft class for the most first-round quarterbacks selected in the Common Draft Era (which dates back to 1967).
Nix was the second-highest drafted quarterback in Broncos history behind Jay Cutler (11th overall in 2006 — recall that John Elway was drafted first overall but rather by the Baltimore Colts). In addition, he’s easily the highest-drafted quarterback by Sean Payton, who had the good fortune of working with Drew Brees (second-round pick, 32nd overall by the San Diego Chargers in 2001) with the New Orleans Saints from 2006-20.
How Has Bo Nix Fared During His Rookie Season?
Nix has been a pleasant surprise this season, exceeding expectations for the Broncos.
This year, he has thrown for 2,972 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on a 63.6% completion percentage while also rushing for 327 yards and four touchdowns.
However, he has struggled a bit as of late.
In PFN’s QB+ metric, Nix is currently ranked as the 25th-best quarterback in the NFL with a 69.5 (D+) grade.
What is PFN’s QB+ metric? We’ve created a formula for assigning a letter grade to every quarterback’s performance. It factors in a number of stats, including success rates when pressured, third-down conversion rate, and pocket production. The added wrinkle in this PFN Insight is quantifying “clutch.” Defining “clutch” performance is an imperfect science. In this case, we’ve used timeliness-based stats to account for score and situation.
While Nix has flashed at times and certainly has potential, we might need to pump the brakes on his Offensive Rookie of the Year hype train. The award is about the best performances over the season, not the most improved, and Nix has not been the best rookie quarterback consistently this season.
In Week 15, we saw another example of this, as Nix recorded his first D+ grade of the season but his fourth below a C- in 14 starts this season.
The most startling part of Nix’s play in Week 15 was his -0.29 EPA/DB from a clean pocket, which ranked bottom three on the week. He was better relative to the rest of the field when pressured but finished with a 29th-ranked overall EPA/DB of -0.31. His 130 passing yards and 3.7 nYPA were ranked 29th and 32nd on the week, respectively, while he also threw three interceptions.
No one is expecting Nix to be perfect, but at times this year, his performances have been overrated by some analysts and the Broncos fan base. He now ranks 23rd across the last four weeks, below both Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and New England Patriots QB Drake Maye over the same time span.
On the season, Nix ranks 29th from a clean pocket (0.12) and 25th when pressured (-0.43), while his nYPA of 6.0 is only 0.8 yards above his YAC/Cp number on the year (5.2).
Nix offers the Broncos a lot of promise, but he’s far from a polished quarterback yet, and his level of play this season remains somewhat under the body of work we’ve seen from Daniels.