Finally, we have reached one of the marquee games of the entire regular season. Week 6 of the 2022 NFL season features a showdown of powerhouse 4-1 teams as the Buffalo Bills face off against the Kansas City Chiefs. This is a rematch of the epic 2021 AFC Divisional Round that ended with a Chiefs win in overtime.
We’re covering all sports betting aspects of this matchup, with lines courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook. Want to win a free $200 on the NFL this season? As a new user on DraftKings Sportsbook, you can bet $5 and win $200 by betting on the NFL or college football.
Top Bills vs. Chiefs Player Props To Target
I’ve scoured through the list of same-game parlays, player prop bets, and totals available on the best playmakers for both the Bills and Chiefs. We’re using every tool at our disposal to make sharp prop bets, including fantasy averages, player trends, and the best vig. Let’s dive into the best prop bets you can target.
Travis Kelce First TD Scorer (+650) and Anytime TD (-150)
The display of dominance we saw out of Travis Kelce against the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football was incredible. Unfortunately, oddsmakers also noticed his four touchdowns and adjusted their odds of an anytime touchdown to -150. Frankly, that’s not a terrible return considering the likelihood he scores this week, but we’re hunting for more value.
The Bills have one of the best defenses in the league and are particularly effective at slowing tight ends. But Kelce has already bucked Buffalo’s performance because he’s unlikely any of his peers. He totaled 14 receptions for 153 yards and two scores in two games against the Bills last year.
Look for Kelce to continue his success, especially with Micah Hyde out for the season and Jordan Poyer dealing with a foot injury in Week 3 and rib injury in Week 5. Rolling the dice on Kelce scoring first could be our big score of the game, but we also like the anytime score for more risk-averse bettors.
Khalil Shakir Anytime TD Scorer (+300)
We know how effective Stefon Diggs is, and he has continued to be a monstrous presence this season, averaging 101.6 yards and one touchdown per game thus far. Kansas City shut Diggs down in their AFC Divisional Round matchup last year as they forced everyone else to beat them. Gabe Davis responded with the game of his life, but the Chiefs had the right strategy.
If the Chiefs again bracket Diggs and force Josh Allen to look elsewhere, rookie Khalil Shakir is a blossoming presence in this offense. The fifth-round pick played a career-high 70 percent of snaps in Week 5 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He produced 75 yards and a touchdown on only three receptions.
Shakir is a talented vertical player who fits the mold of a big-play threat who can play inside or out. Kansas City has allowed the seventh-most fantasy production to receivers, making it likely they allow big plays throughout this game as well. Shakir has the best payoff of any of the primary Bills receivers, so he gets our nod.
Gabriel Davis Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
There’s no question Davis is the biggest hit-or-miss starting receiver in the NFL right now. He’s wonderfully talented but not featured as often as the Bills could. It’s incredible he has 11 catches for 308 yards and three scores when he missed Week 2 and only had four catches for 50 yards in Weeks 3 and 4 combined.
The Chiefs were scorched for eight receptions, 201 yards, and four touchdowns by Davis last postseason. I doubt Davis rivals those numbers, but he must be a priority for Allen and this passing offense even though Dawson Knox is expected to be available.
MORE: NFL Week 6 Picks and Predictions — Locks, Upsets, and Scores
Just the threat of Davis going downfield can open rushing lanes for Allen or force a miscommunication in coverage that springs Diggs or Shakir open.
This is a surprisingly low number for this matchup. Davis is difficult to project, but we can have confidence he’ll either be a big hit or a decoy. 51.5 feels like a conservative hedge from oddsmakers and I am happy to take advantage of their strategy.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
There’s no question I’ve been one of Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s biggest advocates this season, but the reward has come in somewhat fluky waves and usage. But there’s also a level of trust between Patrick Mahomes and Edwards-Helaire that is required for his targets to occur. That trust is part of the reason why Isiah Pacheco or Jerick McKinnon haven’t taken CEH’s job.
This is not the week for Edwards-Helaire to find success outside of the red zone, though. The Bills have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards and boast an astounding 3.5 yards per carry allowed figure. It’s true the Chiefs ran all over a similarly-elite Tampa Bay defense, but the Bills have a better rush defense in EPA, so I’m trusting them more.
Edwards-Helaire has been under this 37.5 rushing yards mark twice in the last three weeks. Barring a major push to establish him over the rotation of backs and surprising success, he has little chance of going over against the Bills.
Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
One of the safest plays of all player prop bet options is to take Josh Allen’s over in rushing yards when it’s a big game. Allen can’t help himself but take off and create with his legs. His explosiveness and power while outside of the pocket make him a truly entertaining spectacle for fans and a panic-inducing presence for defenses.
Though Allen averages only 45 yards on the ground, look for him to be aggressive in tucking the ball whenever he can. He’s averaged almost 62 yards on the ground in six playoff games throughout his career. Look for him to take on the same mindset and be closer to the 60-figure than this 42.5 line.
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+150)
We have to have some action on Patrick Mahomes as well as Allen. It’s hard to be confident in passing props because oddsmakers are extremely sharp on those numbers. Instead, we’re combining value and expected game script.
It’d be surprising for Kansas City to be involved in a low-scoring game considering the potency of these offenses. The Chiefs are also atop the NFL in passing scores with 15 and have only four rushing scores on the season. If they score three touchdowns, chances are high each comes through the air.
Mahomes has thrown three or more touchdowns in five of his last nine games and has less than two in only one. Those trends don’t guarantee this prop hit, but it’s a worthwhile risk with this game being such a big matchup.