Fantasy football managers love the allure of the unknown. Every year, we, as a community, typically overvalue rookies, but sometimes, the hype is warranted. Is that the case with Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson? Will he be an immediate fantasy football star this season?
Is Bijan Robinson an Immediate Fantasy Star?
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. With an ADP of RB3, the fantasy community certainly thinks so. If you look hard enough, you will find people endorsing Robinson as the No. 1 overall pick. While I certainly wouldn’t go that far, I don’t think an overall RB1 finish is that ridiculous.
Robinson has been a household name for over two years already. If he was eligible for the 2022 NFL Draft, he likely would’ve been a first-round pick there, too.
We can debate the merits of taking a running back in the first round or the early part of it all we want. I’m firmly in the running backs don’t matter camp, but for fantasy, an RB going as high as Robinson matters.
Robinson is a true generational talent. He’s the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley and one of the best RB prospects of all time. He’s the perfect size for a lead back at 5’11”, 215 pounds, with 4.46 speed. In his final season at Texas, Robinson ran for 1,580 yards and 20 touchdowns.
Of course, talent isn’t everything at the RB position. For Robinson to smash right out of the gate and prove worthy of his lofty ADP, he needs the right situation. And while I wouldn’t call Atlanta the perfect spot, it’s pretty close.
Last season, the Falcons ran the ball 56% of the time in neutral game script. Even more jarring, they ran the ball 51% of the time during negative game script. When trailing by 7+ points, all but four teams threw the ball at least 60% of the time. The Falcons continued to run the ball.
Tyler Allgeier does still exist, and he was efficient last season. But Atlanta didn’t spend the No. 8 pick on a running back to have him lose touches to a fifth-rounder.
If there is a concern with Robinson’s usage, it will be as a receiver. We’ve all seen offseason reports of running backs running routes and lining up in the slot. Not once has it ever materialized into a back actually being used as a receiver.
The Falcons threw to running backs just 16.6% of the time last year, which was the eighth-lowest rate in the league. Desmond Ridder won’t run as much as Marcus Mariota, so we may see an increase there, but Robinson is not going to suddenly see a 15% target share.
For Robinson to finish as the overall RB1, he’ll need to overperform either as a receiver or in the touchdown department. Historically, those are the two paths a running back has to 20+ points per game.
Even so, Robinson doesn’t need to be the greatest rookie running back of all time to justify his ADP. He just needs to be top five at the position. That seems like it’s asking a lot from a rookie, but is it?
Can Fantasy Managers Trust a Rookie RB in the First Round?
Not all first-round running backs are created equal. The sample size isn’t large, but when a rookie RB has a first-round ADP in fantasy football, he typically smashes.
In 2021, Najee Harris averaged 17.6 ppg, finishing as the RB6. In 2020, Clyde Edwards-Helaire averaged 13.5 ppg (RB20). In my research, CEH was the lone bust of the group. In 2018, Saquon Barkley averaged 24.0 ppg (RB3), while Ezekiel Elliott averaged 21.7 ppg (RB3) in 2016.
The issue with CEH among this group is he just wasn’t particularly talented. He’s a sub-replacement-level player. As long as Robinson is merely above average, as Harris was in 2021, he should be able to return RB1 value. By all accounts, Robinson is an elite talent. When you combine situation, opportunity, and talent, you get greatness.
In my projections, I have Robinson carrying the ball 297 times for 1,431 yards and 13.6 touchdowns, plus catching 41 passes for 326 yards and 2.8 touchdowns. That comes out to 18.3 ppg and an RB3 finish, right in line with where I have him ranked and his ADP.
What makes Robinson such a smash for me this season is that I really think there’s room for him to be even better. My projections give him just an 11% target share on an offense that only attempts 506 passes, which would be bottom five in attempts.
What if the Falcons throw more? What if Robinson sees a higher target share? What if he scores more than 16 times?
We’ve seen running backs have 20+ touchdown seasons. It may not be likely, but it’s certainly in Robinson’s range of outcomes.
Fantasy managers should have no reservations about drafting Robinson in the first round. Even though he’s never played an NFL snap, he’s as sure of a thing as you will get at the RB position. I expect him to be an immediate star and the consensus RB1 entering the 2024 season.
