The 2023 NFL regular season ends on an extremely high note, as we have a prime-time matchup to determine the winner of the AFC East between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins have led the AFC East all season long, yet they need to defeat a Bills team that dominated them in a 48-20 Week 4 loss to win their first division title since 2008. Let’s see who our betting experts are siding with in tonight’s game in our Bills vs. Dolphins predictions and best bets.
Bills vs. Dolphins Betting Lines
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- Spread
Bills -3 - Moneyline
Bills -165, Dolphins +140 - Total
48.5
Bills vs. Dolphins Predictions and Expert Picks
Rolfe: I desperately wanted the Dolphins to be favored here so I could take the Bills and not look back. Unfortunately, it is Buffalo who is favored, which makes it a little tougher to call.
It would not be unfair to say that the Dolphins are a bit of a paper tiger based on their record of only beating one team with a winning record this year. Adding to that is the fact the only win against a winning team came at home. The Dolphins are 7-1 straight up at home and 6-2 against the spread in Hard Rock Stadium.
This will be the first time the Dolphins have been home underdogs, but the fifth time they have been underdogs in totality. In those games as underdogs, Miami is 1-4, losing three of those games by double digits, including one to Buffalo in Highmark Stadium.
The Bills have not had it all their own way this season, but I do see them as the better team right now. I just do not want to lay the points. Therefore, my view on this game is to shift the line to Dolphins +7.5 to get it over a touchdown bring the total down to 42.5 and take the over.
Pick: Dolphins +7.5 and over 42.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)
Bearman: Last week’s blowout loss to the Ravens was definitely not how I saw that game unfolding for the Dolphins, but I guess I should be surprised after watching this team for 40 years.
The narrative has been “Don’t let the season come down to Buffalo in Week 18,” and here it is. I still think Miami gets it done at home, but with injuries across the board, it’s not a strong play.
Instead, I’m going to isolate the fact that Miami and Buffalo have many missing pieces on defense and won’t be stopping each other. The first matchup was 48-20 — that’s a lot more than 48.5 points.
Pick: Over 48.5 (-105 at ESPN BET)
Blewis: The 2023 Miami Dolphins are the 2022 New York Mets — have a division lead for close to 99% of the season only to see it slip away at the very end. That’s the scenario I’m envisioning here, as this Dolphins team is extremely banged up at the worst possible time.
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If you like the Bills here, then you should feel confident in taking them giving points, considering only two of their 10 wins this season have been by a field goal or less.
Pick: Bills -2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The odds have this prop labeled as little more than a coin flip — not too shabby for a QB who is 11 for 11 when it comes to clearing 1.5 TD passes against the Dolphins.
He’s perfect.
I understand the skepticism, but this spot is favorable and not just because of his past success. The Dolphins own the fourth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, and in the first meeting this season, the Bills averaged just 3.6 yards per carry as a team. If they’re going to be in scoring range and likely inefficient on the ground, I’ll take my chances.
This portion of the SGP was on my mind as it became clear that this game was going to decide the AFC East — and then Week 17 happened. Miami will be without Xavien Howard and Bradley Chubb this week — two impactful injuries that could undo everything that the Dolphins have built up to this point. Through 17 weeks:
- Second in pressure rate
- 28th in blitz rate
Without Chubb, the ‘Fins could elect to blitz more in an effort to replicate that pressure rate, thus putting more pressure on their corners. Without Howard, the integrity of their secondary is in question, and if my projection of a few more blitzes is accurate, we could be looking at favorable single-coverage situations.
Pick: Josh Allen over 1.5 TD passes (-115 at DraftKings)
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