If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this dramatic Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Wild Card matchup on Sunday, you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Bills vs. Dolphins Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Thirty years ago this Tuesday, the Bills and Dolphins played in the AFC Championship Game. Buffalo, led in part by 1983 first-round QB Jim Kelly, was trying to reach the Super Bowl for the third straight year. Miami, led in large part by 1983 first-round QB Dan Marino, was trying to reach their second Super Bowl in the Marino era.
I remember watching that game, and although I can’t find a play-by-play online, I remember the Dolphins calling a timeout on the Bills’ opening drive. “Well, that’s an omen,” I told my college roommate. Because normally, Super Bowl-caliber teams don’t call defensive timeouts in the opening minutes. Because if you need to make significant adjustments that early, that’s a problem.
Buffalo proceeded to walk over Miami, 29-10. The Dolphins haven’t returned to the title game since. Thirty years later, the circumstances are different in many ways. Back then, Miami won their division, earning a first-round bye and home-field advantage. It was a battle between two formidable offenses, led by two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
But just as Buffalo overwhelmed Miami for most of that game, there’s a good chance they’ll do it again on Sunday — in large part because the Dolphins are not the same team that they were midseason at 8-3. A significant downgrade at QB changes everything.
Against a middling franchise like the Jets, Miami could persevere. But not against a juggernaut like the Bills.
The following prop recommendations assume Buffalo will prevail by a final score of roughly 37-9. At some point, we might see Mike Glennon. Enough said.
Josh Allen Player Props
I call it as I see it. If you’re a Buffalo fan, maybe this makes you happy. If you’re a Dolphins fan, maybe it upsets you.
But if you’re a bettor, then you know why you’re here. Assuming the Bills win soundly, I’m all in on Josh Allen delivering buckets of yards. Perhaps Allen won’t run as much as usual, because he won’t need to.
- Passing yards over 257.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-150) — DraftKings - Interceptions under 0.5
(-140) — BetMGM - Rushing yards under 50.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Stefon Diggs Player Props
The Dolphins have yielded the sixth-most passing yards. In fairness, they’ve faced the second-most pass attempts. But offenses haven’t been worried about throwing against a defense that’s fourth-to-last in interceptions (eight).
MORE: NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions
Stefon Diggs is good for a 40+ yard reception, and he’s a great bet for 90+ yards and a score. I’m very comfortable leaning into his prop line.
- Receiving yards over 77.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Gabe Davis Player Props
Buffalo needs to get the inconsistent Gabe Davis going. If they’re leaning heavily on a secondary or tertiary receiver deeper in the playoffs, they could be in trouble. But a prolific tandem of Diggs and Davis can help carry this franchise to their first Super Bowl. I’m betting on Allen to feed Davis and help get him going.
- Receiving yards over 48.5
(-105) — DraftKings
Tyreek Hill Player Props
The final three props are for Miami receivers. Facing a Buffalo defense surrendering a little over 200 passing yards per game, the Dolphins might muster 180-200, particularly if the game gets out of hand late. Of course, if that happens, I doubt Miami would keep their starters on the field.
There’s a narrow path for Tyreek Hill to exceed 60 yards. It’s doable, and it also would come at the expense of Jaylen Waddle. There’s simply not enough firepower at QB to effectively feed more than one receiver against the Bills — and “one” might be optimistic.
I’m fading Hill at his prop line because it doesn’t make sense to wager on narrow probabilities.
- Receiving yards under 61.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Jaylen Waddle Player Props
See above. I think Waddle can get 35 yards. But I also think the Dolphins will reach a point where they’ll take what Buffalo’s giving them. The Bills will try to lock down Waddle and Hill, forcing Trent Sherfield, Mike Gesicki, and other secondary/tertiary options to make low-upside plays.
- Receiving yards under 47.5
(-115) — DraftKings
Mike Gesicki Player Props
It’s no coincidence that Gesicki’s second-highest yardage total of the season (46) came in the final week — a must-win game to advance to the postseason (with a Patriots loss).
Surprisingly (but not surprisingly if you’ve followed this team closely), Gesicki hit nine enjoyable 40+ yard performances last season. But this season? Only three, the previous one coming in Week 6, with the Fins trying to stave off a three-game losing streak.
The story of Gesicki in 2022 is the story of the Dolphins: a talented team built to compete for the title, but too often falling flat (in fairness, sometimes due to impactful injuries). On another team — heck, last year — Gesicki could be a top-eight TE playmaker. With their season once again on the line, I expect him to get fed.
- Receiving yards over 17.5
(-110) — DraftKings