The Buffalo Bills will face the New England Patriots in Week 18. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bills and Patriots skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Buffalo Bills Week 18 Start-Sit Advice
Josh Allen, QB
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Allen is active for today's game, but only for the purposes of taking the first snap to keep his consecutive starts streak alive. Mitch Trubisky will be the QB1 today.
All reports out of Buffalo are that Josh Allen will start, but every report trails off after that. He’s going to play, and maybe that’s enough given how quickly he puts fantasy points on the board, but consider me skeptical that he plays in the second half.
Heck, I’m not sure the second quarter is a safe bet.
Allen struggled against the Patriots two weeks ago (154 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception), but this isn’t a matchup that scares me in the least. My low ranking of him is simply a bet on a lack of opportunity. Their insistence to play him also rules out getting meaningful production from Mitch Trubisky and makes projecting these pass catchers closer to calculus than arithmetic.
Mitchell Trubisky, QB
Mitchell Trubisky is a decent fill-in fantasy guy, at least in terms of the wild wackiness of Week 18, but he’s likely to cede a few snaps or a series to Josh Allen on the front end so Allen can keep his NFL active consecutive starts streak going.
On top of that, the Bills are essentially using this as a preseason game, meaning Trubisky should get a good look from that point, but he may also need to yield a quarter of play or thereabouts to Mike White on the back end of the game.
The Bills have the capability of running up points no matter who is out there, especially when you consider their opponent might not mind getting the No. 1 overall pick in April.
Just know that comparable options such as Joshua Dobbs or Aidan O’Connell might get a full game this week, while Trubisky will be some degree short.
James Cook, RB
James Cook entered 2024 with four rushing touchdowns — he now has three separate three-game stretches this season in which he’s run for four scores. Cook has been nothing short of great this season, and it would seem that he’s mastered the art of running next to Josh Allen.
Through 17 weeks this season, his yards per carry before first contact is up 20.7% from a season ago, a sign that he is making strong reads. Cook dominated the Patriots in Week 16 (126 yards and two scores on 14 touches), and I’d be thrilled about his prospects to repeat this week if I was sold that he’d be used in typical fashion, but I’m not.
The Bills have nothing to play for, and given this franchise’s history, I suspect that they will take no risks when it comes to the health of their primary players heading into the postseason.
Ray Davis, RB
James Cook has had a tremendous season, and that is why Ray Davis is a viable option this week, one in which I expect Cook to be significantly limited if not sat down altogether.
Davis hasn’t shown much of late (18 carries for 36 yards over his past four games), but he’s caught 15 of 16 targets this season and has a physical approach that could be counted on heavily if/when the regulars take a seat.
Ty Johnson has been more of a factor lately and will be involved, but he’s averaging just 1.7 carries per target this season. If this turns into a full-game committee with Davis on the plus side, I could see him returning viable RB2 production in what might be an ugly game in terms of fantasy production.
Keon Coleman, WR
Watch the Keon Coleman touchdown from last week and tell me this doesn’t look like a future playmaker in this league:
Keon Coleman put DJ Reed into a blender on this play #BillsMafia | #GoBills
pic.twitter.com/lcfNL4pT6I— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) December 30, 2024
It was a reckless Josh Allen play, but there’s a reason he has the confidence to throw a pass like that to a rookie. There was a foreshadowing of a play like this coming, as Coleman had a chunk play come off the board on Buffalo’s first drive due to offensive holding. A fade was also drawn up for him on the Bills’ first goal-to-go snap of Week 17, further proof that he is ascending up their priority list when it comes to opportunity count.
Coleman has cleared 65 air yards in three straight games (and in five of his past six), filling a pretty clear role in this offense. I think it’s likely that, in terms of playing time, Buffalo treats this like a preseason game, and that leads me to doubt that we get enough usage to roll the dice on Coleman.
I want exposure to him long-term, and that long-term might well start in the first game this postseason, but not this week.
Khalil Shakir, WR
If the Bills are going to focus on one thing this week, I’d think they prioritize getting Khalil Shakir’s efficiency back on track:
- Week 1-9: 93.3% catch rate
- Week 10-17: 61.8% catch rate
Their slot machine is going to be critical if Buffalo is going to make noise this postseason, making it very possible that Shakir will see a few looks early with the first unit.
That said, the featured role that makes him so valuable to the Bills is enough to make me think that his reps are managed in a significant way this weekend, and that has me looking elsewhere (I’d rather take a slot receiver like Adam Thielen this week that is playing in an offense trying to develop their QB as opposed to managing their top option for the playoffs).
Dalton Kincaid, TE
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Kincaid is active for today's game.
People who play postseason DFS or draft for playoff-long leagues need to be fully aware that Dalton Kincaid’s stock is in the “buy” zone.
The counting numbers have yet to look like last season, but everything underneath the hood looks good to my eye. His target rate is trending toward surpassing last season’s mark, making this an awfully cheap way to bet on the presumptive MVP.
Kincaid is lining up to be a nice post-hype selection next season – that is, if he doesn’t go on a big run through the postseason. In the scope of Week 18, I’m not investing in any Bills player for a game that has no impact on their seeding.
Dawson Knox, TE | BUF (at NE)
Dawson Knox hasn’t reached 60 receiving yards since Dalton Kincaid was drafted, and with the second-year tight end back to earning targets, there’s really no need for this team to feature their backup option in any sort of meaningful way.
He’s averaging 14.1 yards per catch this season, and the occasional big play could prove critical as Buffalo chases their first NFL championship – just because he means something to this team doesn’t mean he holds value in this game of ours.
New England Patriots Week 18 Start-Sit Advice
Drake Maye, QB
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Maye is active for today's game.
With 124 passing yards on Sunday, Drake Maye will become the seventh QB in NFL history with 2,400 passing yards and 420 rushing yards in his first season, joining Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams as members of the 2024 class to appear on that list.
Consistency has been an issue, but that’s common as college kids adjust to the pro game. The fact of the matter is that we’ve seen enough to be optimistic long-term.
Maye jumps up the Week 18 rankings because New England is only worried about developing him, and thus he’s a good bet to play 60 minutes. He looked just fine two weeks ago in this matchup (261 passing yards, two passing scores, and three rushing yards), and that exact line projects as more valuable now than in Week 16.
Maye is a low-end QB1 for me this week in what could be a glimpse into the future. The can’t-teach tools are there — once this roster catches up, a fantasy explosion feels more inevitable than it does wish casting.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
Rumors swirled pre-game that the Patriots were going to send a message about ball security and bench Rhamondre Stevenson for the Week 17 game with the Chargers.
He then got the first carry of the game and didn’t fumble.
He then accounted for one of the final 19 Patriots rush attempts.
So, no, he technically wasn’t “benched” off the hop, but he was certainly phased out, and this could turn into a difficult situation. Stevenson still has four years left on his deal (two until the team has so much as an out), but we have little proof that he is in good standing or a good fit for this Drake Maye offense — the once versatile threat has failed to catch more than a single pass in three straight (and four of his past five) games.
He lost a fumble in this matchup back in Week 16, but he also ran hard (60 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries). Was last week the sending of a message or a sign of things to come?
The fact that failing to reach 10 touches feels more likely than clearing 15 is reason enough for me to consider just about any reasonable piece on a team fighting for something as a more favorable Flex play than this downward-trending Patriot.
DeMario Douglas, WR
DeMario Douglas made the type of play last week that you love to see for so many reasons. Drake Maye identified the defense as being offsides, quick-snapped, and took full advantage of a free play in launching a pass down the middle of the field.
Douglas adjusted mid-flight, clearly expecting the ball after also seeing the defense jump, and made a diving 36-yard touchdown catch. The play, the read, and the connection.
Chef’s kiss.
Only time will tell if Douglas establishes himself as Khalil Shakir to Maye’s Josh Allen, but single moments like that are certainly encouraging. That said, that reception accounted for 78.3% of Douglas’ receiving yards for the day, continuing a trend that has seen him held under 65 receiving yards for 10 straight games. We are talking about a slot receiver with just one top-25 finish this season.
Douglas is a long way away from being a lineup lock, but I think he’s an interesting PPR add in the later rounds next season as a bet on the trajectory of this offense. He’s a WR4 for me this week and not one that I’m seeking to play just yet.
Kayshon Boutte, WR
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Boutte is active for today's game
Kayshon Boutte burned the Bills for 95 yards and a score two weeks – it’s easy to fall into the recency bias bucket and project the second-year receiver for a strong Week 18 stat line, understanding that he was able to produce against Buffalo’s starters and will likely be facing a lesser version of their secondary for the majority of Sunday.
I’d be careful. Before that explosion, he didn’t have a 60-yard game on his résumé. He’s been able to make some chunk plays this season, and that’s good to see when it comes to looking long-term, but the structure of Buffalo’s defense (no matter who is on the field) is to prevent those outcomes.
Boutte has a limited target ceiling, but at the very least, we have a handful of targets in four straight games to hang our hat on. I think this New England offense is an interesting one to roll out there in a DFS setting, as they are motivated to experiment with Drake Maye, but for season long, I’d rather take a safer role with a higher production floor.
Hunter Henry, TE
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Henry is inactive for today's game
When these two teams met in Week 16, Hunter Henry led the Patriots with eight targets, turning them into a very usable 39-yard, one-touchdown performance. Much like what the Saints are doing these days to mask their deficiencies, New England went tight-end-heavy in that game (Austin Hooper added four grabs for 55 yards).
I’m not sure why we’d expect anything different this week. Yes, Henry was shut out last week against the Chargers and you know you’re taking on a low floor whenever you bet on a rookie signal caller. But with 15 catches on 84 routes over his three games before Week 17, Henry profiles as a viable option.
He’s hovering around TE15 this week in my rankings – he’s a fine punt play and could be the lone valuable piece in a game that otherwise means nothing.