The Buffalo Bills will face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bills skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Josh Allen, QB
Why is Josh Allen’s interception rate (1.5%) trending toward a career low? His quick pass rate sits at 67%, easily a career-high (2023: 58.4%). I find that to be an interesting approach in this matchup, specifically against a defense that blitzes at the third-lowest rate in the league.
Will Allen hold the ball longer and thus create splash-play opportunities? Will San Francisco sit in coverage and attempt to jump those quick hitters?
The nerd in me will be on full display when watching this game, but from a fantasy lineup setting scope, there’s nothing to act on. Allen has a rushing touchdown or multiple passing touchdowns in six straight contests, finishing as a top-10 signal-caller in five of those games. I don’t think this will be a peak Allen performance, but I find it highly unlikely that you lose your Week 13 matchup because you put your trust in the MVP front-runner.
James Cook, RB
James Cook has returned great profits on your investment this summer with six RB1 finishes this season, including in three of his past four games as he trends toward matchup-proof status.
Cook has remained plenty involved in the passing game (15 targets over his past three games), but there is no denying that his biggest growth from last season to this one is in his ability to find paydirt with eight more rushing scores this year on 100 fewer carries than 2023.
The spiking touchdown rate has fueled a 23.8% increase in PPR points per touch for Cook, and while Ray Davis has looked the part when given the opportunity, it’s clear that Buffalo is comfortable with a bell-cow situation.
The 49ers own a top-10 run defense in nearly every metric you should be interested in, and while that hurts the upside case for Cook this week, his volume and versatility keep him ranked as a must-start in all formats without much question.
Ray Davis, RB
Ray Davis is exactly the type of player I want this time of year — no temptation to play weekly but a top-20 upside if a role opens up
Since burying the New York Jets in Week 6 with James Cook sidelined, Davis hasn’t played more than 23% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in a single game. He’s the clear handcuff in this offense, and there is value in that if you have a good team that is positioning itself for a deep playoff run.
However, if your team is clawing for every win to qualify for the postseason, you might be forced to make a tough call on a player like Davis. There’s no path to stand-alone value as long as Cook is healthy; with that currently the case, cutting Davis is reasonable if you’re trying to maximize your Week 13 roster.
Amari Cooper, WR
A wrist injury has hampered Amari Cooper since being dealt to the Bills, and at this point, I need to see him produce in this offense before assuming it. Let the record show that I very much believe in his ability to do so and am not backing off of my hopes for him being a league winner at the right time.
Cooper has run 61 routes for Buffalo, and he’s turned them into just 10 targets and seven catches. We all remember Keon Coleman telling him where to run in his team debut and getting him into the end zone, but that’s been about it in terms of excitement.
If you have more guts than I do, plug Cooper in as your Flex and be on your way. I’m opting for a cautious approach, ranking him outside of my top 30, behind names like Xavier Worthy and Michael Pittman Jr.
Keon Coleman, WR
I worry that, at this point in the season, the idea of Keon Coleman is more valuable than the on-field product. The rookie has been battling a wrist injury for a month now, but even if he returns this week, what is the upside?
Coleman has earned more than five targets in just two games this season, and his role on the perimeter (just 5.2% of his routes have come in the slot) next to Amari Cooper isn’t how I expect Buffalo to attack San Francisco. Through 12 weeks, the 49ers surrendered just 6.1 yards per throw to the outside, the lowest rate in the NFL.
I’m not cutting ties with Coleman just for the sake of doing it, but as long as Cooper is healthy, I don’t think he’s a must-roster player.
Khalil Shakir, WR
If you want to see what a rich man’s version of Wan’Dale Robinson looks like, it’s Khalil Shakir. With stability under center, his route-running prowess has been rewarded with an on-field target share north of 24% in five straight games (at least six receptions in each of those contests).
He’s never going to offer massive per-target upside, but as the game’s most efficient receiver, there’s weekly value to lean into. You’d probably be surprised to know that Shakir has reeled in a 20-yard reception in seven of his past nine games, giving him access to a ceiling that other chain movers simply don’t have.
The 49ers cough up 8.2 yards per slot pass attempt this year, ranking them below the league average and giving me a reason to be ranking Shakir as a WR2 in PPR formats.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
A knee injury resulted in Dalton Kincaid missing the Week 11 win over the Chiefs, but with the bye week to rehab, the hope is that he will be on the field Sunday night.
Kincaid’s route tree has been opened up a bit this season (aDOT up 17.9% from his encouraging rookie season), but that has created a dip in efficiency that has submarined his value (one finish inside the top 10 this season).
- 2023: 80.2% catch rate
- 2024: 40.7% catch rate
Nick Bosa (hip/oblique) missed last week’s game against the Packers. If he were to sit out again, that would result in me shifting Kincaid up a few spots in my rankings. As it is, he’s a fringe TE1 more because of my faith in this offense than anything Kincaid has done to earn our trust (yet to clear 52 receiving yards in a game).
I’m penciling Kincaid into my lineups, though I am creating contingency plans should his knee not respond the way Buffalo hopes.
Dawson Knox, TE
Dawson Knox was on the field for 83.1% of Buffalo’s Week 11 snaps with Dalton Kincaid (knee) sidelined, a near 30-percentage point increase from where his rate stood prior.
Should Kincaid sit again, by all means, get exposure to Buffalo’s elite offense as you stream the position. But if the young tight end is back on the field and protecting for his standard role, there’s no utility in Knox (four straight games without a red-zone target and hasn’t cleared 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 15, 2022).