Bijan Robinson is still starting in the backfield for the Atlanta Falcons. But the way Tyler Allgeier is getting the ball near the goal line this season, it may be time to give serious thought to starting Allgeier over Robinson on your fantasy football team. Here’s the Week 10 outlook for each player.
Should You Start Bijan Robinson or Tyler Allgeier This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Robinson is the player to start. His projected 12.1 points include 68 rushing yards, two receptions, and 11 receiving yards. That projected stat line outperforms the consensus projections for Allgeier (7.8 points).
MORE: Fantasy Week 10 RB Start/Sit
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Allgeier outperforming Robinson this week, the biggest reason being Allgeier is getting more opportunities to score in the red zone than Robinson this season.
Fantasy Outlook for Robinson This Week
Robinson remains the starter for the Falcons, and he is still seeing plenty of time on the field. With the exception of his Week 7 game against the Buccaneers, when he was forced to leave after three carries due to headaches, Robinson has been on the field for at least 60% of the Falcons offensive snaps in every other game this season.
So why isn’t he getting more touches when it counts?
For the season, Robinson has 103 rush attempts for a team-leading 517 rush yards. He is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, an impressive number for any running back, but more so when you’re a rookie.
However, those 103 rush attempts have yielded just one rushing touchdown, and that didn’t come until two weeks ago. A deeper look into the breakdown of Robinson’s carries may provide a reason why.
Of his 103 rush attempts, only nine have come in the red zone, with only two of those nine coming in goal-to-go situations. At 215 pounds, it would stand to reason that a person of that size and skill would get more chances at the goal line.
So, until these numbers start resulting in some touchdowns — or at least some opportunities for more touchdowns — I will go with another Falcons back, at least for one week.
Fantasy Outlook for Allgeier This Week
Allgeier is still a backup for the Falcons. That hasn’t changed since the start of the season.
And yet Allgeier leads the team in rush attempts (116), not Robinson.
Allgeier is tied for the team lead with QB Desmond Ridder in rushing touchdowns (3), not Robinson.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
Now, this isn’t a suggestion that Allgeier is the better of the two backs. The numbers say quite the contrary, actually. Allgeier hasn’t rushed for 60 yards in a game since the season opener vs. the Panthers (75 yards), and he is averaging nearly two fewer yards per carry (3.2) than Robinson.
But what Allgeier does have over Robinson is the ball near the goal line.
While Robinson has just nine red-zone attempts and two carries in goal-to-go situations, Allgeier has 25 rush attempts in the red zone and 10 attempts in goal-to-go situations.
Much as I am a fan of Robinson, for one week anyway, I’m going to take a chance and project Allgeier to finish with more fantasy points than Robinson.
The PFN Start/Sit Optimizer projects Allgeier to finish with 48 rush yards, with one catch for eight yards.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!