The Buffalo Bills will face the New York Jets in Week 17. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bills skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Josh Allen, QB
I think we can give Josh Allen a pass for last week from an analysis standpoint. You, of course, can’t do that if his slow game against the Patriots knocked you out of the playoffs.
Yet, if you’re still playing a meaningful game this week, there should be exactly zero hesitation in going back to the MVP front-runner who was a top-two signal-caller in each of the three weeks prior to Week 16.
The Bills showed us that they knew how to beat the Jets back in Week 6 (Allen had a rushing score, but he also completed 15 of 18 non-pressured passes for 148 yards and a touchdown), and I see no reason to think they can’t have success in a similar fashion this time around.
Jets’ pressure rates, 2024:
- Weeks 1-13: 39.9%
- Weeks 14-16: 24.8%
Don’t overthink this.
James Cook, RB
James Cook has 42 red-zone touches this season compared to 35 last year — he’s scored 16 touchdowns this season compared to six last year. There’s a combination of good fortune and strong development at play in Cook’s breakout season, and that’s just fine.
Buffalo’s lead back has nine top-12 finishes this season and he very well could add to that total this week against the Jets team that the Bills had no trouble running the ball against in Week 6.
Cook was inactive for that game, but this backfield ran 24 times for 131 yards, with 13 of those carries picking up at least five yards.
This is a deep backfield and that could be an issue should the Chiefs lock up the top seed. If you’re playing Cook and Kansas City clinches, I wouldn’t automatically pivot, but I would tune in to the beat reporters a little more.
Ray Davis, RB
Ray Davis has failed to reach 30 yards from scrimmage in five of his past six games, and with Ty Johnson playing ahead of him on passing downs more recently his status as a one-for-one James Cook replacement is far from certain.
He’s a change-of-pace back, but if this offense is going to ask Josh Allen to wear the cape, there’s really no reason to roster any secondary back in Buffalo as they attempt to chase the conference’s top seed.
I think you can safely forget Davis’ name for the remainder of 2024, but I’d caution against doing so for 2025.
Amari Cooper, WR
Note to future self: proceed with caution when a very good team makes a trade deadline acquisition.
The Diontae Johnson situation in Baltimore has been an unmitigated disaster. While DeAndre Hopkins going to Kansas City has helped more than Mike Williams in Pittsburgh, I overestimated the impact they’d have across the board.
I think the process of the analysis (and the acquisitions, for that matter) was sound. These players either fit a need or a style of play and have proven capable of producing at this level. But I got over my skis — I apologize.
The cover boy for this is Amari Cooper, a receiver who was theoretically brought in to take this Bills offense to the next level. This is an answer for them moving on from Stefon Diggs this offseason. While it’s true that this offense has looked as good as any since the deal, it has just about as much to do with me as it does Cooper.
Not much.
A wrist injury resulted in some missed time, but in his seven games with the team, he’s reached 8.5 expected PPR points just once. I’d blame it on a learning curve if I could, but the Bills simply aren’t interested in him being featured. His 55.2% snap share on Sunday was his highest since joining the franchise.
Even when he is on the field, his impact is minimal. We all remember the viral clip of Keon Coleman telling him where to run his route while on the line of scrimmage, which resulted in a score in his debut. That was a fun clip, but it’s now a sad reminder of the last time Cooper saw a look in the end zone.
This offense has elevated without his help (one game with 70 air yards), and as they look to round into postseason form, why would we expect that to change in a significant way this week?
It’s possible that Buffalo (and all of these teams with talented receivers doing very little) will unleash a Cooper package in January and make a run through the conference. I’m not ruling it out, as everything I said in a positive light post-trade remains true. That could be huge for a #BillsMafia fan base that is starving for a winner, but in the scope of winning 2024 fantasy titles, I’d be surprised if Cooper was a factor at all.
Keon Coleman, WR
Keon Coleman has been on the field for over 60% of Buffalo’s snaps in both of his games back from the wrist injury, and I’d never count out a player with a role like that in a Josh Allen-led offense. That said, there’s a wide gap between “counting a player out” and “actively making excuses to start.”
The Jets own the third-best per-play defense in the NFL this season and are the best unit when it comes to preventing deep touchdown passes (1% of such attempts; league average: 6.7%).
Keep reading, and you’ll understand further why I think this is more of a Khalil Shakir week for the Bills than anything, but that’s certainly part of it. Coleman is a talented kid with a bright future, I just don’t think the future is now for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. The rookie has caught just two passes on four targets (43 routes) since returning, production rates that aren’t worthy of Flex consideration in even deeper formats this week.
Khalil Shakir, WR
The vibes aren’t high for Khalil Shakir’s managers, but I’d encourage you to hang in there. Buffalo as a whole was out of sorts last week against the Patriots (Shakir: two catches for 22 yards), but the volume was better than you’d expect from a 22-yard outing (six targets), and we have plenty of proof that this is an efficient tandem you can feel fine about betting on.
Is it weird that I was somewhat encouraged by the usage last week? Obviously, the production wasn’t there, but it’s clear that he is the receiver Josh Allen trusts the most, and that trust extends downfield (season-high 106 air yards).
I don’t think Shakir is going to assume a vertical role in this offense consistently, but it’s good to see that he has a path to earning a few of those targets.
We had to survive a Shakir dud back in Week 6 when these two teams first met (two catches for 19 yards on an 8.7% target share), and that was without Amari Cooper on the roster. With Allen playing 4D chess these days, it’s always possible that we get a repeat performance where he spreads the love (six Bills had more PPR points through the air than Shakir in that first contest), but I’m not too worried about it.
Those deep targets are nice, but Shakir is always going to make his money in the short to intermediate passing game, and I think the Bills have a good chance to win there with regularity this week. The Jets are the only team in the NFL yet to intercept a pass that didn’t travel 15+ yards in the air, and the 2024 version of Allen is responsible with the football.
I know last week was tough to watch and that we’ve had two of those games in December—fear not. I like our chances of returning to that 12-15 PPR point range with the upside for more should Buffalo’s offense rediscover its form from Weeks 13-14.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
The Bills got caught in a battle with the Patriots last week. You’d think that would mean an unleashing of Dalton Kincaid one week after he returned to action in a limited capacity.
No dice. The second-year tight end was on the field for just 32.8% of Buffalo’s snaps (Week 15 at DET: 47.1%), a usage pattern that has me more scared than his target rate (seven on 14 routes) has me encouraged as this season comes down the home stretch.
I don’t want to speak in absolutes, but I do think I’m going to be more interested in this profile than you. For next season. Kincaid was able to earn a 30.4% target share in Week 6 against the Jets, which is proof of concept when it comes to winning against this defense. But Buffalo could be out of the mix for the one seed by kickoff. With limited motivation, I’m not overly optimistic that they will extend his snap share to a point where I’m comfortable.
Kincaid is currently my TE15 this week, checking in behind names like Chig Okonkwo and Brenton Strange, two options you very much could have had (and might still be able to get) off of your waiver wire.
Dawson Knox, TE
Dawson Knox saw his last chance at value this fantasy season come and go without much more than a whimper in Week 15 as Dalton Kincaid (knee) returned to action.
He had a pair of chunk gains, something that seemingly everyone who played in the Bills/Lions shootout can claim. Outside of that, it was a lot of nothing and certainly not enough to give me any level of confidence that his fantasy stock can survive as Kincaid is worked back into his full-time role.
Over the past three weeks, with the Bills scoring 114 points and Kincaid either out or at less than full strength, Knox has turned 75 routes into 69 touchdown-less yards.
