Evaluating the quarterback position is an inexact science, right? These NFL teams are worth millions of dollars. If there were a fool-proof way to project success at the most important position in professional sports, we’d have it by now.
That said, QBs seem to be failing at a higher rate now than ever before. Why? Is there a common thread tying the underwhelming young signal-callers together? Are we overthinking how to properly develop the position?
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Young NFL QBs: Recent Failures and Successes
Of course, there is a subjective component to all of this. These high-pedigree quarterbacks are usually drafted by a bad team, making simple win/loss records a flawed way to look at this. Raw statistics aren’t fair either, as a bad quarterback can compile garbage time numbers in volume, and we’d essentially be rewarding him for struggling. That doesn’t seem right either.
This is where I’m going to trust the NFL to point us in the right direction. Since 2021, 12 quarterbacks threw 100+ passes as a rookie and were given a legitimate chance to prove themselves as the man for the position.
Half of the 12 are on shaky ground at best, if not outright dismissed from the long-term picture; half look to have a clear future in this league (for the record, while the Anthony Richardson benching helped spark this think tank, his rookie numbers are not included, as injuries limited him to appearing in portions of just four games last season).
Our QB+ metric looks at several statistics, including net yards per attempt (nYPA), third-down conversion rate, passing under pressure, and passing from a clean pocket. Additionally, we have quantified performances in clutch situations using statistics from different key scenarios within a game.
By no means is QB+ the perfect metric, and we will continue to develop it throughout the season and beyond. However, when we analyzed it against the past five years, the results were extremely indicative of what we saw on the field while providing enough nuance away from traditional statistics for measuring quarterback play.
QB+: Failing Grade
- Mac Jones (#15 pick, 2021)
- 32nd of 34 QBs in QB+ in 2023
- Zach Wilson (#2 pick, 2021)
- QB33, QB30, and QB31 in QB+ in his three starting seasons
- Justin Fields (#11 pick, 2021)
- 27th of 34 QBs in QB+ in 2023
- Kenny Pickett (#20 pick, 2022)
- 30th of 34 QBs in QB+ in 2023
- Will Levis (#33 pick, 2023)
- 31st of 32 QBs in QB+ in 2024
- Bryce Young (#1 pick, 2023)
- 33rd of 34 QBs in QB+ in 2023
Levis flips it backwards and its a Jets fumble recovery!
📺: #NYJvsTEN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/nZ38jEOfOo— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
QB+: Passing Grade
- Trevor Lawrence (#1 pick, 2021)
- QB9 in QB+ in 2022
- Brock Purdy (#262 pick, 2022)
- QB1 in QB+ in 2023
- C.J. Stroud (#2 pick, 2023)
- QB5 in QB+ in 2023
- Bo Nix (#12 pick, 2024)
- Showing growth, earned a B in Week 8
- Jayden Daniels (#2 pick, 2024)
- QB2 in QB+ in 2024
- Caleb Williams (#1 pick, 2024)
- Earned consecutive B+ grades in Weeks 5-6
Why? Why are some of these prospects on the MVP board and playoff picture while others are holding a clipboard?
How To Aid Young QBs Drafted in the NFL
We could dive into prospect profiles and get into the nitty gritty all day, but isn’t that putting the horse before the cart a bit?
How about we start where the production, for better or worse, starts. How’s that sound?
Play-calling and personnel.
“You run to set up the pass.” Plenty of old adages fall by wayside with time, but this one has hung on for dear life and even more so with rookies. The top portion of that list (the busts) saw 22% of their pass attempts come off of play-action, a rate that checks in well below the bottom half of that list (24.8%). The difference between success and failure at the NFL level is razor-thin, and a play-calling boost like that pays significant dividends.
Over that time frame (2021-24), rookie quarterbacks see their yards per completed pass increase by 24% when on play-action and their touchdown rate spike by 53.6%. Those numbers aren’t only impressive, they signify a greater advantage gained on those plays than the rates non-rookie QBs produced over that same stretch (+18.1% in yards per completion and 23.8% in touchdown rate).
It shouldn’t be a surprise that the successful rookie quarterbacks were put in a better position to succeed, nor should it be a surprise that the tools they had to work with possessed more pedigree and upside.
When looking at the WR1 for the QBs on the bust list, they posted a 10.4 average depth of target the season prior to joining forces with the rookie, a number that fell 15% short of that of the QBs on the positive side of the QB+ ledger. All of these quarterbacks came out of college with talent, and the ones who were supported with a more vertical option have proven to have more staying power.
Deep routes and athletic ability receivers are part of the equation, but the perceived talent of those options is another. If we remove the WR1s that entered the season over the age of 30, understanding that their best days were behind them and evaluating their draft capital is thus a bit of a fool’s errand as that is not the receiver that is on the field …
- ADP of WR1 for Bust QBs: 91.0*
- ADP of WR1 for Successful QBs: 50.8
*This doesn’t include a figure for undrafted Jakobi Meyers. If included as one pick beyond the final pick of the draft, this average plummets further to 134.0
Funny how that works, isn’t it? The quarterbacks with creative play-calling and talented support have a way of living up to the hype, while those who aren’t given those luxuries bottom out in short order.
Which NFL Teams Are Set Up for QB Success in 2025 NFL Draft?
That brings us to our final portion of this exercise — which teams in the market for a franchise quarterback in 2025 could support a future star?
I have the Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, and Las Vegas Raiders highlighted as teams that could/should be willing to spend an early pick on a signal-caller in April. Understanding that things are fluid, here’s a snapshot as to the boxes these teams do/don’t check through eight weeks of this season.
Panthers
- Fifth in script-neutral play-action rate
- Xavier Legette owns an 11.5-yard aDOT
- Xavier Legette was the 32nd overall pick
Titans
- 13th in script-neutral play-action rate
- Calvin Ridley owns a 15.7-yard aDOT
- Calvin Ridley was the 26th overall pick
Giants
- 14th in script-neutral play-action rate
- Malik Nabers owns an 11.5-yard aDOT
- Malik Nabers was the sixth overall pick
Raiders
- 20th in script-neutral play-action rate
- Jakobi Meyers owns an 8.9-yard aDOT
- Jakboi Meyers was undrafted
Based on recent trends, three of these four franchises would give their rookie QB a decent chance to succeed — there might well be hope for these fan bases after all!