The Buffalo Bills will face the Denver Broncos on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bills skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Are you looking for advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Josh Allen, QB
The presumptive MVP set the NFL record for games with multiple passing touchdowns and a rushing score (six), and we could see such a game this week after getting last week off to rest.
For his career, Allen is averaging 27.8 fantasy points per playoff game, clearing 30 points in half of those contests. If you think he plays a friendly style of game during the regular season, just wait until his season is on the line — 56.3 rushing yards per playoff game with multiple passing touchdowns in each of his past four.
Excluding the one-snap effort from Sunday, Allen has been held without multiple passing touchdowns OR a rushing touchdown just once since Week 5 (Week 16 vs. Patriots). There’s no reason to think that the Allen takeover season ends this week, even against a tough defense (Lamar Jackson completed 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards and three scores when the Broncos came to town).
James Cook, RB
James Cook was one of the more valuable fantasy assets during the regular season (18 touchdowns), and while your instinct might be to fade him with the thought that Josh Allen will put on the cape now that we are in the postseason, I’d fight that thought.
There are six players since 2000 to record 18 carries and four catches in consecutive playoff games — Cook’s name is on that list (Curtis Martin, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Christian McCaffrey, and Isiah Pacheco being the others). The touch floor has been stable this season, and given this offense’s potency, his volume holds significant value.
With Ray Davis and Ty Johnson not posing much of a threat, the carries are safe, and we’ve seen the passing-game role stabilize (3+ targets in six of his past seven). The stingy nature of this Denver defense is a clear concern (tops in success rate against the run and third-best red-zone unit), but I expect that to very much be accounted for in terms of ownership.
The way the pricing is laid out, Bucky Irving will garner more attention in this range and Josh Allen’s managers will naturally gravitate away from this backfield. You’ve got my green light on Cook in all formats, and I’ll be even if not ahead of the market when it comes to ranking him for 2025.
Ray Davis, RB
Ray Davis exploded in one game as the lead back, but with James Cook healthy and the rookie seemingly hitting something of a wall, there’s not nearly enough meat on this bone to have my interest in any format.
Over the last four weeks, 30.3% of Davis’ carries have failed to gain yardage. For a player living in the 5-8 touch range weekly, a trend like that is more reason than I realistically need to look just about anywhere else. If I’m paying down this week, it’ll be at the WR or TE position — I’m not getting cute with a player like Davis against the NFL’s fourth-best run defense by EPA.
Amari Cooper, BUF
Amari Cooper was heavily used in the shootout loss to the Rams but has largely been underwhelming since coming to Upstate New York (37.1 receiving yards per game).
His 14.4-yard aDOT with the Bills creates a path to the upside against a stingy Broncos defense, but if Denver elects to stick Patrick Surtain II on him and make other receivers beat them, this could be another disappointing performance.
It was Tee Higgins, not Ja’Marr Chase, who led Cincinnati receivers in fantasy points against Denver. It was Tyler Lockett, not DK Metcalf. It was Chris Godwin, not Mike Evans.
I still have Cooper ranked the highest of the Buffalo WRs, but not by much — this is an interesting spot for Keon Coleman, and if Denver gives him single coverage, this could be another situation where the secondary receiver puts up primary production.
Keon Coleman, WR
The Broncos ranked second in the league in pressure rate this season and are the only team inside the top five to qualify for the postseason. Could that open the door for a Keon Coleman breakout? His target rate is the least impacted when Josh Allen is under duress among Bills receivers, and the Broncos have quietly allowed the eighth-highest completion percentage on deep balls since Week 11.
Bills pass catchers’ target splits with Allen, 2024:
- Coleman: 16.3% when pressured vs. 18.2% when not
- Khalil Shakir: 21.2% when pressured vs. 31.3% when not
- Amari Cooper: 12.8% when pressured vs. 29.3% when not
- Dalton Kincaid: 21% when pressured vs. 32.2% when not
I’m nothing if not a sharer of information, so while I’m not labeling Coleman as the next DK Metcalf, the profiles are similar.
Metcalf’s profile, 2024:
- Second-round pick standing 6’4” tall
- 18.8% regular season on-field target share (13.7 aDOT)
- TD on 7% of targets
Coleman’s profile, 2024:
- Second-round pick standing 6’4” tall
- 17.6% regular season on-field target share (15.5 aDOT)
- TD on 7% of targets
That’s at least interesting, isn’t it? Metcalf, like Coleman, had a mid-season explosion game with 120+ yards and a 50-yard reception while earning double-digit targets in the regular season finale.
Metcalf’s introduction to the postseason was a 7-160-1 showing in Philadelphia. Asking for that is a lot, but I like the way things line up for the 33rd-overall pick.
Khalil Shakir, WR
My initial thought with this matchup was that I’d be in on Khalil Shakir. The idea that he’d likely be able to avoid Patrick Surtain II while in the slot and that Denver’s second-ranked run defense (by EPA) could force Buffalo to supplement the traditional ground game with short, quick-hitting passes had me intrigued.
Upon further review, the call on the field has been overturned.
The Broncos are the best defense against the slot in terms of touchdown rate and rank third in opponent passer rating when throwing there. Now, they are only average when it comes to completion percentage and yards per attempt, so maybe there is a path for Shakir to pay off his price tag, but I don’t see much in the way of a ceiling for him.
You just read why I’m high on Keon Coleman as a value play this week, and I’m only willing to take on this Denver defense in so many ways. Shakir’s catch rate was what made him a special fantasy asset for the better part of 25 straight weeks, but the road has gotten a little bumpy of late.
- Weeks 1-9: 93.3% catch rate
- Weeks 10-17: 61.8% catch rate
If we can no longer take efficiency as a given, I’m not willing to do the mental gymnastics it takes to roster a player like Shakir in this specific matchup. That’s a shame because I think he’s a solid player who means a lot to a team that should win. Unfortunately, we have to make some tough calls in a six-game slate – leaving him out of my lineups is one of them.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
I’m bullish on the Bills from a trending standpoint, even in a matchup that finished the regular season atop our Defense+ metrics, and Dalton Kincaid is a part of that optimism.
- 2024: Targeted on 27.2% of routes
- 2023: Targeted on 19.8% of routes
Being on the field has been the problem, and that’s a real problem. Kincaid hasn’t played half the snaps in any of his three games back after missing a month, though the underlying metrics support the skill set, and I’m okay with betting on talent at this position more than others.
A fully functional version of Kincaid was on the field for 63.4% of snaps last season. To me, that potential is in play now that we are in a win-or-go-home setting, and Dawson Knox just doesn’t offer the same juice to an offense that needs to produce at a high level for this team to excel.
With Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta on bye this week, I wouldn’t look at you sideways if you projected Kincaid to lead the position in PPR points during the NFL’s second season, an upside that isn’t being priced into his playoff-long ADP right now.
Dawson Knox, TE
We are nearing the three-month anniversary since the last time Dawson Knox found paydirt, and Jan. 22 will mark two years since his last game with five receptions.
Knox is a nice veteran presence on a team that needs to be buttoned up if they are going to earn the first championship in franchise history. However, that doesn’t make him a viable fantasy option, no matter the format.
Knox’s participation rate:
- Week 14 at Rams: 81.5% snap share (29 routes)
- Week 15 at Lions: 73.5% snap share (26 routes)
- Week 16 vs. Patriots: 56.9% snap share (20 routes)
- Week 17 vs. Jets: 46.8% snap share (14 routes)
It’s never the wrong time to make the right call. Dalton Kincaid is the superior target earner, and Knox’s role is going the way of the dinosaur. There are punt options available across the board in any slate that are more worth your time.