The Buffalo Bills’ season has been interesting, with a number of impressive wins but marred by a few disappointing performances. Despite their three losses, they have clinched the AFC East and remain in the race for the AFC No. 1 seed entering Week 16.
However, they have put themselves into somewhat of a back-to-the-wall situation where they cannot really afford any further losses if they want a first-round bye.
Let’s look at the Bills’ current playoff picture and what Saturday’s games involving the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers mean for their chances of claiming the No. 1 seed.
What is the Buffalo Bills Current Playoff Picture?
The Bills are currently the second seed in the AFC with a 12-3 record. The Steelers have been eliminated from the race for the No. 1 seed, so it’s down to just the Bills and 14-1 Chiefs.
With two games to play, the Bills still have a chance of claiming the number one seed, but they are still two games back from the Chiefs. Fortunately for the Bills, they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City.
The Bills’ playoff picture became clearer after the Chiefs beat the Houston Texans in the first of the two Saturday games. They need to win out and hope the Chiefs lose both of their remaining games.
If neither happens, they don’t get the No. 1 seed.
How Did the Chiefs’ Win Impact the Bills’ No. 1 Seed Chances?
First and foremost, with the Chiefs defeating the Texans, the Bills do not need to worry about the Steelers in terms of the No. 1 seed. The Steelers are now eliminated from contention for the No. 1 seed. The Bills still have to worry about them in terms of the No.2 seed, but the Steelers are not a factor in terms of the No. 1 seed in the AFC anymore.
After the Chiefs beat the Texans, the Bills’ margin for error is completely gone. The Chiefs are at 14 wins, meaning the 12-win Bills must win their remaining two games. Failing to win any of their remaining two games would hand the Chiefs a Wild Card Weekend bye and a path to homefield advantage in the AFC Championship Game.
The Bills need the Chiefs to lose to both the Steelers on Christmas Day and the Denver Broncos in Week 18. Given that the Steelers and Broncos might only be playing for seeding in those two games, that will be a concern for the Bills in terms of both teams considering whether to rest players.
If the Chiefs beat the Steelers on Christmas Day, the Bills will be eliminated from No. 1 contention four days before they play in Week 17. That would leave the Bills in a weird situation in Weeks 17 and 18, where they are playing for the “minor” seeding only. Getting the No. 2 seed is not as important as it was when there were two teams on a bye, but securing the potential for a home game in the Divisional Round is a nice consolation.
If the Chiefs do lose to the Steelers, then the door is open for the Bills. If they can win against the New York Jets in Week 17, Buffalo will go into Week 18 with a chance at pinching the No. 1 seed from the Chiefs. If the Bills win in Week 18 and the Chiefs lose, the Bills would take the top seed in a two-way tiebreaker at 14-3.
The reason for that is the Bills’ Week 11 win over the Chiefs. With the first NFL playoff tiebreaker being head-to-head results, the Bills have a crucial tiebreaker that they cannot lose in a two-way tie between them and the Chiefs.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
AFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (9-7)
In The Hunt
9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
11. New York Jets (4-12)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
15. New England Patriots (3-13)
16. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
