Football is the best. But playoff football? There’s really nothing better in all of sports (if you ask me — which, obviously, you are). In the same vein, betting on football is my favorite sport to bet on … and betting on playoff football is my absolute favorite time of year. Why, you ask? Chalk.
Remember — for lines above -150, we generally don’t take these straight up (odds are too high), but we like to mix these into two or three-leg parlays. Also, in the same light, it’s worth noting that if you like several of these lines, it could be worth teasing them down a bit before combining them if you’re building a parlay.
Our Favorite Player Props and Game Lines: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
As the playoffs progress, only the strong survive. Right now, we have four teams entering the Conference Championship Round that have yet to turn the ball over in the playoffs. We know who the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, and Kansas City Chiefs are at this point, and we know where to look for production on all four teams.
As the pressure continues to rise each week over the playoff run, teams will lean on their stars to carry them to their full potential and leave nothing in the tank. With less variability in play calling and a general tendency for closer games — when it comes to playoff football, teams lean most heavily on their best weapons, which keeps my betting strategy nice and simple, focusing on the studs.
Bills at Chiefs, Chiefs ML (-125)
There is the old adage, that if you want the crown, you have to take it from the king. Well, that’s what the Bills are facing, as they have numerous times in the past.
Sure, they have been able to beat the Chiefs in the regular season, but not in the playoffs where King Patrick Mahomes shines. The Chiefs are the champs until they are not and have made a living out of knowing how to win.
The season finale in New England aside, the Bills lost at the Houston Texans, at the Baltimore Ravens, and at the Los Angeles Rams, three playoff teams. While they have a solid defense, they have been doing it with their offense, scoring 30+ points 12 times in the regular season and 31 and 27 in the postseason.
The game’s fourth-best offense (according to PFN’s Offense+ metric) now faces a Chiefs defense that held opponents to 19.2 points per game, fourth-best in the league. On top of this, all four of the Bills’ losses this season have come on the road, and they are going into one of the toughest environments there is in the NFL.
Listen, the Bills are right there; maybe this is their time. They have looked better than the Chiefs all season, including when they played in November. The last two playoff matchups were final-possession games, which we will likely see again on Sunday, Jan. 26.
But that’s again where the Chiefs shine, going 11-0 in one-possession games this season and winning 16 straight one-possession games. I expect it to be close and tight, and when that happens, K.C. usually wins.
Travis Kelce, 70+ Receiving Yards (-118)
Is Playoff Trav one of the best nicknames ever?
Being known for balling out in the biggest moments is pretty freaking cool — especially when you’re on a historic heater in the playoffs.
Travis Kelce has been heard stating multiple times, in multiple ways and multiple places — everywhere really — that he lives for these moments. Heck, when you’re 35 and you’ve achieved what he has already in his career, it’s understandable that he might keep a bit in the tank during the regular season especially when you know you’re going to the playoffs every season.
You all know the stats. He now has 70+ yards in 14 straight playoff games. I’m here for the streak, and I’m here for Kelce keeping it alive. I think the Bills are going to get a very large dose of Playoff Trav this week.
Kareem Hunt, Anytime TD (+175)
It’s pretty evident that Isiah Pacheco is not fully healthy. When he initially returned from injured reserve, the Chiefs quickly tried to push him back into the clear RB1 role. It didn’t take. Since then, he’s slowly been ceding more and more work to Kareem Hunt.
Over their past four games, Hunt has matched Pacheco’s snap share once and out-snapped him three times. Hunt has also scored in three straight games; meanwhile, Pacheco has yet to find the end zone since returning.
The Bills remain more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. While the Chiefs are obviously not about to rely on Hunt over Mahomes, they have shown a willingness to give the ball to Hunt on the goal line, especially ahead of Pacheco.
The Chiefs will score points in this one. If there is a rushing touchdown, it’s more likely to be Hunt than Pacheco. I will gladly take Hunt to score at +175.
Josh Allen, Anytime TD (-120)
This season, Allen’s percentage of carries coming in the red zone is up from 29% to 32.5%, something that may seem minor, but that’s translated into 12 rushing touchdowns this season — including one against the Chiefs back in Week 11.
In the Divisional Round, Allen went beast-mode against the Ravens, rushing for two touchdowns, both from the red zone. When it comes to minimizing turnover risk in the biggest situations, Allen is one of the safest bets outside of the Tush Push in Philadelphia, and I like him to try to make a statement against his rival in Mahomes.
James Cook, Most Rushing Yards (+110)
I really like this one.
Starting with the Chiefs RBs: the Bills boast the third-best run defense in terms of EPA and the Chiefs own four of the top-10 pass-rate-over-expectation marks since 2021.
This season, only teams with a truly elite running back have reached 130 RB rushing yards vs. Buffalo this season (Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, and Miami Dolphins). If we are splitting that small pie in half, what’s the ceiling for whoever you think leads K.C. in rushing yards?
On to the Bills: Let’s make this simple. Cook has averaged 20 rushes per game in the playoffs, and outside of Allen, has no real competition for touches.
The opening prop markets had Cook projected for eight more rushing yards than Allen and 21 more than any member of the Chiefs — I don’t mind going over his posted number, but I like getting the plus money this way for the player I think is most likely to rip off a chunk gain.
Patrick Mahomes, Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Recently, Mahomes has received some criticism from the football world for his trickiness when running the ball. Whether he is baiting defenders into thinking he’s going down and then continuing to run or sneaking an extra yard or two while creeping down the sidelines, Mahomes has shown he’s not afraid to run the rock, and he’s smart about how he does it.
However, this line is simply too high. I actually went looking to take his over in this category, thinking it would be around 12-14 yards, and I was shocked to see it this high. In his last 11 games, Mahomes has crossed this mark just twice, and on the season, he’s only done so four times. Last week, he ran the ball seven times against the Texans for just 14 yards. Fourteen big yards, maybe, but that’s well below the line at 25.5.
Note: All lines are from DraftKings and are taken at the time the article was published. Odds are subject to change after the article is published.
