It was a heartbreaking end to the season for the Buffalo Bills. Despite not many pegging them as contenders after the departures of Stefon Diggs and veteran defenders, the team rallied around an MVP season by Josh Allen and made it to the AFC Championship Game as a No. 2 seed.
Once again, though, they ran into the Kansas City Chiefs and couldn’t get over the hump. Fortunately for Buffalo, PFSN analyst Ben Rolfe has a way of improving a Bills offense that lacked true star power in its surrounding cast.
Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen Predicted To Find Their WR1
Right before the Super Bowl in New Orleans, news broke from the San Francisco 49ers camp about Deebo Samuel as a trading option with the front office allowing the star receiver to take meetings with potential teams. Could the 49ers trade receiver Brandon Aiyuk instead?
For Rolfe, no potential team is as good a match as the Bills. For the “game-breaking”‘ receiver, pairing up with Allen would be one of the most enticing bold predictions to fantasize about this offseason.
“Since 2021, among the qualified receivers who are either entering or in the midst of their prime (for the sake of argument, let’s call the traditional ‘prime’ ages 25-28 at the position), there are three receivers in the league averaging at least 5.0 YAC and 14.0 yards per catch: Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk, and AJ Brown.”
With the second-best numbers out of that trio, it feels critical that Buffalo give it a shot. Despite the team having the fourth-best offense in the league by PFN’s Offense+ metric, they didn’t have many explosive plays downfield that allowed Allen to truly dominate like previous seasons.
He walked away with MVP honors for an efficient season as he carried the team to an easy AFC East championship, but there may be meat left on the bone of his production.
He finished third in the league according to PFN’s QB+ metric, but he had his fewest passing yards and touchdowns in the last five seasons. Even if the Bills want to maintain their relatively grounded attack, Aiyuk is the best-case option for them.
Not only does he fit the team’s mantra of YAC — the Bills finished with 49.9% of their total receiving yards gained after the catch — but he also allows Allen to revive his production downfield.
His completion percentage (40.2% vs. 45.8%), yards per attempt (10.9 vs. 11.8), and TD rate (3.3% vs. 5.6%) on deep balls were all substantially lower than his mark in the previous two seasons. In particular, Allen has completed just three of 17 deep attempts in his last two playoff defeats.
Having a premium threat in Aiyuk who can find holes in the defense as well as any other receiver in the league could unlock that hole without asking Buffalo to take on much risk.
Rolfe believes it’s a match made in heaven and looking at the data, it is hard to suggest otherwise.
