The Buffalo Bills were one of the best regular-season teams from start to finish. Buffalo clinched the AFC East back in Week 13, and were the only team to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes starting.
As a result, the Bills enter the AFC playoff bracket as the No. 2 seed — a Wild Card round matchup at home against the Denver Broncos looms. If Buffalo can hold serve at home, who could the Bills potentially see in the Divisional Round?
What Are the Buffalo Bills’ Playoff Scenarios?
As the No. 2 seed, there are three potential opponents for the Bills in the Divisional Round. The two teams they cannot face in the Divisional Round are the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs and the sixth-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers (and the Broncos obviously).
For all scenarios outlined in this article, the key point to remember is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. The lowest remaining seed visits the highest remaining seed, unlike the majority of playoff formats (such as the College Football Playoff) where subsequent matchups are fixed based on the pre-existing bracket.
Therefore, the Bills can’t host the Steelers next round because Pittsburgh would become the lowest-remaining seed if the Bills knock out the Broncos. They also won’t see the Chiefs yet because the Bills can’t be the lowest-seeded team remaining either.
All scenarios and probabilities outlined below are under the assumption that the Ravens have beaten the Steelers. If you want to calculate the likelihood of each scenario happening, PFN projects Buffalo with a 63.2% chance of defeating Denver.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Bills’ most likely opponent is the Baltimore Ravens. With the No. 3 seed favored to beat the Steelers at home (71.5%), the Bills and Ravens would be the two middle seeds remaining and face off in the Divisional Round.
With a win, there would be a 71.5% chance that the Bills host the Ravens in the Divisional Round. The next-most-likely outcome based on our win probabilities is a 16.0% chance of hosting the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Chargers, then a 12.5% chance of hosting the No. 4 seed Houston Texans.
As outlined above, the Bills would face the third-seeded Ravens if both win at home in the Wild Card round. At that point, the Chargers-Texans game would be irrelevant to Buffalo’s Divisional Round scenario.
If the Steelers pull off the road upset, Buffalo would face whoever wins the Chargers-Texans matchup. That’s because No. 6 seed Pittsburgh would be the lowest-remaining seed if the Bills knock out the Broncos, which would automatically send the Steelers to Kansas City for a matchup against the Chiefs.
No matter who the Bills face between the Ravens, Chargers, and Texans, Buffalo would be guaranteed to host a second playoff game at Highmark Stadium. Buffalo cannot go on the road until the AFC Championship Game.
Buffalo did not face the Chargers in the regular season, but they lost back-to-back weeks against the Ravens and Texans in Weeks 4 and 5 (albeit on the road in both cases). The Bills suffered a 35-10 defeat to Baltimore in Week 4, which was their third-largest loss in any game with Josh Allen as a starting QB (out of 120 games including playoffs).
The loss at Houston was a 23-20 defeat in overtime. Allen went just 9 of 30 (30%) passing, his lowest completion percentage in any game of his career. That was also the only game all season the Texans won against an opponent that finished above .500 (1-5 overall for Houston).
Could the Bills Host the AFC Championship Game?
Yes, but it will require some major help in the Divisional Round in the form of an Arrowhead Stadium upset.
As mentioned above, the Bills are guaranteed to host their first two playoff games (if they beat the Broncos on Sunday, of course). However, they can only host the AFC Championship Game if the Chiefs are upset in the Divisional Round. Otherwise, Buffalo would head to Kansas City for the fourth playoff matchup between the teams in the last five seasons.
The Chiefs will host one of the Texans, Chargers, Steelers, or Broncos in the Divisional Round (though obviously the Bills are out if Denver wins). In any of those cases, Kansas City will be a significant home favorite coming off a bye.
The No. 2 seed has hosted a Conference Championship six times in the last 15 seasons. The 2019 Chiefs and 2010 Steelers won, while the 2021 Chiefs, 2012 New England Patriots, 2011 San Francisco 49ers, and 2010 Chicago Bears all lost.