There’s no debate over the best running back in fantasy football. That’s Christian McCaffrey. But who comes next? One of the names in contention is Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson.
With his historically inept head coach gone and a massive QB upgrade on tap, can Robinson challenge CMC for overall RB1 status in 2024?
Should You Select Bijan Robinson at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 6th Overall (RB3)
- RB1 Potential: Bijan Robinson was one of the most exciting rookies heading into the 2023 season, and while he didn’t live up to the RB1 hype, he still showed plenty of promise. With a new coaching staff and a massive quarterback upgrade, Robinson is poised to challenge for overall RB1 status in 2024.
- 2024 Outlook: Robinson’s talent is undeniable, and with Zac Robinson taking over as offensive coordinator, Robinson is expected to be heavily featured in the Falcons’ offense. His proficiency as a receiver and ability to make defenders miss make him a dual threat who can thrive in all game situations.
- ADP Comparison: Robinson is currently being drafted as the RB3, 6th overall. This reflects the fantasy community’s belief in his upside and potential for significant progression in his second year. While his 2023 season was a bit underwhelming, his talent and situation make him a strong candidate for the top of the draft board.
- Final Verdict: Robinson is a high-upside pick that can justify his draft position as high as No. 2 overall. With the potential for 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns in a much-improved offense, Robinson is a player to target early in fantasy drafts. There’s no wrong choice between him and Breece Hall as the RB2, but I lean towards Robinson.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Bijan Robinson
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
1) CeeDee Lamb, WR | Dallas Cowboys
2) Christian McCaffrey, RB | San Francisco 49ers
3) Tyreek Hill, WR | Miami Dolphins
4) Bijan Robinson, RB | Atlanta Falcons
5) Breece Hall, RB | New York Jets
6) Ja’Marr Chase, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
7) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Detroit Lions
8) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
9) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
10) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Detroit Lions
Robinson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Perhaps I shouldn’t admit this, but there was a point during August of last year when I considered ranking Robinson as the overall RB1 … as a rookie. That’s how excited I was about his prospects. Fortunately, I came to my senses and left McCaffrey ahead of him.
While I avoided what would have looked horrible in hindsight, the process behind being super high on Robinson was there. The history of early first-round running backs producing very well in fantasy is strong. That, combined with Robinson’s obvious talent, made him worthy of being a first-round pick in fantasy. Unfortunately, we all failed to adequately account for Arthur Smith.
The Falcons’ former head coach oversaw a team that took a mega-talented running back at No. 8 overall and decided that guy wasn’t deserving of seeing more than 47% of his team’s carries. Why? Because he needed to give the ball to (checks notes) fifth-round sophomore RB Tyler Allgeier and 31-year-old WR/RB convert Cordarrelle Patterson.
BIJAN ROBINSON GETS LOOSE 💨
The #Falcons offense is rolling today!#DirtyBirds | #NFL
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 7, 2024
Replacing Smith as head coach is Raheem Morris — a defensive guy. What Morris won’t do is get in the way of his new offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, who hails from the Sean McVay school of coaching.
If there’s one thing we know about McVay, it’s that he prefers one running back. Whether it was Todd Gurley, Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson, Sony Michel, or Kyren Williams, McVay wants to feed his guy.
The only special talent of that group is Gurley. Now, Zac Robinson, who learned from McVay, gets to work with Bijan, who is, in fact, a special talent. Zac is likely to lean heavily on Bijan.
Despite underwhelming fantasy managers last season, the Falcons’ RB wasn’t exactly a disaster. He still averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game. And that includes his 0.3 points from the infamous “headache-gate” game.
Robinson showed proficiency as a receiver, leading all running backs with a 17.2% target share. In total, he led the position in routes run. Robinson was also effective at making defenders miss, as evidenced by his 23.2% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate (11th in the league) and 3.83 yards created per touch (12th).
Is Robinson a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
It’s very easy to fall into the trap of not drafting players who burned you the year before. While that often comes with a drop in ADP, making taking them again more palatable, Robinson should certainly be exempt even with his ADP rising.
Robinson is going as the RB2, No. 5 overall. The fantasy community is giving Robinson a complete mulligan for his 2023 season. Significant progression is baked into his ADP.
Bijan Robinson sighting 👀🔥
Thanks, Arthur Smith.#DirtyBirds pic.twitter.com/2KO474pbia
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 26, 2023
Even with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, Robinson could easily have averaged 17+ fantasy points per game last season had he had a remotely competent head coach.
Now, not only is Robinson poised to see a boost from proper usage, but he will see a boost from Kirk Cousins making this offense better as a whole. Robinson is a threat for 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns this season. It’s in his range of outcomes.
It’s very much a toss-up between him and Breece Hall as the RB2. There’s no wrong answer. I lean toward Robinson and have him ranked in the No. 2 spot. You can justify Robinson as high as No. 2 overall.