The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens will end the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs on Sunday night as they do battle at Highmark Stadium. With the game set to kickoff at 6:30 p.m. ET, weather certainly becomes a factor. What are the current weather conditions and will they have any sort of impact on the game?
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Weather
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: 15-20 degrees Fahrenheit
- Showers: 25% chance at kickoff increasing throughout the game
- Wind: 5-7 mph variable
With temperatures below 20 degrees Fahrenheit and variable winds, it will likely be a relief to players and fans alike that only 0.5 inches of snow is currently forecast to fall during the game.
However, this is another highly changeable forecast, and multiple inches of snow are projected from midnight onward. It is not inconceivable that we could see heavier snowfall than the current forecast projects.
In terms of how that may impact the game, we can look back over the last decade for an idea. In 17 games with snow falling at kickoff, the average points scored is 41.53. That is actually slightly higher than the 40.06 points scored in games with rain at kickoff but around 10% below the 45.9 points when a game kicks off in clear conditions.
The main impact of snow is felt in the passing game, with the average fantasy points per quarterback per team falling from over 13.5 to around 9.7. Accordingly, the average number of fantasy points by a receiver drops from 56.1 to 43.3, with passing yards per play falling from 6.3 to 5.57. The kicking game also sees a decline, but only noticeably in kicks over 50 yards, with zero being made in the last decade.
Where we do see an increase is in the run game, with fantasy points per game increasing from 16.3 to 20.3. Interestingly, the average rushing yards per game only increase from 113.8 per game to 127.4. However, we see more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns in snow games, and we see more targets per game for running backs in snow games.
All that said, the weather might benefit the running game if that ends up being what happens during the game. The big four in terms of fantasy options in this game — Josh Allen, James Cook, Lamar Jackson, and Derrick Henry — should not be too heavily impacted and may actually see a slight boost from a snow game.
MORE: Top NFL Snow Games of All Time
The colder weather in Orchard Park, N.Y., is a concern. Temperatures below 30 degrees Fahrenheit do tend to impact the outcome of the game. Over the past decade, the average points scored in games played at 30 degrees Fahrenheit or above is 45.71.
Meanwhile, an average of 41.13 points has been scored in 53 games played in temperatures between 20 and 30 degrees Fahrenheit, and an average of 39.68 points has been scored in 25 games played with a temperature between 10 and 20 degrees Fahrenheit.
We then see a drop in fantasy output in those games, with an average drop of around 10% when the temperature falls to between 10 and 30 degrees Fahrenheit. All of that drop-off comes in the passing game, with the run game seeing similar outputs in terms of fantasy points regardless of the temperatures.
While sustained wind speeds of 10-13 mph and gusts over 20 mph should not be dismissed, they do not significantly increase the more general impact of the cold temperatures. The main impact comes on the kicking game, where we see field goal success rates on kicks over 50 yards plummet to below 50%, but from inside of 50, there is little notable impact.
The variable winds should not be too much of an issue as the speeds are relatively low. Ultimately, the only member of this passing game you were really relying on was Mark Andrews, and he should still have enough value to be usable. From a receiving perspective, it is tough to feel good about either team.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Stats and Insights
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Lamar Jackson was the MVP in 2019. The next season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 179 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Advanced to play a 13-win Bills team
Jackson was the MVP in 2023. This season …
- *Won on Wild Card Weekend (he had 175 pass yards)
- *Derrick Henry was the home RB in that Wild Card game
- *Will play a 13-win Bills team
QB: Since Week 9, Jackson has completed 75.8% of his non-pressured passes with 20 touchdowns and just one interception on those 161 attempts.
Offense: Over their past five games (all wins), Baltimore has scored a touchdown on 40.8% of their drives (they were one of the elite offenses prior to this run with a 33.3% rate).
Defense: Opponents are 0-of-6 on fourth downs against the Ravens over the past four games (prior: 12-of-23).
Fantasy: On Saturday, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to have four games in a season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing touchdowns when he was 30+ years of age.
Betting: Baltimore has covered six of eight road games after failing to do so in the season opener at Arrowhead.
Buffalo Bills
Team: All four of Buffalo’s losses this season have come following a blowout result the week prior.
QB: Excluding the one-snap Week 18, Josh Allen is 13-of-16 with two touchdowns and zero interceptions on third down over his past two games.
Offense: The Bills have not committed a turnover in six of seven games since their Week 12 bye.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to score a TD on all four of their red zone trips in their Week 4 meeting – they’ve allowed two red zone scores on six trips over their past three games (Denver was 0-of-1).
Fantasy: The Bills didn’t lead for a single second of the first game with the Ravens – James Cook’s production over expectation this season is 16.4% higher when playing from ahead as opposed to behind.
Betting: The Bills have rotated covering with not covering in seven straight games (they covered easily against the Broncos on Sunday).
