The best game today, at least before Sunday night, is the Buffalo Bills taking on the Kansas City Chiefs in the late afternoon. If the recent history between the two teams means anything, then this Bills vs. Chiefs December matchup should be another classic.
We have seen many epic battles between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in the past, but how should you approach their player prop bets as well as for star players such as Stefon Diggs and Travis Kelce in a pivotal matchup for both teams? Let’s take a look at our top Bills vs. Chiefs player prop bets.
Top Bills vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185 at FanDuel)
Blewis: Josh Allen has had at least one rushing touchdown in eight of 12 games this season, including five of his last six, so it’s surprising to see this much value on him getting into the end zone.
MORE: NFL Week 14 ATS Standings
The Bills are in desperation mode and need to win by any means necessary to keep their playoff hopes alive. In recent weeks, Allen has been very efficient with his legs, especially in the red zone.
For the season, Allen leads all Bills players in rushing attempts inside the red zone with 19. Considering we’re getting close to 2-1 odds here, I really like this bet in a must-win game.
Stefon Diggs Under 6.5 Receptions (-118 at FanDuel)
Katz: Since joining the Buffalo Bills, Stefon Diggs has played six games against the Chiefs, including the playoffs. He’s had more than six receptions in just one of them.
While what happened in 2020 and 2021 doesn’t really matter because the teams are different, it is telling that the Chiefs made it a point to shut Diggs down as best as they could, as those defenses were far worse than the one they are sending out there this season.
The 2023 Chiefs defense is easily the best they’ve had during Patrick Mahomes’ tenure. They have been erasing opposing WR1s and specifically dominating outside receivers. The Bills may try and force Diggs the ball, but I don’t think it will work.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 69.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: There’s definitely an air of uncertainty regarding how the Chiefs will handle their backfield. This line seems to not be accounting for that, as it has firmly decided Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the clear top RB.
Color me skeptical that a guy who lost his job to a seventh-round rookie last year and was inactive in the Super Bowl is suddenly going to not only see enough work to reach 70 total yards, but also be efficient enough to get there.
Dalton Kincaid Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-125 at ESPN BET)
Blewis: Dawson Knox is expected to make his return from injury today, and when he was in the lineup, Dalton Kincaid played far fewer snaps than he has in the five weeks without him. Although they can use Kincaid in a variety of ways, the Bills have only run the 24th-highest percentage of two-tight-end sets on first down this season.
With an average depth of target of just 4.7 yards (36/39 tight ends with at least 25 targets), Kincaid will have to see a lot of targets for him to go over this number, which I’m not sure will happen.
Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 Completions (-130 at FanDuel)
Blewis: Patrick Mahomes has only gone over this number in half of his games this season, but without Isaiah Pacheco, I think the Chiefs are going to be forced into a very pass-heavy script.
MORE: NFL Team Over/Under Standings Week 14
Even with their RB1 in the lineup, the Chiefs have the second-highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the NFL. We have seen enough of Clyde Edwards-Helaire to know he can’t be trusted in a major role, and if Andy Reid wants any chance of winning this game, they’ll scheme up easy completions in the passing game.
I also expect this to be a back-and-forth battle, which certainly correlates with the Over on Mahomes’ completions.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-118 at ESPN BET)
Blewis: Travis Kelce seems due to score a touchdown, as he has gotten in the end zone just once since October. Rashee Rice has cut into his red-zone target share quite a bit, but Kelce is still a major threat to score a touchdown every week.
The Bills have defended tight ends well this season, but the best player they have faced at the position has been Evan Engram, as Dallas Goedert was out for their matchup a couple of weeks ago against the Eagles.
ESPN BET is offering far greater value on Kelce’s anytime touchdown scorer odds compared to DraftKings (-130) and FanDuel (-135).
Rashee Rice Over 5.5 Receptions (+105 at DraftKings)
Soppe: The Bills have plenty of defensive flaws, and opponents have been exploiting them via the short pass (lowest opponent aDOT this season). That, friends, is gold against a developing WR1 in Rice who leads all qualified receivers in yards after the catch per reception this season.
His playing time is gradually inching up, and with an 80% catch rate this season, each target carries with it high catch equity.
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