Both of these teams feature an emerging fantasy football running back and have a secondary receiver who offers week-winning upside next to their goose-egg downside. Who can you trust in Week 3?
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Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders
- Spread: Bills -6.5
- Total: 44
- Bills implied points: 25.3
- Commanders implied points: 18.8
Josh Allen
We saw the Allen we’ve come to know and love last week against the “defense” of the Raiders, as he completed 31 of 37 passes for 274 yards and three scores.
With all of the success through the air, he only picked up seven yards on the ground, capping his fantasy upside a little bit. But we know the rushing will be there, so it was good to see him get on track with that cannon attached to his right shoulder.
This is a big spot for Allen. He’s been miserable on the road as of late, something worth noting not just for this week but because in Weeks 12 to 17 (five games), he plays three road games, and the two home games come against strong defenses (DAL and NE)
Last five road games:
- Yards per pass: 6.2
- Touchdown passes: 7
- Interceptions: 8
Allen did enough last week to retain his Tier 1 status at the position for me, though I do want to see him do it again in this spot against a Commanders defense that allowed Russell Wilson to throw for 308 yards and three scores (even without the 50-yard Hail Mary, Wilson looked comfortable in taking shots against this defense)
Sam Howell
Assets like Howell are how you win Superflex leagues. He’s finished inside the top 15 at the position both weeks this season and was impressive with his arm in a tough spot against the Broncos last week (27 for 39 for 299 yards and two TDs).
Nothing he does is overwhelming, but he doesn’t have many flaws either. He’s mobile enough to demand some attention (rush TD in Week 1 vs. AZ), and his weapons offer enough upside to give him 300-yard potential in the right spot.
This Bills defense is a tough matchup, and I expect Washington to try to control the tempo, so Howell isn’t a top-15 play for me this week, but don’t sleep on him moving forward if you play in a league that allows you to start multiple QBs — he’s going to continue to produce viable numbers more often than not.
James Cook
Often, when people say “trust the process, not the results,” they are referring to a player who underachieved but projects better moving forward.
That’s not the case here. Cook’s touch count (21) and fantasy production (17.9 points) were the results you want, but the process is in question. Buffalo lived inside Las Vegas’ 30-yard line last week, and here is how their play-calling in that spot looked early on:
Pass
Latavius Murray run
Pass
Pass
Pass
Josh Allen QB sneak
Murray 4-yard TD run
Well, that’s not ideal. Nor is a Gabe Davis 2-yard touchdown reception, or a cheap Damien Harris 1-yard score late. Cook holds the volume role in an elite offense, and that’s awesome, but with the bulk of his opportunities coming between the 20s, the upside is more capped than most with a profile like this.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Cook and have him ranked as a fine RB2 this week. He’s going to be productive more often than not, I just worry that by banking on efficiency, his path to dud games is more likely than those he is generally ranked around.
Brian Robinson Jr.
Robinson was one of the biggest stories last season for his recovery from a gunshot wound, and this season his play is what has him in the headlines. I could tell you that he has been a top-15 running back both weeks, and that fact is impressive. In my opinion, how he has produced those numbers is the story more than the pure numbers.
We entered this season evaluating Robinson as something of a plodder. A hard-nosed runner with a one-dimensional skill set and limited per-touch upside. That simply hasn’t been the case through two weeks.
He has scored over five fantasy points as a pass catcher in both games and last week against the Broncos, he had a 20-yard gain both on the ground and through the air.
He holds a 35-to-5 touch advantage over Antonio Gibson since Gibson lost a fumble in the red zone in the season opener, and he deserves to be started in all formats, even against a Bills defense that shut down the Raiders’ ground game last week (Josh Jacobs: nine carries for -2 yards).
Antonio Gibson
Does he still need to be rostered? Half of his yards this season came on a single catch, and his role just isn’t what we assumed it would be. The talk this summer was that he would be J.D. McKissic-plus — that is, a reliable target share with some work in the passing game.
Instead, he’s an afterthought on the ground and splitting the opportunities in the passing game with Robinson. I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to look elsewhere for roster depth.
Stefon Diggs
I mentioned the road struggles for Allen of late, but his WR1 has remained a superstar despite it. Diggs has at least seven grabs and a touchdown in three of his past four road games and should continue to be viewed as one of the very best to do it.
Gabe Davis
We got a flash last week of what makes Davis so tempting. He led the team in targets (seven) and receiving yards (92) while scoring during an Allen scramble that saw Davis work back and give his QB a place to put the ball. He now has eight touchdown catches in his 12 career games with at least four receptions, making him a strong option in any game where we can project volume his way.
JOSH ALLEN TO GABE DAVIS
ANOTHER INCREDIBLE THROW BY JOSH ALLEN
pic.twitter.com/TDx1BXfnU3— CJSSports (@CJSSports_) September 17, 2023
I’m just not sure this is one of those spots. The Commanders were beaten on a few long balls last week, but their overall profile hints at a tough team to rack up opportunities against.
In the win over Denver, Wilson completed just 56.3% of his passes and held the ball for nearly 34 minutes. If this is a low time of possession and low completion percentage game for Allen, Davis is going to struggle.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
Those Allen road numbers above have sapped Davis of the “reward” portion of his “risk-reward” profile. It’s been over 11 months since the last time Davis cleared 45 receiving yards on the road, though it should be noted that he salvaged some value last season outside of Buffalo, as 18.2% of his catches resulted in scores.
That rate, of course, is unsustainable, so rolling with Davis is kind of like eating wings without a solid napkin plan: it could be the food highlight of your month, but it could also be a messy situation that you regret. Davis ranks outside of my top 35 receivers this week.
Terry McLaurin
We were nervous about the matchup with Patrick Surtain II last week, and that largely proved sharp. That is until McLaurin’s fantasy day was made with a late 30-yard TD. We went from right to wrong on a single play, and that is how this game works sometimes. I stand by the general process that got us to a McLaurin fade last week.
This week, in theory, should be something similar. Tre’Davious White is an All-World defender who is capable of erasing players from the stat sheet. But wait. Teams this season have been able to get creative and get their WR1 efficient looks against the Bills.
- Week 1: Garrett Wilson (11.9 fantasy points) catches all five targets
- Week 2: Davante Adams (17.4 fantasy points) catches 6 of 8 targets
Both of those options are the top pass catcher on their team playing with a QB that isn’t going to put up massive numbers — they both produced. Now, I do think McLaurin is slightly less talented than those options. I also feel good about Washington’s secondary option in the passing game being better than what the Jets or Raiders threw at Buffalo.
He’s not a fade for me this week like he was last, but he’s outside of my top 20, and I will again be going to his explosive teammate if I’m rostering one Commander receiver in DFS this weekend.
Jahan Dotson
Dotson was the target of Howell’s first two passes and three times on the first drive, feeding into the idea that the WR2 facing Denver is a must-play. Once the scripted portion of the game plan ran its course. However, Dotson was unable to earn opportunities.
After that first drive, the big play threat saw just two targets and finished with 22 yards. The dud was ugly, but I am a believer in the process, and that process will remain similar in Week 3 where Tre’Davious White is likely to spend time in the shadow of Davante Adams.
We are talking about an electric playmaker whose team wrote into the game plan in a significant way last week. I’m willing to bet on that profile, and it’s one that I think carries over to this weekend. Dotson is a strong Flex option for me and a player I will again be rostering in DFS.
Curtis Samuel
The appeal of Samuel was that of a weapon more than a pure receiver. Like a poor man’s version of the Samuel who resides in San Francisco. As it turns out, that’s a tough role for most to sustain, and with just two carries through two weeks, this Samuel doesn’t need to be rostered. He has a 100% catch rate this season and has just 13.2 fantasy points to show for it.
Dalton Kincaid
Patience young grasshopper. With time, I think the rookie may sneak into my top-10 at the TE position, but not until he starts earning targets at a higher rate than Dawson Knox. Last week, the duo split 11 targets, and Knox was the one catching the touchdown pass.
Kincaid has impressed, don’t get me wrong. Streaming the TE position is hard enough as it is, I’m avoiding a committee situation if I can. Keep an eye on the usage rates of these two – once Kincaid gains the edge, he’s not giving it back!
Logan Thomas
Thomas suffered a concussion on his TD reception in Week 2 and is unlikely to suit up this weekend. With eight targets in Week 1 and a touchdown last week, Thomas should be on the radar for TE streamers when he is cleared to return.
Who Should You Start in Week 3?
Should You Start Gabe Davis or Elijah Moore?
I prefer Moore in this spot. The Eagles have a variety of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and that has resulted in them conceding short targets. With Amari Cooper a threat downfield and Donovan Peoples-Jones more of a one-trick pony, Moore should have success in this spot.
Davis could have a second consecutive big game, but the floor scares me against the ball control stylings of the Commanders.
Should You Start Jahan Dotson or Garrett Wilson?
With Tre’Davious White likely clinging to McLaurin, I think there’s a good chance Dotson closes the target gap between him and Wilson. If Wilson isn’t going to hold a significant opportunity edge, I’ll take my chances with Sam Howell in a game where Washington will have to score over Zach Wilson in a slugfest.